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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's 2005-2006 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 25 Losses: 21 Ties: 1
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 54%
Record updated Saturdays and Mondays
Contact AC at ac@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC wrapped up the 2003-2004 NBA betting season with a 51% winning percentage against the spread on his basketball picks after 190 games and has improved that to a 57% winning percentage against the spread completing the 2004-2005 season.
NBA WEEK 6 COLUMN & FREE PICKS:
The NBA is very strange, not as strange as Texas, or Alabama, or even string theory, but still strange nonetheless. And why is this? Simply because there is seemingly so little difference in talent among 90% of the league that there are only ~35 players that actually make a difference. As long as you have at least one of these players you will be competitive on any given night and if you have two, you might as well think championship.
Take the Suns for instance. They brought back run and gun last year with a talented starting 5 of Stoudamire, Nash, Marion, Joe “Jon Koncak” Johnson, and Quentin Richardson. Then they went and got rid of Johnson and Richardson and replaced them with a five headed monster of James Jones, Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, Eddie House, and Leandro Barbosa. Add in a marginal Kurt Thomas replacing all-world Stoudamire and it sounded like a recipe for disaster, right? Wrong. The Suns are 12-5 and running their way back to the top of the standings. This is because in Nash and Marion they still have 2 of those top 35 guys and that is all you need. Replacing a slightly above average shooting guard or a small forward is like finding a girl with a boob job in LA or member of the Real World with an IQ below 25. In other words, it is easy. There is just not that much difference between a mid-level guy like Atlanta’s newest mistake Joe Johnson and a former 10-day contract guy like Eddie House (as an aside, Eddie House may be one of the most exciting players in the league because I don’t think he has ever seen a shot he didn’t think he could hit. I actually think he comes out firing from the time he wakes up in the morning). That is because these guys are all so skilled that the degree of difference is too small to matter in most cases. So the Suns can plug holes with any LeTom, Dickau, or DeHarry, because of Nash and Marion, while teams like the Hawks overpay for replaceable positions. Call it the curse of Belkin.
Further proving this is the existence of Shavlik Randolph whose previous claim to fame is being the worst starting center in Duke history, making Mark Iavaronni look like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Mr. Randolph came off the bench the other night in Philadelphia and proceeded to put up 10 points and 7 boards in 14 minutes. What is amazing about this is that it was not only not clear that Randolph was in the NBA, but based on his college performance, it wasn’t clear he actually understood all of the rules of basketball, such as you have to put the ball in the hoop to win, scoring more points than the other team is important, and getting a ton of ass is required by any college hoops player. I guess the point of all of this is that you can pretty much throw anyone out there for 10-15 minutes and they will do reasonably well on any given night, unless your name starts with Brian and ends with Scalabrine.
All of this gives us three important things to remember should we ever become GMs (and take note of this Danny Ainge, because this is where you are failing): 1. You need two superstars to win. The position doesn’t matter as much as the talent level. 2. Don’t waste your time with average wing players, focus on finding the superstars. There are more average wing players than bad jokes in an Everybody Loves Raymond episode, so don’t stress about it. 3. Never get into a land war in Asia.
So without further ado, on to this weeks picks:
NBA FRIDAY FREE PICKS:
Last Saturday night was tough. A 1-3 record losing 3 games by a combined 4.5 points. That hurt me deeply, not as deeply as when Celtics re-signed Mark Blount last year, but deeply nonetheless. As a result, you should all win some cash tonight so you can be sure to get your lady friend an extra special NBA themed thong for the holiday season. As an aside, why does no one offer these yet? You don’t think groupies would love wearing a purple and gold Lakers thong? I think I need to make this happen. Ladies, drop me a line and we can have you try them on for us.
New Jersey at Cleveland -7.5:
Cleveland is back at home after a crappy 1-2 road trip. The Cavs like their home court and the Nets hate winning, which is usually a good combination. Let me be the first to start the Lawrence Frank watch as I don’t think he is making it through the season. Perhaps he can get an assistant job at Suffolk University, home of the next great division 3 powerhouse Fighting Rams. Just hope LeDong comes to play and Larry Hughes remembers getting the ball in the hoop is much more effective than not.
Dallas at Memphis Over 179:
I know, Memphis is holding teams to like 70 points a game thanks to the 1997 slow down style of Mike Fratello which is as entertaining and exhilarating as a Jane Austen novel. I also know Jason Terry is hurt so Dallas is missing their energy guy. Still, you have to think Dirk and Pau are going to go at each other and combine for 55 points. That means they just need the others to hit 124. This is one of those lines that doesn’t make sense to me, so clearly I am missing something. Be wary, but bet it if you think Devon Harris can break 15.
Seattle +1.5 at Utah:
I am not happy with this pick as it may signal my jumping off of the Utah bandwagon and this hurts me. I want the Jazz to be good and not just because I drafted Kirilenko in the first round of my fantasy draft. Actually, that may be the only reason I want them to be good so scratch that last thought. The Jazz played Milt Palacio 35 minutes last game and that can never be a good sign, unless you are the opposition or you are playing against the Angolan national team. Take the Sonics and hope Rashard Lewis shows up to work sans the drinky drinky.
Detroit -4.5 at Golden Shower State:
Can it be right that the Pistons haven’t played since last Saturday? Weird. This means they will be rested but rusty. If you can bet a first half line, take the Warriors, but for the full game, look for the Pistons to pull away in the fourth once they get rolling. In Tayshaun I trust.
NBA SATURDAY FREE PICKS:
Another ugly night last night even though I was right about the Pistons losing the first half and then winning at the end. The only problem is that they won by 3 and not 5, so I’d like to thank them for that. Also, in the Mavs-Grizz game I said to take the over because Pau and Dirk were going to combine for 55. Well they combined for 48 thanks to Pau missing shots. If they had hit the 55 mark, I would have won the over. Finally, I have to say I didn’t gamble on the surest bet in sports gambling today. The Spurs over the Celtics. It is as guaranteed as death, taxes, and Danny Ainge making a bad free agent signing, so for not picking that game I am sorry.
San Antonio -10 at Atlanta:
Atlanta is rested and the Spurs are on the road after dismantling the lowly Celtics last night. Due to that fact, the Hawks should keep this game within 30 points. Just hope Parker decides to run and watch the Spurs shut Joe Johnson down.
LA Lakers at Minnesota -6.5:
The Lake show is putting it together but Szczerbiak has been on fire, plus who is going to stop Garnett, Chris Mihm? This game will be close until the Wolves step on the throttle in the third quarter.
Sacramento at Seattle Under 209:
209 is a lot of points. I know they combined for 210 the first time they played but 209 is still a lot. Just hope someone plays defense if just for a 3 minute stretch.
Boston at Dallas Over 194.5:
I really want to take the Mavs -9 but i think that is one point too many. Plus the Celtics may prove to have some fight left in them after another loss in San Antonio and the Mavs really miss Jason Terry. Just hope the Celtics play their usual putrid defense and Ricky Davis shoots better than 30%.
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