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2004 AFC WEST NFL PREVIEW & PREDICTION :

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Stank on the Hang-low

I don’t know how many of you are familiar with the aforementioned phrase – but it is poetic in its simplicity. It is also complex and deep. But that analysis is for another time.

I think this division, the AFC West embodies much of the stank on the hang-low. They are dirty and dark, yet pleasant and sometimes aromatic.

Who’s in the AFC West?

2003 Results

Team--------------------------------------Record ATS

KC Chefs...............................................11-7-1

John Elway is Dead.............................11-7

Oakland Rapers....................................7-8-1

Your SD Chargers..................................9-7

The Chefs (Kansas City Chiefs)

The Chefs are much the same team they were last year. In fact, they had precious few changes in the off season. And if I were 13-4 I would be unwilling to change very much too. But this is where it gets problematic for the Chiefies.

They aren’t that good. And if you read my column last year you would have heard me say they would not get deep in the play-offs. And I am going to say it again this year. This is an 8-8 team. They have a good offense. Priest “John” Holmes is awesome – or at least he put up awesome numbers last year. I thought that the last two years were somewhat an anomaly – but actually he has been dropping bombs for some time now. Too bad he is only half the equation. The passing game is the other half and there, there are issues. Trent Green looks too much like Tony Robbins and their receiving corps is led by Tony Gonzalez (from your California Golden Bears), a tight end. This should be a giant red flag. In the NFL you need to be able to go deep.

On defense, they sucked last year (ranking 29th in yards allowed) and didn’t do a single thing in the off season to address this problem. Look for the Chiefs to be a huge disappointment.

Prediction

They’ll finish third in the AFC West and miss the play-offs. They are just lucky that the Bolts are in their division or else they’d be last.

Denver Broncos

This team is a real threat to win it all. And I have only said that about the Ravens thus far. The fundamental reason for this thinking is that they have one of the best coaches in the game. Shania Twain (Mike Shanahan) really must have figured some things out. He has been there for like nine years and won two super bowls. And frankly, John Elway just wasn’t that great. So you had to put much of the love squarely on the shoulders of Shania. The guy can seemingly manufacture big time backs and his defense, if not the most talented, always comes to play.

So let’s look at the raw materials he has to work with. On offense, they went and did the unthinkable (oh no they didn’t) they traded away all-universe back, Clinton Portis. But they did it for the only good reason, they wanted to build a real, top-notch defense. And I am fairly sure that Champ Bialy (you love the bagel reference here – you just do) is a good start. So he has a real winner at QB, Jake (the snake) Plummer. And this guy is the real deal – he finds ways to win. At ASU he took a crappy club and made them play an inspired brand of football. Sure, he had some problems making the Arizona Cardinals look good, but I bet Johhny Unitas, Joe Montana and Bart Starr would combine for something less than a 500 record out in the Desert. You have 17 running backs that all could be good – Mike Anderson, Quentin Griffin, Garrison (if you cut me open I bleed 49er orange) Hearst and Tatum Bell. Some amalgam of those cats will produce the necessary 1500 yards rushing they’ll need. Rod Smiff is getting old and slow, but Ashley is a gamer. So the offense is going to be solid, perhaps even better than last year as Plummer won’t be hurt this year.

Now the Defense was strong in ’03 – ranking fourth overall and I would argue that they have improved. Chump Billy can play and they added a few other big names – Marco Coleman, Luther ‘vandross’ Ellis, Raylee Johnson, John ‘I cause more pain than polio’ Lynch and they drafted stud linebacker, DJ Williams from Miami. So now you have the core of what could be the number one or two defense in the NFL.

Prediction

The Broncos are a contender this year. They win the AFC West with ease and vie for the giant sombrero this year.

Oaktown Rapists (Oakland Raiders)

This team is very interesting. They are good. Let me say this again, they are a good team. They are going to shock many people this year. They ditched their half-wit coach and they built up their defense.

On defense they added many names and some of them are ballers. They picked up Dwayne ‘wayne’ Rudd, Ray Buchanan, Ted Washington (a wrestling champion) and Warren Sapp – who ties with Ray Lewis as the best attitude for a defensive player. I was crying tears of joy when he went nose to nose with that opposing coach (Mike Sherman) last year. So their defensive attitude will be improved as well as their personnel.

On offense they had some issues – namely an injury to Gannon and their receivers are starting to feel the aches and pains associated with storming the beaches at Normandy as they were all on active duty during WWII. The Faders have a committee of second tier running backs, Fairy Collins (he is poisonous to everything he touches – look for the offense to have problems as he will want to start and he is equivalent to half of an injured Gannon), Jerry Rice and Tim Brown and a revamped O-line. Sounds great to me.

All kidding aside – the offense is good and just had a real off year last year. They’ll be better this year. Also, they have added enough talent to both sides of the ball to really have a turn around. I think the Raiders will shock the world this season.

Prediction

Second in the AFC West and look to make real money on them early in the season when everyone expects them to continue to suck. But one caveat here, if Kerry Collins starts, think about only betting against them.

The Bolts (San Diego Chargers)

I am fairly sure that not only does no one want to watch the Chargers play – they certainly don’t want to read about them.

Let me sum it up very quickly. LT is the most dominant running back in the NFL today (don’t get me started on Ricky Williams – though I did write him a fan letter and you can read it by clicking here letter to ricky williams), no one else on the Chargers is good. They drafted a good QB, but he won’t be good this year and they have no one else. I think they will challenge the 9ers as the worst team to ever put on cleats.

Prediction

This will be a trainwreck. Kids, look away. They’ll finish last in their division and close to last in the League. But at least they’ll have a high draft pick next year – maybe they can start to build a defense.

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