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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's 2004-2005 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 107 Losses: 81 Ties: 4
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 57%
Record updated Saturdays and Mondays
Contact AC at ac@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
6/9/05 NBA Playoff Picks - Week 9
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC wrapped up the 2003-2004 NBA betting season with a 51% winning percentage against the spread on his basketball picks after 190 games and has improved that to a 57% winning percentage against the spread this season.
The NBA Finals are here at last. After a year that featured the Pistons-Pacers brawl, the emergence of Dwyane Wyane Wade, the comeback of the dunk contest, and most importantly the demise once again of the worst coach in the NBA Jim O’Brien, we are finally at the Championship. The Pistons and the Spurs are set to meet Thursday night for what should be an entertaining, albeit short series. The Spurs are just on another level from everyone else and the Pistons are playing like last year’s Lakers, squeaking by when they need to but about to run out of gas. In order to understand why the Spurs are going to sweep the Pistons (and yes I said sweep), I will break down the match-ups for you position by position.
Point Guard: Chauncey “Big-Ups” Billups vs Tony Parker
I am going to say this once, and only once, Tony Parker is the most underrated player in the NBA. He is unbelievably quick, does not fold under pressure, has stepped up every time the Spurs needed him to, and is banging that Eva Longoria chick (as an aside, I am not a huge fan of Ms. Longoria, but the kids seem to like her so I will give Tony some props). Parker is just 23 years old, his assist totals and field goal percentage have been rising every year, and he is French for F sake. The dude grew up with Jerry Lewis, soccer, and Pepe Le Pew, yet he is overcoming these handicaps and on his way to becoming one of the best point guards in the NBA. So give young Tony some props, buy him some Brie, and tell him about the deuce you rocked while visiting the Louvre. As an aside, the decision to enter the draft early by Tony’s younger brother TJ, a starting point guard by default at my alma mater Northwestern, is one of the most bizarre and moronic decisions I have seen made since the Knicks hired Isiah Thomas.
As for Billups, he is a great competitor and one of the strongest reminders of the Rick Pitino fiasco in Boston. Pitino traded Billups after three months for what I believe was an old pair of socks, a new saddle for one of his horses, and Pitino’s last shred of dignity. Billups is just a solid all-around pressure player. He gets you points, he plays D, and he finds the open man. He reminds me a bit of Dennis Johnson because of his tough defense and unselfish play.
That said, Billups vs Parker is almost a push but when Tony is running, the Spurs are unstoppable.
Advantage: Parker
Shooting Guard: Richard Hamilton vs Manu Ginobili
Another great match-up, seriously these are two of the best shooting guards in the game. Hamilton is just unbelievable at coming off picks and nailing the jumper, while Manu can do it all. Ginobili has made the biggest leap out of anybody in these playoffs, stepping up from decent Euro-type guy to crunch time hero. Seriously, until writing this I didn’t even know there were three letter “I”s in Ginobilis’ name. Manu does everything for the Spurs from driving to the hole, to flopping on defense, to banging all of the ugly chicks with STDs to keep them away from Duncan (ok, I think I made that last one up, but that is not the point). As good as Rip Hamilton is, and as important as he is to the Pistons, he is no Ginobili.
Advantage: Manu
Center: Ben Wallace vs. Nazr Mohammed
Big Ben likes to board, yet was pretty ineffective against the Heat, while Mohammed is a lot better and tougher than people think. This is what I had to say when Isiah gave Mohammed away :
"Nazr Mohammed and Jamison Brewer from New York to San Antonio for Malik Rose, Malik Rose’s $32MM contract, two first round draft picks, and cash:
Great trade for the Spurs. I am a huge Nazr Mohammed fan and he will be an excellent back-up to Duncan and bring some toughness to the Spurs. Add in the fact that they dumped Malik Rose’s ridiculous contract for a measly 2 late first round picks and you have a steal. I really wish I could make a trade with Isiah. That would make a great reality tv show, Who Can’t Beat Isiah in a Trade? The show will feature the mentally challenged, Alzheimer sufferers, and Norwegians, all trading NBA players with Isiah to see who can steal the most from him. What a moron."
I should have said: In addition, Isiah just gave the Spurs the NBA championship like Danny Ainge did last year for the Pistons by aiding the Raweed trade.
While Nazr is a huge upgrade for the Spurs, he is no Ben Wallace. Wallace controls the boards for the Pistons and look for Larry Brown to stick him on Duncan to try to slow Duncan down. Of course, Larry Brown benched Amare, LeDong, and Melo in the Olympics so you never know.
Advantage: Ben Wallace
Power Forward: RaWeed Wallace vs Tim Duncan
RaWeed is actually an unbelievable player. For all of his lunacy, he plays hard and he is the difference maker on the Pistons team. I don’t know what I am more surprised about, Kobe Bryant not raping a hotel worker this year or RaWeed not blowing up and causing the Pistons team to implode. I was willing to wager on Wallace going nutty this year (ala Artest) and wearing out his welcome but he has done just the opposite and become the team leader.
Problem is, Tim Duncan is the best big man in the league. Plain and simple. He plays hurt, he plays sick, he plays well. The only thing I am frustrated about with Duncan is that he has never developed a nickname. My three choices would be “The Big Bore,” Tim “Be” Dunkin (ok that one is terrible), and “The Boy From St. Croix.”
Advantage: Duncan
Small Forward: Tayshaun Prince vs. Bruce Bowen
This is like Obi Wan and young Skywalker, Nina Hartley and Taylor Rain, and Nipsey Russell and Dave Chapelle. The old seasoned pro and the young talent with the same skill that is the best in their field. Bowen and Prince are simply the best swingman defenders in the league, and I would argue that is the toughest position to defend given the lack of traveling calls and hand checks. Prince’s block last year of Reggie Miller on a break away still remains the best defensive play I have ever seen.
While they play different styles of defense (Bowen likes to push and elbow while Prince likes to block shots and steal the ball), they are both equally effective. However, when Tayshaun remembers that there is an offensive end of the court, he can be an effective scorer. Bowen drains the 3 every now and then but he is not much of a threat on the offensive end, which gives Tayshaun the advantage. Watching Tayshaun try to keep up with Rip Hamilton should be fun for all NBA fans, not as fun nailing Rip’s groupies, but fun nonetheless.
Advantage: Tayshaun Prince
Reserves: Antonio McDyess, Lindsay Hunter, Carlos Arroyo, some string cheese, and Elden Campbell vs. Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Beno Udrih, Rasho Nestrovic, and Big Dog Glenn Robinson
This is the Pistons biggest weakness and where Dumars selecting Darko in the draft really hurt this team. As you can see, Darko didn’t even make my list of reserve players and string cheese did (by the way, the stuff is a fantastic snack treat, just cheesy goodness all around, but I digress). Antonio McDyess is just not that good and nobody else on the Pistons bench is reliable. I still can’t believe Lindsay Hunter is still in the league.
On the other hand, the Spurs have Big Shot Rob Horry, a marginally effective Brent Barry, and my boy Beno. Add in the possibility of a Big Dog sighting and the Spurs bench is solidly average compared to the Pistons’ solidly crappy.
Advantage: Spurs
Coaches: Larry Brown vs. Greg Popovich
It would be easy to criticize Brown for not playing the young talented players in the Olympics, in fact I already did. However, it should be noted that Popovich was on Brown’s Olymic staff so he is not blameless either. These are two of the best coaches in the league, with Brown getting all the accolades and Popovich quietly winning titles. Given the fact that Brown is a bit distracted with other job offers and a bladder problem (sounds dreamy) and Popovich has led his team to victory over three teams that play fairly different styles (Denver, Seattle, and Phoenix), I have to give the nod to Popovich. His team has adapted well and will surely adapt to the Pistons grind it out, low turnover, try to let the other team beat itself style.
Advantage: Popovich
So there you have the Spurs have the 5-2 advantage in match-ups and are playing at an incredible level right now. This should be an entertaining series but my gut tells me the Spurs are likely to dominate. You never can tell until after the first game, as noted by the Pistons-Lakers from last year, but barring surprises, I think the Spurs will sweep.
Free NBA Pick for Thursday - Championship Game 4:
Game 3 was brutal for you’re your boy AC. I lost the under and the line as the Spurs completely folded with about 3 minutes to go in the third quarter. Manu’s injury barely slowed them in the first half but then it was like an avalanche. Besides the fact that the officiating was horrible, as unacceptable as giving Stevie Wonder floor seats (I mean come on, I love Stevie, but put him in the fucking bathroom and he wouldn’t know the difference), the Spurs simply decided to play like it was a rookie league game in the second half. They rushed their shots, forced bad passes, and let Beno get trapped with the ball. I was all set to write about the all-underrated Tony Parker and how he made some great decisions in the first half by pulling out from 1 on 2 and 1 on 3 fastbreaks, but then the last 15 minutes of the game happened. Ugh, I guess you had to figure Ben Wallace would have at least one game where he tried.
San Antonio +3.5 at Detroit:
I’ll admit it, the Pistons looked terrific in the second half of game 3. So the question is, is it likely they play like that again or will they play like they did in the first two and a half games? Ginobili will be back, Duncan will actually be pissed, and one of these days Brent Barry is bound to have an impact outside of garbage time (did I just write that?).
San Antonio at Detroit Under 172:
Why? Because I said so.
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