AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS

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AC'S NBA 2009 NBA SEASON PREVIEW, ANALYSIS, AND TOP TO BOTTOM RANKINGS:

The NBA season is almost here and I am giddier then Mark Sanford on an all you can eat hike of the Appalachian Mountains and more excited than Jessica Biel’s thong. The theme of this season is going to be Rosy Palm and her five sisters because there are five teams who have a shot to win the title (Celtics, Magic, Cavaqueers, Lakers, and Spurs) while everyone else is just the rosy palm (ok, Dallas and Portland are the two darkhorses, but those are just details). With a handful of elite teams and a plethora of truly bad teams, the league is more lopsided than a seesaw with Willie Shoemaker on one end and Kirstie Alley on the other.

In this year’s preview, AC will not only break down each team and rank them by expected best record in each conference, but he will also give you one fantasy basketball sleeper per team. So take out your pencil and some paper and enjoy the ride.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics:

The Celtics could legitimately win 70+ games this season, really. This team is deeper than Emily Dickinson reading Kierkegaard at the bottom of the Voronya cave. There has not been a team this well-rounded since the great Celtics and Lakers teams of the 1980s. They are more well rounded than Jennifer Lopez’s ample buttocks. They basically have the team that won 66 regular season games and the title two years ago only they have:

A. Replaced James Posey with RaWeed Wallace. Sure, RaWeed may have lost a step, and sure Posey is one of the best big game players outside of Robert Horry, but the difference in talent levels between Wallace and Posey is like the difference in acting levels between Meryl Streep and Paris Hilton. Wallace is a legitimate all-star talent and one could argue he was the best player on a team that won the championship (one could also argue that he was the craziest player to ever lead a team to a championship as well). Posey is/was a solid player who excels through effort, but he in no way has the physical tools of Wallace. This has the potential to be the biggest upgrade since Seal left his girlfriend for Heidi Klum.

B. Replaced the aging carcass of Sam Cassell with Marquis Daniels. Daniels may not be a true point guard but he can flat out play basketball. He doesn’t have a defined position but he competes and knows how to score the ball. Sam Cassell was basically just a figure head (literally and figuratively), Marquis Daniels is going to contribute.

C. Replaced Leon Powe with an improved Big Baby Davis. You know what happened in the playoffs last year? Our little Big Baby done all growed up. Davis averaged 16 points and 6 rebounds when forced into a starting role during last year’s playoffs. He added a nice 15 to 20 foot jumper and continued to display impressive footwork and girth in defending taller players. Yes, the Celtics will miss Leon Powe, he is/was one of the great stories of the NBA, but the improved Big Baby will contribute just as much, if not more, than Powe did in 2007-2008. Just think about it, the Celtics 9th/10th man dropped 16 and 6 in the Eastern Conference Finals. That is deep.

D. An improved and killer Rajon Rondo. Since breaking out against the Bulls in last year’s playoffs, he has endured criticism from Danny Ainge, heard his name in various trade rumors, and realized he is in a contract year. Sure at times he shoots worse than Dick Cheney at a quail hunt, but he also has a knack for hitting clutch jumpers (anyone remember his 3 pointers that kept Boston in it in the Finals 2 years ago?). This guy is going to be motivated with a capital “Fuck You.” In a recent preseason game against New Jersey in which Pierce, KG, and Ray Allen all sat out, Rondo begged Doc Rivers to keep him in with Celtics down 11 points in the 4th quarter. He wanted to win, and guess what? He brought them back to victory. You don’t see that drive in many other places in the NBA. Hide the women and children when the Celtics come to your arena this year because Rondo’s on the loose and he’s gonna be wearing his fucking shorts (and no, I have no idea what that means).

Of course, the issues with this team are always going to be injuries and Doc Rivers’ reliance on doing stupid things when the games are on the line.

As for injuries, we still don’t know 100% what was wrong with KG’s knee. Solving P vs NP is easier to do than getting a straight answer about what happened. It was a bone spur, it was the tendon, there were staples involved, the bone spur was bigger than Vern Troyer, etc.. Honestly, there is no way to know if KG can stay healthy but it almost doesn’t matter because the Celtics went out and signed RaWeed Wallace as their KG insurance. Now RaWeed is certainly no KG, but Boston was one win away from making the Finals last year without KG, so adding RaWeed to their team, even taking KG out of the equation should still propel them to the Finals.

In terms of Doc’s coaching moves, it’s just something with which Celtics fans have to live. Doc does a great job of motivating his players but then he makes indefensible tactical errors like leaving Eddie House on the bench for about 15 games too long in 2008 and inserting Tony Allen into the line-up at the worst possible times. Even though Tony Allen is slated to be the 11th man, I have no doubt that Doc Rivers will put him in at a crucial juncture during the season and he will somehow fuck it up. Tony Allen is like kryptonite for winning and yet Doc always finds just the right time to put him in to totally screw things up. Either Tony Allen has incriminating pictures of Rivers at the donkey show in Tijuana, or Doc is slightly less mentally challenged than a sock puppet. I wrote this after Allen/Rivers blew Game 6 last year vs. the Bulls “I will never forgive Doc Rivers for Game 6 against Chicago in 2009. Never.” and I stand by it. I’d compare Tony Allen to herpes, since the Celtics just can’t get rid of him, but that would be an insult to herpes.

In short, this team may go through the league as rapidly and forcefully as Nipsey Russell went through Hollywood starlets in the 1970s.

Fantasy Sleeper: Rajon Rondo

Ok, this isn’t much of a sleeper but Rondo fills up a box score like Peter North fills up a box. He is a sleeper in that he should be picked in the second or third round and he may slip as ESPN currently has him ranked 7th among point guards and 29th overall.

2. Orlando Magic

This team has gone from more full of shit than Kobayashi after the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest to completely legitimate this offseason. In the playoffs, they were starting Rafer Alston (and again, it wasn’t the Rucker league playoffs), they had no slashers to create their own shots, and their low post game was less developed than the republican health care plan. They won last year because they created match-up issues, they played a severely injured Celtics team, and they shot out of their minds from three point range. Two of those three are not likely to be repeated. So how did they become less full of shit?

A. Well for one, they are adding back Jameer Nelson who was the best player on the team before his injury. Look, I still have no idea how Nelson did it but I can attest that I saw him at the beginning of the year and he absolutely dominated the game. I am now nicknaming him The Underpants Gnome after the great South Park episode which featured gnomes who would steal underpants. When they were asked why they were stealing underpants, they simply responded “Step 1: Steal underpants. Step 3: profit.” Well Nelson went from Step 1: Being a marginal NBA player, to Step 3: Being an all-star, and fuck if I can tell how he did it.

AC was a charter member of the Jameer Nelson fan club for years until he jumped off of it before last year. So perhaps that was the motivation Jameer needed. All I know is that he was a top five point guard before getting injured and it is impossible to underestimate the value of a good NBA point guard. Getting Nelson back and healthy is going to be bigger for the Magic than when Bobby Brown went back to New Edition.

B. D-White Howard isn’t going to get worse. The guy is a force on defense and the boards and his offensive game has nowhere to go but up. Howard has yet to peak and while he may never be Olajuwon on offense, he’s also likely to be better than the Greg Kite level at which he currently plays.

C. Swapping Hedo Turkoglu for a man with a vagina (Vince Carter) may seem like a lateral move, but it has the potential to be a huge plus for them. Look, we all know there are serious questions about Vince Carter’s effort, desire, and sexuality, but he is still a phenomenal talent when motivated and this is a tailor made situation for him. With Nelson as the vocal leader and Howard as the big star, Carter will not have pressure on him to carry the team. Plus, the biggest problem with the Magic in last year’s playoffs was their reliance on the three point shot. They had no one who could drive to the basket and create their own shot. This is exactly what Carter can bring to them. Sure he has gotten away from driving to the basket as he tries to avoid contact like most people try to avoid AIDS, but I think this team will be able to turn him around. He will have D-White Howard protecting him too, so that should help.

.

We all know there is risk of Carter living in Orlando by the beach and thus being exposed to getting too much sand in his vagina, but he really is in a perfect spot . Hedo was a great fit for this team, but taking heart, effort, and banging chicks out of the equation, is there anything he has or can do better than Vince Carter?

D. They may have lost key bench player and AC favorite, Courtney Lee, but they increased the bench depth. Orlando will be rolling “the flying Frenchman” Mikael Piertrus, Matt Barnes, Brandon Bass, Marcin Gortat, and even little JJ Redick off the bench. That is strong.

Fantasy Sleeper: Mickael Pietrus

Pietrus was injured most of last year but came on in the playoffs like the novel Ask The Dust, out of nowhere and fucking strong. He will get steals, hit 3s, and score some points. He’s certainly not an early round pick, but if you’re in round 12 and he’s on the board, you might want to take a shot with him. Remember, Vince Carter likes missing games and Courtney Lee is gone, so Pietrus will be taking Carter’s minutes when his vaginitis flares up.

3. Cleveland Cavaqueers?

While most people are picking the Cavs to win the East, Cleveland has four major problems:

1. The Celtics have a chance to be one of the greatest teams ever.

2. The Magic are just a better all around team (despite the loss of Courtney Lee, which will be a big loss for them).

3. The Cavs have been extremely lucky injury-wise over the past 2 years.

4. Cleveland is ridden with crime, joblessness, and shitty weather (ok, this has nothing to do with the Cavs, but it is a major problem with Cleveland. I mean what can be good about a city when it is best known for steamers?).

In the playoffs last year, the Cavs supporting cast played smaller than a legless Herve Villechaize. While this team is made for the regular season where pressure is irrelevant, they have been extremely lucky over the past few years as LeDong has been injury free. I think they try to rest LeDong a bit more this year or his luck runs out. It’s still a one man team and any slip up from the King kills the Cavs chances.

As for the Shaq acquisition, it is neither here nor there. It’s like window dressing at an Apple store (mostly unnecessary and not worth the expense). He really only helps them in a match-up against Orlando as watching Ilgauskus try to guard D-White Howard in last year’s playoffs was more painful than having one’s asshairs pulled out one by one with burning hot shards of glass. Honestly, it was more pathetic than watching a two legged dog play fetch or Ray Romano act. So Shaq should help them against Orlando where he can clog the lane on defense and get a big, relatively able body on Howard. Against the Celtics though, he is irrelevant. He’ll be guarding Kendrick Perkins, the 5th option on offense, so won’t really bother Boston too much, while his offense will be stoppable by Perkins on defense.

Quick fact: You know why Delonte West was carrying 3 guns? Because he couldn’t carry four.

Fantasy Sleeper: JJ Hickson

I don’t know if the playing time will be there, but this guy can score the ball. If he is able to break into the line-up, he could be ridiculously productive. Remember this in the last round when you are debating between Eddie House and Matt Barnes.

4. Atlanta Hawks

First of all, it is irrelevant who finishes after third in the Eastern Conference. Bea Arthur has a better chance of beating Carmen Kinsley, Alexis Texas, and Carmella Bing in a “great ass” contest than anyone other than Cleveland, Boston, or Orlando does of winning the East, and not only is Bea Arthur dead, but she was a man.

The Hawks do have a nice little team though. In the .00000001% chance there is an upset in the East it will be from the Hawks since:

A. They have three upside guys in Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, and Jamal Crawford. What I mean by that is that at any given time, either one of those three could get hot enough to take over a game.

B. They are ridiculously athletic with Smith, Horford, and Marvin Williams.

C. They can play small, they can bang (with Zaza Pachulia), they can bring in scorers (Jamal Crawford), they have glue guys (Maurice Evans), and they have rookie upside (Jeff Teague). This is really a nice little team.

D. Mike Bibby may have been around when cassette tapes were still big but good point guards absolutely make a difference.

E. Al Horford is like the anti-Al Jefferson. He plays solid defense, he lets his offense come to him, and he loves to win. He is intense and not afraid of pressure. Exactly the kind of guy you want in the playoffs, and he is getting better.

Fantasy Sleeper: Marvin Williams

He’s no all-star but his numbers have been solid for three years in a row averaging 14 points, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, and only 1 turnover, while shooting 80%+ from the line. Plus his three pointers shot way up last year. Oh yeah, he just turned 23. You can definitely sneak him in when people start drafting rookies and Ramon Sessions.

5. Chicago Bulls

The Bulls showed they have some spunk in last year’s playoffs against the injury depleted Celtics (though not as much spunk as Lexington Steele after taking a month off from work), but they are far behind the top three teams in the East.

No matter how hard it is to admit, they will absolutely miss Ben Gordon this year as he single-handedly won two playoff games for them last year (though he probably lost at least two as well). Gordon never saw a shot he didn’t like. Imagine what it would be like to walk into your local Rick’s Cabaret with $10k and you had spend it all that night (like Monty Brewster). Your eyes would light up, your heart would beat faster, and you would be throwing money left and right so fast, you might not even have time to get herpes. Well that is exactly how Ben Gordon feels every time he steps onto a basketball court and gets the ball. His eyes light up and he has to chuck up shots. He is the dictionary definition of a chucker.

Now granted Bulls fans liked Gordon like Charles Nelson Reilly liked vagina, but he came up big for them in big situations. Sure they get Luol Deng back and Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose should be a year better (while Tyrus Thomas should be a year worse), but they will miss his ability to take games over.

The Bulls do have a decent future with Derrick Rose who is what I believe is referred to as a basketball idiot savant, like Rain Man was with numbers or Jenna Jameson is with penis. The guy was born to play basketball and he is going to be great at it, but have you heard him talk off the court? He’s like a mentally challenged Chris Burke (plus there is that little thing about him not being able to get an adequate score on the SATs for fucking Memphis. Honestly, do you know how hard it is to get into Memphis? A sno-cone was their class valedictorian. They literally have students who got a six on the SAT as TAs).

The point is, despite the tease that is Luol Deng coming back (and AC has been on and off the Deng bandwagon so many times his ass is chapped), the Bulls are just too young and not quite talented enough to be relevant. Heck, with Vinny Del Negro coaching them, they could finish as low as 10th.

Fantasy Sleeper: Luol Deng

He did have a season averaging 19 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 steal, while shooting 52% from the floor. That is a nice line for a guy who will likely be forgotten come draft time.

6. Detroit Pistons

I was all set to crap all over the Pistons like a fat man after a night of drinking at an all you can eat spicy burrito bar and pick them to not make the playoffs, but then I looked at their roster and it is just veteran and mediocre enough for them to be finish as high as fourth in the East (and also veteran and crappy enough to finish as low as 12th), depending on Rodney Stuckey’s maturity.

They still have Rip Hamiton and Tayshaun Prince and now have added Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Wilcox (who can play when he is not too busy smoking the sticky icky). That is a decent veteran line-up so it all comes down to Stuckey being able to distribute the ball, play defense, and control the pace. I honestly have no idea if he can do that but this team has a very “last year’s Denver Nuggets” feel to them in that they could be better than the sum of their parts (if of course Stuckey can play the point).

I am mildly intrigued by this team, but then again I was also mildly intrigued by midget porn and the first 150 pages or so of The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier & Clay, so buyer beware.

Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Wilcox

Wilcox is a career 53% shooter from the floor and had a 3 year stretch of averaging 14 points and 7.5 rebounds. He’s not great, but this is a horrific front court where he will get some minutes (though it’s largely horrific because players like him will be getting minutes. Chicken meet egg, egg meet chicken, now go scramble.).

7. Washington Wizards

This Wizards team has claimed the title of most full of shit team in the NBA, and it’s not even close. NBA analysts are drooling all over this team like a 12 year old who just found out about spankwire.com. What they are neglecting to remember is that:

1. Flip Saunders sucks as a coach.

2. Gilbert Arenas hasn’t been healthy since before Facebook or Twitter existed.

3. Antawn Jamison is a year older (and now he is injured, surprise, surprise).

4. Randy Foye has yet to do anything other than suck at basketball.

5. Their front line of Javale McGee, Dominic McGuire, Brendan Haywood, and Andre Blatche have the offensive skills of lint.

So how can I pick them to make the playoffs if they are so full of shit? Have you looked at the rest of the Eastern Conference? The rest of the teams are more flawed than Tara Reid’s stomach or the plot in a Michael Bay movie. With the Wizards, you can at least say that there is some upside with Caron Butler, maybe Arenas being healthy, Jamison not losing too many steps, the emerging Nick Young, and Mike Miller (side note: I am told John Amaechi and Kendall Gill love what he has done to his hair) bringing some stability. The team has ball players, but the lack of a point guard and injuries could make them irrelevant.

Fantasy Sleeper: Nick Young

Young is a bit of an old school player in that he can shoot lights out, just not from 3. He’s like a poor man’s Rip Hamilton. If he can get some time, he will produce. I wouldn’t draft him, but I’d keep him on my watch list.

8. Indiana Pacers:

This is AC’s one sleeper pick for the year in the Eastern Conference, but it’s not because they’re good, it’s because they are a tiny bit less bad than everyone else. You all know AC thinks Jim O’Braindead is one of the worst coaches in the NBA, but he is good at getting his players to give effort so this team will come to play every night which is more than 95% of the league and should give them10 wins right off the bat. The last playoff spot could be theirs, heck they could even finish as high as 6th, but in the end, they will still be a crappy team.

With Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy maybe coming back, the emergence of Roy Hibbert and Brandon Rush, the underrated Troy Murphy, and the speedy TJ Ford, O’Brien has the type of team to fit his awful system. Push the ball, shoot threes, and pack in the lane on defense (hence the importance of Hibbert). Don’t get me wrong, this team absolutely sucks, but again, have you seen the rest of the Eastern Conference?

Even though this team is whiter than the Calgary Flames, they could surprise some people. Speaking of which, are the Flames still in Calgary? Anyone? Seriously, I have no idea. Maybe we should ask Troy Murphy, or Tyler Hansbrough, or Mike Dunleavy (ok, I think you get the point).

Fantasy Sleeper: Roy Hibbert

I know, AC shit on Roy Hibbert last year like Hibbert was starring in a German scat film (Is that redundant? Are there non-German scat films?) but he has had a nice preseason. Hibbert is averaging 12 points and 7 boards with 3.5 blocks per game in 24 minutes a night in the preseason. Those blocked shots could be huge. In fantasy basketball, you need a three point specialist and a shot blocker. I guarantee you can grab Hibbert in round 11 or so and that could be a team changing pick. I know the guy is not an athlete, but he is huge and has some skill. AC now has one toe on the Hibbert bandwagon, and it’s his pinky toe, which has a bit of fungus growing on it, but still.

9. Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers’ season really comes down to the question of whether this is the year that Lou Williams finally breaks out. For them to succeed, it sure as shit better be.

With the departure of Andre Miller, the starting point guard job is all Lou’s to lose and I have a bad feeling about how it is going to work out. As loyal wagercom.com readers know, AC has had a stiffy for Lou Williams since summer league 2007. The guy is an amazing athlete, he can run, he can jump, he could probably even do both while chewing gum, patting his head, and singing the alphabet backwards, but he’s not a point guard. Square peg, round hole. Williams should be a poor man’s Allen Iverson or a modern day Dee Brown. He is an athletic freak. Just give him the ball and tell him to go get it. Having him dribble and try to distribute is just not his game. This won’t end well, but some team will be smart enough to trade for Lou and use him as a deadly scoring game changer off the bench.

The Sixers actually have a pretty good front line in Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Andre Igoudala at the 3, Grandpa Brand, and even the failed abortion that is Samuel Dalembert, and were fairly competitive with Andre Miller last year. But even with a year more experience and getting Brand back (though he may be more cooked than a fresh batch of meth), they will likely win fewer games as going from Miller to Williams is all wrong.

The good news for the Sixers is that no one will be there to see it. Sixers games this year will be emptier than Dane Cook’s stand up routine and emptier than all of my hopes and dreams. Philadelphians are more likely to go to an all you can fuck AIDS fest than they are to attend a Sixers game. Bad team, inconvenient arena, and too expensive.

Fantasy Sleeper: Lou Willams and Marreese Speights

Ok, Lou Williams is only a kind of fantasy sleeper, probably worth taking as the 20th-25th best point guard, but just keep an eye on him. As for a deep deep sleeper, AC loves him some Marreese Speights. The guy does everything including shooting 50% from the floor. If he can wiggle into some minutes, this 22 year old could put up 15 points, 9 boards, 4 assists, and 2 blocks a night.

10. Toronto Raptors

I really want the Raptors to succeed, I love Colangelo trying to make this AC Milan West, but this team has less depth than the shallow end of He Ping Ping’s pool (and for the record that is at least three midget references, depending on how you view Willie Shoemaker, and we’re not even out of the Eastern Conference yet). Bosh, Calderon, and Turkoglu are a nice threesome (though not as nice as AC, Hannah Hilton, and that chick George Clooney is dating). After those three though, the Raptors are pretty non-existent unless you think Andrea Bargnani is ready for his break out year (hint: Don’t hold your breath).

This team could absolutely make the playoffs were this the Euroleague, but unfortunately for them it is the NBA and even in a shit year for the East, the Raptors are too shallow.

Fantasy Sleeper: Umm, Reggie Evans?

This team really lacks upside guys. Jose Calderon is going to go way too early and Marco Belinelli has yet to do anything outside of a summer league, so that leaves Reggie Evans. If he plays, he is good for 8-10 rebounds a game and if you have offensive rebounds in your league, he could be really valuable. For his career, he averages 5 offensive boards and 13 rebounds per 36 minutes. If you’re short on big men in the last round, take Evans and you’ll be able to get some extra boards.

11. Miami Heat

Dwyane Wyane Wade is surrounded by a worse supporting cast than Soleil Moon-Frye was in Punky Brewster (seriously, Henry could not act himself out of a paper fucking bag, and what was with his fake British accent? Who did he think he was, Mr. Belvedere?). Or to put it differently, he is surrounded by more shit than a used square of toilet paper. Other than Michael Beasley, the Heat have no upside players. In addition, they have no glue players and frankly no good players. Their big offseason move was to get the rotting carcass of Jamaal Magloire, and this is 2009, not 2004 which was the last time Magloire was a legitimate NBA player. Dwyane Wade is worth 30 wins, the rest of the team is worth none. Plus Wade is good to miss his usual 10+ games a year.

Things could really ugly in Miami this year, it’s a good thing Dwyane Wyane Wade has no standards.

Fantasy Sleeper: DaeQuan Cook

Every fantasy team needs a three point bomber. Cook averaged 2 three pointers per game in only 24 minutes of playing time. Over 50% of his shots from the floor were from behind the three point line. If he were white, he’d be called Kyle Korver.

12. Charlotte Bobcats:

They traded Emeka Okafor for what? No really, I need this explained to me because I must have misread the trade. What I think they traded Okafor for was Tyson Chandler and his bum foot, but that can't be right. Okafor has career averages of 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocked shots per game. He is the most underrated decent center in the league and at 27 years old, he is in his prime. And for that Charlotte only got Tyson Chandler who failed a physical last year when New Orleans tried to trade him and who shoots worse than Ray Charles (and not because Ray Charles is blind, but because he's dead and blind). This trade is nuttier than a cock sandwich with extra balls.

The NBA needs to fold at least four teams and they should start with this one. They have no fans, a horrible GM (and yes I mean you MJ), and a team with absolutely no chance, plus I still inadvertently write Hornets instead of Bobcats.

Yes, in theory this team has some ok pieces in Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell (who may be out for the year), and Larry Brown as coach, but unfortunately those pieces fit together to make a giant turd. This whole team disgusts me.

Fantasy Sleeper: DJ Augustin

He averaged 12 points, 3.5 assists, and shot 44% from 3 and ~90% from the line in his rookie year. It's not clear how he and Felton will split time at the point, but if you need assists near the end of the draft, you could get some real upside here.

13. Milwaukee Bucks:

A man walks into a bar and says: "Bartender, this bar smells like shit" and the bartender says "If you think this place smells like shit, stop by the Bucks lockerroom." Ba-da-booom.

See, that joke wasn't funny and the Bucks aren't good. While I am more excited for the Brandon Jennings era to begin than anyone other than his mom, this team has less talent than a VH1 reality show. Poor Michael Redd is stuck with this again, but at least he'll score some points for your fantasy team.

Fantasy Sleeper: Andrew Bogut

Bogut is an underrated second tier center who continues to improve. He actually shot better from the floor (57.5%) than he did from the line (57.1%) so depending on your needs, he's either a big help or a big hurt.

14. New Jersey Nets:

I am kind of on the Nets bandwagon even though they may be dreadful. They have a nice young nucleus with Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, and Courtney Lee. They have big wild cards in Yi Dingaling, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Sean "Smoke 'em if you got 'em" Williams. And they have some decent veterans in Rafer Alston, Jarvis Hayes, Keyon Dooling, and Trenton Hassell. They are a LeDong James away from being as good as Cleveland. Seriously. I think I might prefer New Jersey's non-LeDong team to Cleveland's. Let's look at this a bit more:

PG: Devin Harris vs. Mo Williams: A push at worst, but the younger, speedier Harris would seem to have the edge.

C: Brook Lopez vs Shaq/Ilguaskus: Lopez put up big numbers as a rookie and there is no reason to believe he can't put up 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 blocked shots this year. That is just as good as Shaq and he is like 72 years younger. At this point Ilgauskus is just a tall guy with bad feet who shoots from the outside. He's like a taller Lithuanian Mark Blount, if Mark Blount had a heart and were still alive.

SG: Courtney Lee vs Delonte West: Unlike West, Lee can dribble with both hands and is relatively herpe free (at least facial herpes). West is currently the better player, but Lee has way more upside, is a better defender, and is less likely to overdose, shoot someone, or shoot someone while overdosing.

Bench Veterans: Jarvis Hayes, Rafer Alston, Keyoon Doling, Trenton Hassell, Bobby Simmons vs. Anthony Parker, Anderson Varejao, Boobie Gibson, and Jamario Moon: Advantage here goes to Cleveland. Parker, Varejao, and Moon are rotation guys on any team. The Nets have decent veterans, but other than Alston, you would be pissed if one of them were starting for you.

Upsde guys: Yi Dingaling, Sean Williams, Chris Douglas-Roberts vs. JJ Hickson: While I think Hickson has a ton of potential, the Nets have three chances for upside (though I am 99.99976% certain Williams only upside is in being able to smoke more weed than Michael Beasley) vs. just one for Cleveland. Plus Dingaling should have some trade value as he could bring more Asian fans to the arena as apparently Asians like shitty basketball players.

Fantasy Sleeper: Brook Lopez

I know, he's not much of a sleeper but as I said above he is going to have a monster year. He'll likely be a top 5 fantasy center, so plan accordingly.

15. New York Knicks:

This team is so bad it makes my balls hurt and I’m not entirely sure what that means.

Here are some fun stats:

1. Through his first 5 preseason games, Larry Hughes was shooting 5% from the field. That is not a typo. He hit one of his first twenty shots. I don’t even have a joke for that.

2. Eddy Curry has yet to play in the first six preseason games, and that is actually a huge positive (pun intended).

3. Mike D’Antoni has been talking up Danilo Gallinari all preseason. There have been several features already with D’Antoni basically ball washing this guy and so far Gallinari has crapped his pants so badly he’s being recruited by Depends to be their spokesman (unfortunately for them, his English is not so good). Through the first six exhibition games, when he was not on the bench wondering when he could go back to Italy, Gallinari shot 32% from the floor and grabbed only four rebounds per game.

4. Their first round draft pick, the undersized and undertalented Toney Douglas is shooting 30% from the field, 21% from the three point line and has a 1.5:1 assist to turnover ratio. With numbers like that they might as well let him suit up for the other team.

5. Their other first round draft pick, and 8th pick of the draft, Jordan Hill, can only manage to get 13 minutes a night on this abortion of a team in the preseason and he shot a whopping 10 of 30 from the floor.

This team is poorly put together (thanks Isiah) and they are content with that because they think they can get LeDong next year. So as long as the front office isn’t going to try, neither am I. The Knicks suck, book it.

Fantasy Sleeper: Wilson Chandler

The Knicks are going to score and Chandler is going to play. He averaged 14.5 points, 5 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 steal per game last year. His FG% is awful but he hit 103 3-pointers last year after hitting only 9 the year before (in only half a season, but still). He’ll be a nice late round pick.

Western Conference:

1. LA Lakers:

They won the championship and they basically traded Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest. Now I’m not the brightest guy in the world (probably top five though), and I realize Ariza had a redonkulous playoffs last year, but swapping Ariza for Artest is a fucking home run. Honestly, I like this move so much I actually thought about taking it to brunch the next morning instead of the usual forced walk of shame.

Artest is going to be unbelievably motivated to show he can fit in and win a title. He is a lock down defender and for all the negative things about him, he always competes. I love this move as if it had big tits, a round ass, and wore a t-shirt that said Free Blumpkins.

Not only did they pick up Artest, but they have a healthy Andrew Bynum coming back. Look, I know, Bynum is the most polarizing NBA player after Greg Oden (maybe even including Oden). People either irrationally love him or think he is more overrated than Lady Gaga, but the guy has put up numbers when healthy (except in the playoffs last year).

So you have the best team from last year adding a top ten defender who is going to be hungry to win a title plus adding a young, potentially dynamic big man. Sure they still might have some distractions with Lamar Odom marrying some chick of whom I have never heard of, and sure Derek Fisher is one year older and Jordan Farmar may not be one year better, but this team is stacked like Christina Hendricks.

Fantasy Sleeper: Andrew Bynum

He’s going in rounds 5-7 in many drafts and the guys has 3rd or 4th round talent. He was putting up 20+ points, 10+ rebounds, and blocking 2+ shots in the two weeks before he got injured last year. He could be a top 3 fantasy center, and yes I said that with a straight face.

2. San Antonio Spurs:

The Spurs kidnapped Richard Jefferson from Milwaukee and now have the best starting five in the West, barring injuries. Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Duncan, and Antonio McDyess. Add to that the improving George Hill off the bench and the possible emergence of DeJuan Blair who has not only led the Spurs in scoring in the preseason (despite averaging only 18 minutes per game) but also rebounds like Eddy Curry eats (frequently and ferociously). Blair has 49 rebounds in 108 minutes of play which would yield him an average of greater than 20 a game were he to play a full 48 minutes.

The Spurs have two problems (besides the fact that they have to live in San Antonio), they are old and their bench could be exceptionally weak. Matt Bonner still figures heavily into their bench plans and while his shooting range has improved, he's still Matt Bonner. More importantly though, Ginobili is coming back from injury and Tim Duncan should start slowing down a bit. Either way, if the Spurs can stay healthy, their top five is as good as any which should be more than enough come playoff time.

Fantasy Sleeper: Dejuan Blair

Ok, I don’t know that this is much of a sleeper but this guy is just a rebounding machine. If rebounds were porn, his name would be Count Cockula. What is unclear is how many minutes he will get but remember DeJuan in round 9ish when you’re sitting on 3 point guards, 1 center, 2 shooting guards, and two small forwards and the best center left on the board is Nenad Krstic.

3. Portland Trailblazers:

Once again Portland is the deepest team in the league. They’re so deep it was rumored that Andre Miller and Brandon Roy regularly debate Dostoevsky in the locker room (and for the record, Miller believes Raskolnikov shouldn't have killed those bitches). It's hard not to like this team and yet there are so many haters. Has Portland overvalued their young players? Why would they lock up LaMarcus Aldridge for so long? Will Brandon Roy's knee hold up? Is this the year people finally appreciate Travis Outlaw? Is Joel Pryzbilla the most underrated center in the game or just a longer way to say "Koncak?" What's the deal with Martell Webster? But of course the most asked questions are about Greg Oden and whether he can show the potential that made him the #1 pick.

First of all, even if Greg Oden bombs, this team is good enough to compete, especially with the addition of Andre Miller. AC lectures about this frequently (though not as frequently as he lectures about good oral hygiene) but it is worth noting again: You can not overvalue the importance of a good point guard in the NBA. It is the easiest and quickest way to improve a team, short of signing LeDong James. Just look what Chauncey Billups did in Denver last year. Andre Miller is the most underrated good point guard in the NBA. He controls the pace of the game as well as anyone and he can be a calming presence on the floor. The upgrade from Steve Blake (who is perfectly below average) to Andre Miller is worth at least five wins.

Now as for Mr. Oden, who is leading Portland in scoring in the preseason, he has the talent to excel. The guy led his team to the college championship game as a freshman playing with one hand. Yes he is injury prone and yes he is unpolished, but the talent is there. AC has been firmly on the Oden bandwagon for three years now, it is starting to get a bit lonely, but the seats are hella comfortable. If he is half the player he was billed to be, this Trailblazer team could be scarier than Drew Barrymore's sagging lip.

Fantasy Sleeper: Andre Miller

I know I have drooled over Miller several times in this column like a newborn after a freshly squeezed teet, but he is as solid as solid can be. Look for 14 points, 7 assists, 4 rebounds and a solid shooting percentage. There is nothing fancy about Miller, but then again, there’s nothing fancy about cheese, and everyone loves cheese.

Dallas Mavericks:

This is AC's "holy shit this team is pretty good" pick that takes experts a month too long to realize it. This is Dallas' best five that they can throw on the court: Dirk, Shawn Marion, Josh Howard, Jason Kidd, and Jason Terry. Yeah, the line-up is a bit small but they have a ton of offensive fire power and Marion is still good enough on defense to cover up for Jason Kidd's ossified body (he did the same thing for Steve Nash for years).

They also sport a nifty bench with all-time dog with world class talent Tim Thomas, all-time dog with less than world class talent Eric Dampier, spunky little pg Juan Jose Barea, Kris "Put me in coach I'm ready to play" Humphries, the "can you tell us apart" classic NBA bench energy wings in James Singleton and Quinton Ross, and even summer league sensation Rodrigue “C’est la Vie” Beaubois.

This team could be sneaky good, like the movie Rocket Science or roasted beets. Plus you have to figure Dirk is going to want to prove that his off-court problems are over so he will continue to be a force.

I'm not saying they are as good as LA and SA, but in a seven game series with their five best players, they have the best chance at pulling off an upset (they also have the best chance of pulling a groin, but whatever).

Fantasy Sleeper: Kris Humphries

This is a deep, deep, deep sleeper. A deeper sleeper than Rip Van Winkle or Claudia Schiffer (How else do you explain her marriage to David Copperfield other than she was hypnotized?). Don’t draft him, just follow him and see what he does. He is putting up numbers in the preseason, but he does this just about every year. If he is going to get some run, he could get you a few blocks and score some points out of the center position.

5. Denver Nuggets

While AC dismissed this team all last year, he finally became a believer towards the end of the playoffs, just as they were getting eliminated. It was the perfect buy high, sell low play. That said, AC is mildly more impressed with them this year. They definitely reached their potential last year, and it will be hard to repeat that performance (though not as hard as it is to repeat as “sea shells” three times, go ahead and try), but as long as they have Chauncey Billups controlling the pace, they will have a chance. I can’t drill this point home enough, but point guards matter.

Fantasy Sleeper: Chris Andersen

He averaged 2.5 blocks per game and shot 55% from the field while grabbing 6 rebounds a game. Blocks are not as easy to get as you think (though easier to get than why people think Robin Williams is funny), so take a premium guy in a category while no one is paying attention. Alternatively, Arron Afflalo may also be a bit of a sleeper depending on how many teams are in your league.

6. Utah Jazz

The Jazz bring back the same title pretender as they have the past few years. This team lacks a certain “je ne sais quoi”, except actually, I know exactly what “quoi” is and that is a shooting guard who can drive to the basket and score. The Jazz currently employ Ronnie Brewer at shooting guard and here is a little known fact, he is part Gorgon because his shot is so ugly, if you actually watch it from beginning to follow through, you will turn to stone.

As always, this is a nice well-rounded team but without that go to guy in crunch time, they will never be able to make it to the upper echelon.

Fantasy Sleeper: Kyle Korver

Every team needs a three point gunner and Korver not only hits many, but he shoots them at an impressive clip. He’s a good pick up in round 11 or 12 when you realize you are woefully short on shooters. Although he is now injured, so buyer beware.

7. New Orleans Whorenets

I would have this team a lot higher if I had any faith in Byron Scott not screwing things up with his play calling and if I had any faith in Peja Stojakovic still being alive. If you throw out last year as an aberration and look back two years ago, the Whorenets were close to a top three Western conference team. Last year they dealt with injuries and Byron Scott, but it is possible that they were able to regroup and start moving forward. The point is, they won 56 games two years ago and have added Emeka Okafor, James Posey (who may have seen his best days), and a much improved Chris Paul. Sure they lost Tyson Chandler, but Okafor is a fucking animal who has been hidden in NBA Siberia for the past few years.

If this team can find some chemistry, they can finish in the top five in the West as Chris Paul is that good. It’s up to him to tune out Byron Scott and take over.

Fantasy Sleeper: Julian Wright

Well, he was supposed to break out last year and other than some bad acne, it never happened. Wright is a bit of an enigma, if an enigma were a potentially shitty basketball player. He has a ton of talent, though it’s not clear what he does well, which is good and bad. It’s good in that he’ll fill up a bunch of stat columns for you, but it’s bad in that if you don’t do one thing well, you’re not likely to get a lot of playing time. I probably wouldn’t draft Wright, but I would definitely have him on my early season watch list.

8. Phoenix Suns

Why the fuck not? No really, tell me why not? They are going to run again. Stoudemire is back and healthy. Nash is still better than average. Jason Richardson’s physical tools almost make up for his mental deficiencies. Grant Hill can still do just enough to be relevant. And Leandro Barbosa loves to score. Yeah, they play defense like it is going to give them AIDS of the penis, but the object is to score more points than the other team and score is something they can do.

More than most teams though, they are one injury away from being irrelevant (either Nash or Stoudemire), but if they can stay healthy, why the fuck not?

Fantasy Sleeper: Leandro Barbosa

Not much of a sleeper here but the Suns are going to run again and Barbosa averaged 18 points while shooting 48% from the field and 85% from the line the last time they did that. Plus with Nash aging and thus more injury prone, Barbosa could get back to playing 30+ minutes a game.

9. LA Clippers

If this weren’t the Clippers I would be picking them much higher as there is a ton of talent on this team, but how can you trust the Clippers? Didn’t Benjamin Franklin say “nothing is certain but death, taxes, and the Clippers will suck?” But just stick with me for a minute as we debate the Clips.

Point 1: They have a potentially all NBA point guard in Baron Davis.

Counterpoint: He tends to be out of shape, he is more concerned with living the LA life than winning and losing, he’s frailer than 98 year old arthritic woman with osteoporosis of the anus, and he not only shoots 40% from the floor and 32% from 3, but he chucks up shots more frequently than Seth Rogen stars in overrated unfunny movies.

Point 2: Eric Gordon is going to have a break out year.

Counterpoint: No really, he is going to have a breakout year.

Point 3: They may have the best front court in the West in Kaman, Camby, Al Thornton, and Blake Griffin.

Counterpoint: Griffin is still unproven, Camby makes Baron Davis seem like an iron man (and he is already hurt), Kaman went from being on the rise to pretty much sucking, and Al Thornton may be a classic good guy on a bad team.

Point 4: They have a decent bench in Rasual Butler, Craig Smith, and Sebastian Telfair.

Counterpoint: Those guys all suck.

Point 5: Mike Duneleavy sucks as a coach.

Counterpoint 5: Mike Dunleavy colossally sucks as a coach.

So they have the talent, it’s just one can never trust the Clippers as they always find a way to fuck things up.

Fantasy Sleeper: Eric Gordon

AC loves him some Eric Gordon. He scores, he shoots from 3, he hits his free throws, and he gets steals. He is the most under the radar good shooting guard in the game. Get him before the secret is out.

10. Oklahoma City Thunder:

AC is probably a year too early on this team but they have more upside than a night on the town with the Hawaiin Tropic girls, $50k in cash, a limo, a suite at the Ritz Carlton, and 50 grams of coke (for the ladies of course). They have the best young nucleus in the game in Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Jeff Green. In addition to that, James Harden could fill their need for another wing scorer depending on how the rookie fares (AC remains relatively unimpressed) and they have two veteran centers who won’t demand the ball and who can nicely complement the young guys in Nick Collison and Nenad Krstic. The bench has some talent in the always rehabbing Shaun Livingston, Fabo Thabo Sefolosha, and Etan Thomas and his poetry

(I will play basketball on a court,

I will play basketball near a fort.

I will rebound under the hoop,

I will rebound while taking a poop.

Basketball and rebounding,

those are for me,

oh yeah, and those groupies

swinging from bofa deez).

This is just going to be a fun team to watch as Durant can score from anywhere and Westbrook is a menace all over the court. As an additional bonus, you might get to watch B.J. Mullens who AC is predicting will be a bigger disappointment than Beverly Hills Cop II.

Fantasy Sleeper: Nick Collison

He can get you 10 points, 10 rebounds, while shooting 52% from the floor and not turning it over. A very good 3rd center to pick when you’re debating between Brendan Haywood and Reggie Evans.

11. Houston Rockets:

You can’t take away your best players and still compete. Without Bill Cosby, the Cosby show would have been Family Matters. Without Ted Danson, Cheers would have been cancelled before it even aired. And without Jerry Seinfeld, Seinfeld would have been Curb Your Enthusiasm (so, umm, scratch that last one). The point is, without Yao and Artest, and with McGrady still fat and out of shape, the Rockets just can’t compete. I don’t care what Daryl Morey’s spreadsheet says, you don’t win in the NBA without at least one all-star and ladies and gentleman, Houston has no all-stars.

You know who is leading Houston in scoring in the preseason? Carl Landry. You know who is leading the Rockets in assists this preseason? Kyle Lowry. You know who is leading the Rockets in rebounding this preseason? Joey fucking Dorsey. You get the point yet?

Look, AC loves himself some statistics. He’ll see your Bayesian probability and channel his inner Bernoulli and raise you a Gaussian distribution. AC is a firm believer in using statistics to optimize sports team, I mean look how well it has worked for Billy Beane and the Oakland A’s (ok, scratch that one too). I am glad Daryl Morey is taking an analytical approach to basketball but AC also took some numbers and put them through his excel spreadsheet, ran a macro, and pivot tabled the output. The inputs were the stats of Houston’s starting five of Aaron Brooks, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza, and Carl Landry and the output was “shitty basketball team.”

The thing is, you don’t need a computer to know that this team is going to suck. You win with stars in the NBA and this team is more devoid of stars than a show on the CW network.

Fantasy Sleeper: Chase Budinger

Chase can fill it up and shoot from three. If you’re feeling very adventurous and want to show up your league, take Pops Mensah-Bonsu. The guy rebounds, steals, and blocks shots. He has a chance to be a poor man’s Andrei Kirilenko if given minutes.

12. Golden Shower State Warriors

Who doesn’t love watching Nellie ball? Along with Oklahoma City, this could be the most fun team to watch because they are not only going to score, but they are going to throw some nutty line-ups out there. Monta Ellis and Anthony Randolph are each worth the price of admission as they are athletic freaks and add in a little whack-a-doodle Stephen Jackson, one dimensional scorer Corey Maggette, and AC man crush Stephen Curry, and anything can happen.

The only two big guys of note on this team are Andris Biedrins, and um, Ronny Turiaf? Not so good for Warriors’ fans, but if they keep pushing the ball, they will at least make losing fun to watch.

Fantasy Sleeper: Anthony Morrow

Morrow is the best fantasy sleeper out there, though his preseason may have awakened too many people. He shoots a high percentage, he plays good defense, and he’s going to score. AC is going to draft him 5 rounds too early and be happy about it.

13. Memphis Grizzlies

Trading for Zach “two times anal” Randolph and then signing Allen Iverson makes less sense than a Thomas Pynchon novel (if anyone can explain the first 100 pages of Gravity’s Rainbow to me in less than 1 minute, you’ll win a gold star). These moves could only be pulled off by “The Destroyer of Teams” Chris Wallace. It is confounding, perplexing, mystifying, baffling, and bewildering how this assclown still has a job. He is consistently two standard deviations worse than every other general manager and there are some bad fucking GMs.

This team is going to be a nightmare. OJ Mayo, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, and AI all demand the ball because all of them like chucking up shots. To keep them happy, this team is going to need more balls than were at the Houston 500. Oh yeah, in case you’re wondering, OJ Mayo is shooting 35% in the preseason and #1 draft pick Hasheem Thabeet is averaging 3.4 points and 4 rebounds in 17 minutes.

Newsflash: This team could be a complete trainwreck, and it couldn’t happen to a worse GM.

Fantasy Sleeper: Marc Gasol

He’ll get you a double-double a night while shooting a high percentage and not killing anybody (a huge risk for this Memphis team).

14. Sacramento Kings

The NBA should just relegate these guys to the NBDL. It’s not just that they’re bad, it’s that they’re bad and don’t have much upside. Sure Tyreke Evans may be a player but he is a low FG%, high volume shooting point guard who turns it over more frequently than Britney Spears goes thongless. All of those are a bad combination.

Kevin Martin is a first rate scorer but the rest of the starting line-up (along with Tyreke Evans) may be Omri Casspi, Jason Thompson, and Spencer Hawes. That front court is not exactly Bynum, Gasol, and Artest. Heck, it might not even be Moe, Larry, and Curly. They are so bad, they are now giving minutes to Sean May who continues to hurt his knee because he is so fucking fat. Sean may eats like Tyreke Evans turns the ball over, often and disgustingly. I feel bad for Kings fans because there just isn’t a lot to like here, but at least they won’t have to go to the games and thus risk being shot by Tyreke Evans in a post game drive-by.

Fantasy Sleeper: Spencer Hawes

He can shoot a little, he can rebound, and he can block shots. He tends to foul too much which hurts his minutes but this front court is so thin that Hawes should be able to get plenty of run.

15. Minnesota TerribleWolves™:

And then there was one. This is team is so bad that if they were a disease, they would be leprosy of the gentials. If they were a car, they would be a Pinto with a “hit me” sticker on the rear bumper. If they were a quarterback, they would be a hybrid of Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell after an all you can eat fish fry. And if they were a country, they would be Mexico.

This team is so bad they might actually start Oleksiv Pecherov (“Oleksiv” of course is Ukranian for “Kevin” and “Pecherov” is from the ancient Ukranian for “Love hurt”). Pecherov is so bad he couldn’t break the Wizards rotation in either of his first two years. He’s so bad MDC Dynamo Moscow told him to stay in the US.

The Wolves seem intent on starting Jonny Flynn even though he’s too short and not very good. They signed Ramon Sessions who is good, but apparently going to share time with Flynn. And they still feature the potentially average former Celtic Ryan Gomes at small forward. Honestly, this team may not win 15 games, especially with their best player and example setter being “The Big Lazy,” Al Jefferson.

Jefferson is already complaining about a lower leg injury, the good news of course being that he won’t re-aggravate it on defense since he plays defense as well as China makes non-lead based toys. Four years ago AC predicted Al Jefferson would never be an all-star and he sure as fuck isn’t going to do it this year on a 15 win team. Every day AC thanks Kevin McHale for taking this one dimensional player with an allergy to ankle taping and giving the Celtics Kevin Garnett in return. It really is one of the colossally bad trades in history.

And for all of you Terriblewolves™ fan (singular on purpose), don’t despair, Ricky Rubio is on his way, to New York that is. But hey, it’s not like you have a history of trading away star players for nothing.

Fantasy Sleeper: Kevin Love

He’ll be back in two months to get you a double double on a nightly basis. Take him in the last round or just put him on your watch list and monitor his injury progress.

Wrap-up:

So there it is in this season of Rosy Palm and her five sisters. For the first time in years the NBA has five elite teams (and two wannabes) which should make for a great playoffs, but perhaps a lopsided regular season.

As for the Finals, only injuries will keep the Celtics out in the East and the Spurs are going to lull the Lakers to sleep in the West and LA won’t be able to contain Tony Parker. In the Finals, look for Boston to demolish the Spurs and put an exclamation point on one of the greatest seasons ever.

contact AC at ac(at sign)wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board

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