JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS

2004 AFC SOUTH NFL PREVIEW & PREDICTION :

Note: Due to an increase in requests for our columist's picks, advice, and entertaining columns, we have started a newsletter that will be emailed to those of you who sign up for it at no charge. To sign up, simply click on this email info@wagercom.com, put your email address in the message box and hit send. We will not give your email address to anyone and we do not send out junk mail.


The Racing Season

I am not an alcoholic – or at least not a good one. But I hear stories about people who are (or at least I have watched after-school specials about them). And they have this interesting attitude that even a single glass of wine will send them spiraling towards the abyss of drunkenness and debauchery. Though that doesn’t sound too bad, to them it is something to be truly avoided. But let us assume that you are one of those tee-totaling miscreants – how could one little taste of the juice hurt you? Or at least that is what I asked myself before today. For today I had my first sip of the wagering whiskey. (If you don’t count the entire basketball season and play-offs where Mr. AC took care of bidness for me.)

So my ‘office’ is in Del Mar, California and my desk abuts the window. From my perch, behind my computer (filled with NFL stats) I look down directly at the Del Mar Race Track. Normally this is filled with carnival rides and pedophiles – but today is the beginning of the racing season at Del Mar. And I can smell the wagers. The sound of the bugle announcing each race is like a little shot of heroin screaming through my bloodstream. The cries of the crowd as the horses take off is glittery cocaine to me. And the glittering lights of the tote board is that breath-taking-ly beautiful glass of ice and expensive bourbon.

I understand the AA wackos, I get it. After that first race (that began minutes ago) I have a craving stronger than my need for porn eating me inside. I need to bet, I need to wager, I need to gamble – I need to live. Thank God preseason football begins in weeks.

As an aside – the racing season doesn’t only bring horses and gambling – it also brings every hot girl in Northern San Diego County – I am not sure how many of our feckless readers have been to North County but these girls are HOT. Not cute, not attractive, they are Jihad Hot, they are crusade hot, and they are atomic hot. And now they are all drinking and wearing revealing outfits outside my window. God Bless America.

So let’s harness that energy and continue our romp through the NF of L.

Who’s in the AFC South?

2003 Results

Team--------------------------------------Record ATS

Indianapolis Dolts...................................11-7-1

Tenn Titans..............................................11-7

Jacksonville Jokes...................................7-8-1

Texas Tigers (v. Left Wing Wieners)....9-7

The Dolts (Indianapolis Colts)

What can anyone really say about the Dolts? They have a prima donna QB who stole the MVP award last season and a coach literally named, Tony Dummy. Or was it Dungy? Either way you have a team with what should be a real chance at winning it all – and yet, there is NO chance they win the superbowl next year. Let me break it down for you.

Peyton Manning has been given everything his whole life and mostly because of his daddy being an NFL QB and the pride of his college. I am not saying that Peyton doesn’t have great athletic talent. I would not be stupid enough to say that he doesn’t have an incredible understanding of the game (Would Heidi Fleiss’s daughter be well prepared to be a Madam – probably). But what I am saying is that those very things that got him to where he is today are the same things that will prevent him from actually winning it all – that and his team’s lack of a defense.

Let me wax philosophical here for a second. Life on this planet of ours is tough. And what is more is that in the more ‘market driven’ parts of the world, competition is fiercest. The title of ‘NFL quarterback’ is sought after by virtually every kid that ever laces up cleats here in the US. So the market for NFL QBs is amply full. I also think that physical ability is more evenly distributed than one would think. Or in other words, the difference in physical potential between Ladanian Tomlinson and Justin Fargas is just not that large. Similarly, the difference between Gayton Manning and Sage Rosenfels isn’t that large. What makes the difference is the capacity for hard work and sacrifice. This is where I think it gets rough for someone like Gayton. He just hasn’t had to struggle in life the way that other players have. I agree that people react differently to this set-backs and difficulties. The players we see in the NFL are a very specific set – the very best of the best. But I just don’t think that Gayton has the necessary heart to win it all. He cracks under the most extreme pressure because he just hasn’t ever had to really test himself. And that is why the Colts won’t win with him.

Diatribes aside, the Colts have much talent. They have a stud at RB who is regaining his old form in the Edge, (Edgerrin James). The receiving corps is mind numbingly good. And they have a fine kicker. Their defense is weak and getting weaker.

Prediction

The dolts play alright and win a few games though they won’t live up to their potential (or at least in the eyes of the handicappers) so they will do badly ATS. Look for them to finish 2nd in the AFC South.

Tennessee Titans

I have much love and much respect for Mr. McNair. In many ways, he is the anti-gayton. He is tough, he is gutty and he makes everyone around him better. It is relatively easy to go on a long drive with Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James, try rolling out kooks like McCareins, Drew ‘don’t call me Bledsoe or Edgar’ Bennet and Eddie George (class of 1982 at Ohio State). If you are getting results with these guys, then you are showing me something. Our friend Stevie actually had a higher QB rating than Gayton Manning. And that is with a significantly inferior offense cast and multiple injuries. So the QB spot is spoken for in Tenn. But the rest of the offense is wanting. George is old, injury prone and slow [and as of 7/22/04 – released]. Chris Brown, the kid from Colorado (and we know what that means – hummers at recruiting parties) is a stud – so you’ve got some help there. But they did lose McCareins so their receiving corps is a little bit weaker. All in all their offense is going to be just ok, maybe good.

Their Defense is another issue entirely. They were 13th in the NF of L in terms of points allowed – but they lost their stud Jevon Kearse and Robaire Smith. So they need to refuel their D-line. Their secondary remained intact – yee haw. Boy did they need help there. And their linebacking corp is good.

All in all, I am not floored by this team’s talent so much as I am impressed by their heart and their coach.

Prediction

Titans take the South – and then decimated in the first round of the playoffs as age and injury catch up to this old team.

Jax (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Break yourself fool.

I don’t want to say too much about this team. The bottom line is that they have a legit future star at QB in Leftwich and they have a all-universe back (when he stays healthy) in Fred Taylor. Their receiving corps needed work and they went out and drafted Reggie Williams, a STUD from UDub. They also added Greg Jones from FSU (Na-na-nah-nahhhhh – half-assed tomahawk chop). So they drafted well, but they are young.

Their D just needs work. They were in the bottom half of the pack last year – but they lost some key personnel, including Tony Brackens.

They are going to be a fine 8-8, 7-9, 9-7 type team. Blah.

Prediction

Third in their division and generally uninteresting.

Houston Texans (Enron Boys)

I have no interest in the Texans. They will suck again this year. They will improve over their recent performance (easy to do when you rank second to last in offense and defense).

So let’s do this quickly.

1) QB – Carr – fine skills – but a total fairy because he let’s his wife force him to wear a wedding ring during games. This is only funny because that is the one three-hour block per week that she can actually keep visual tabs on the guy – it is hard to boink a cheerleader on national television and not have anyone notice. Maybe she should let him concentrate on his football as that is the only thing they’ve got. What a bitch.

2) RB – Domanick Davis – exciting but young and hasn’t been tested for a whole season. I give him a B+ and expect him to miss at least one or two games.

3) WRs – Andre Johnson, Babar Gaffney and Corey Bradford – Again, fine, but not thrilling. Johnson is a baller and Gaffney and Bradford are good #2 receivers. This is nothing to get a stiffy over.

4) TE – Tight ends just don’t matter. The last tight end to matter was Kellen Winslow. The rest are glorified blockers who occasionally lumber in to the end zone and then have a less then spectacular end zone dance. All of you Jeremy Shock-thumb fans and Tony Gonzo fans out there should ask your self if those guys ever broke a game open. I will give you the answer, NO.

5) Defense – PATHETIC – Bad and not necessarily any better this year. They let a guy named Steve Martin go. He was a DL for them. How can you let the only legit comedian on your team bail on you? Really?

Prediction

Look for them to get smoked all year. They will be on their knees more often than Monica Blewinsky was. These jokes are bad, but so is their team. Can you imagine only being able to watch and bet on the Texans all year. Suicide would be the only answer.

Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board

To sign up to receive this column each week by email simply click on: info@wagercom.com, put your email address in the message box and hit send.

Check the current point spreads and game lines.