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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's 2005-2006 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 93 Losses: 90 Ties: 3
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 51%
Playoff Record: 17-13 Winning Percentage: 57%
Record updated Saturdays and Mondays
Contact AC at ac@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC wrapped up the 2003-2004 NBA betting season with a 51% winning percentage against the spread on his basketball picks after 190 games and improved that to a 57% winning percentage against the spread completing the 2004-2005 season.
NBA FINALS COLUMN & FREE PICKS:
The NBA Finals are here and I am as giddy as Shawn Kemp in a crackhouse. As you all know, your boy AC is the only NBA analyst who predicted a Heat-Mavs final so if you bet with me on that one, you should all have enough lap dances coming your way that you may need to buy new laps. I don’t mean to toot my own horn (but it feels oh so good), but why does ESPN pay Jim O’Braindead to give NBA analysis when I am giving you not only free money, but a laugh every once in awhile and plenty of my girl Ava (and Ava, if you are reading this, and I know you are, I want you to know I feel the same connection to you as you do to me). So with the Finals starting, it is time to breakdown the match-ups as always, position by position, in order to help you understand who I think is going to win and how you can all win some money on it (and feel free to give your boy AC kickbacks, I mean, I got to feed my kids. Ok, I don’t have any kids, but if I did, I am sure they would be hungry).
PG: Jason Williams vs Devin Harris
It’s amazing how fast Jason Williams has gone from “White Chocolate” to “White Stiff.” I mean, I know you can take the boy out of West Virginia but I didn’t know you could take the West Virginia out of the boy (and if you replace “West Virginia” with “Marijuana” that sentence may make more sense). Williams is no longer a flashy penetrating guard who can occasionally hit the jumper, instead he is a bring it up the court guard who can occasionally hit the jumper. His counterpart, Devin Harris, is an up and comer who has more speed than Jason Williams has tattoos (speaking of tattoos, if I were to get one, I think it would just be the words “dee plane boss dee plane” and if someone asked me what that was, I would say “my tattoo,” but I digress).
Anyway, Harris is playing unbelievably well but it is always difficult to trust a rookie in the Finals. However, the fact that Jason Williams is now essentially splitting time with Gary Payton, who is so old that he hasn’t been the same since that arrow injury he received in the Battle of Bull Run, can not be good for the Heat. I have to give the nod to Harris here despite his jumper being as reliable as a Kevin Smith film, I mean is anything so hit or miss?
Advantage: Harris
SG: Dwyane Wyane Wade vs. Jason Terry
First of all, I want to go on record as saying I am a huge Jason Terry fan. Point guard, shooting guard, whatever you want to call him he can flat out play. He is a bit old school in that he can shoot, pass, penetrate, and even rebound. If he plays well, the Mavs are almost impossible to beat and it is rare that he doesn’t play well. Problem is, he is going up against Wade who is one of the premier players in the league. Wade is a younger, more athletic, and simply better version of Terry. If I were the Mavs, I would stick Terry and Harris on Wade and leave Williams wide open. If Williams misses, great, and if he hits, even better, because he’ll keep on shooting. The Mavs need to contain Wade to be able to win this series, plain and simple.
Advantage: Wade
C: Shaquille O’Neal vs the two headed monster of Eric Dampier and DeSagana Diop
Diop has been getting a lot of props for basically not completely sucking in the playoffs so far. Problem is, he has been doing it against a Suns team with no center and a Spurs team that was rolling out Nazr Mohammed. In case you didn’t know, Shaq is a wee bit better than those guys. The Mavs are going to have to rely on Dampier to keep his position down low and push Shaq out if he can. Otherwise, they are in for some ugly games. Shaq wants to win and I don’t see Diop or Dampier being able to contain him. Unless Diop uses all 6 of his fouls and the Mavs let Pavel Podkolzine use all 6 of his as well, they could be in trouble (though containing Wade is still the priority).
Advantage: Shaq
PF: Udonis Haslem vs Dirk Nowitzki
I find it quite a coincidence that Udonis Haslem is an anagram for “Demolish Anus” because that is exactly what Dirk is going to do to him. Not only can’t Udonis cover Dirk on the outside, but he can’t cover him down low either. Dirk has just dominated the last two playoff series in the same way Sean May dominates a donut. Watching Haslem try to guard Dirk is going to be like watching Darius Miles in a spelling bee with polysyllabic words, in other words, not pretty.
Advantage: Dirk
SF: Antoine Walker vs. Josh Howard
Howard is young, agile, quick, and unselfish, basically everything Antoine is not. As a Celtic fan, I had to suffer through the Antoine years and all of his misguided three pointers, lazy passes, and indifference to defense culminating in his getting used in the playoffs by Kenyon Martin worse than Houston in her 500 man gangbang. The thing is, I kind of grew to eventually like Antoine. Once he settled down and realized Pierce was the man, Antoine became a team leader and really wanted to win. The problem was, he was still Antoine (kind of like Manny being Manny) and I am so much happier now that he is a part of a team other than the Celtics. Howard is the glue of this Mavericks team while Walker is the upside for Miami. When in doubt, go with the sure thing.
Advantage: Howard
Bench: Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning, James Posey, and Jim Sunvold vs. Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels, Keith Van Horn, Adrian Griffin, and James Donaldson’s old knee-brace:
Stackhouse has been the most valuable bench player out of anyone and yet Mourning can come in and change the game in brief spurts. Posey vs. Daniels and Griffin is a wash while Van Horn can occasionally light it up (and by occasionally, I mean that one time in 1998 when he broke 25). The Mavs bench is deep and athletic (insert your own porn reference here) and the Heat bench features Gary Payton. As Scoop Jackson would proclaim, “’Nuff said.”
Advantage: Mavs
Coaches: Pat Riley vs. Avery Johnson
Pat Riley not only has won 4 NBA finals as a coach, but he single handedly ruined the game for a ten year period with his defensive no-fun Knicks and Heat teams. That is pretty influential. Avery Johnson just seems to get it. He makes adjustments and gets effort from his players. It is the legend vs. the up and comer like Eddie Murphy vs Dave Chapelle or Janine Lindemulder vs. Taylor Rain. Do you go with experience or do you go with the most talented of the day? I would call this a push, but I think in the Finals you have to give a slight edge to the guy who has been there and won it many times.
Advantage: Riley by a greased back hair
So there you have it, the Mavs have an advantage in 4, and almost 5 of the 7 categories. The Mavs are deeper, more athletic, and younger so should be able to recover easier from game to game. It would appear to be a walk in the park for the Mavs but this is a strange series in that they match-up horribly with the Heat’s best players. They have no answer for Wade or Shaq and that may actually be their downfall. Usually there is at least one marquee match-up, but in this series, the opposing teams’ best players play different positions (Dirk at PF, and Shaq and Wade) which means that anything can happen at any time. I am still staying with the Mavs since I picked them to win it all before the playoffs started, but it wouldn’t shock me if Wade was able to dominate with Shaq controlling the paint. Should be a good series, but put me down for the Mavs in 7.
So without further ado, on to this weeks picks:
NBA FINALS FREE PICK FOR THURSAY (GAME 1):
Miami at Dallas -5:
I hate this line more than Kobe hates hearing “no.” I think there is a 20% chance the Heat win, a 28% chance it comes down to the last shot, and a 52% chance the Mavs win by 8 or more. Pretty much a wash with this line. When that happens, take the home team and hope they can keep their focus for the whole game, that and for Wade to get herpes.
NBA FINALS FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY (GAME 2):
Miami at Dallas -4.5:
Roses are red
Violets are blue
Dallas giving half a point less
As line in game 2?
In other words, stick with what got you here. The Mavs didn’t even play that well and still won by 10. I expect them to win game 2 by 6, mainly because Antoine will only have 5 turnovers for the Heat instead of 6.
NBA FINALS FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY (GAME 3):
AC has now won you 6 straight games on top of calling a Miami-Dallas final. If you have been betting with AC, you are probably getting a blumpkin from Jessica Alba as we speak, so I will keep this short.
Dallas +4 at Miami:
Miami wins a close game or they lose, that simple. Can someone tell me when Shaq turned into Alton Lister? Plus Shaq shoots free throws as well as Billy Joel drives. Just hope the Heat don’t get every call, which the refs may be forced to do to prolong this series.
NBA FINALS FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY (GAME 4):
7 consecutive wins for your boy AC. I am hotter than a Taylor Rain-Ava-Janine Lindemulder 3-some.
Dallas +2 at Miami:
My gut tells me Miami is going to win by ten but my brain tells me Dallas is the superior team. I know my gut usually proves to be right but I think it may be last night’s tacos talking instead of any actual insight this time. Just hope Dirk shows up pissed off about Dallas blowing Game 3 and hope Shaq goes back to shooting free throws as if hitting them will give him herpes.
NBA FINALS FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY (GAME 5):
This has been a terrible last two games for the Mavericks. First they completely blow game 3 by not focusing on Dwyane Wyane Wade (which AC said is the key to the series, and it is), then they put out no effort in game 4, and finally Stackhouse gets suspended for game 5. Not good news for team Cuban, really not good news. On the bright side, Miami still has Antoine Walker and Gary Payton playing major minutes so the Mavs are never really out of it.
Before I get to the pick, I want to thank the NBA for starting every game at 9:15 pm East Coast time. Just fantastic. Really, I love having to stay up until midnight to watch the games when I have to get up at 6:30 am for work the next day. I don’t understand why the games don’t start at 8pm but then again I don’t understand how Chris Wallace is still employed by the Celtics, so what do I know.
Dallas at Miami Under 187.5:
This is a little bit of a cop out but with Dallas having to play without Stackhouse, it is hard to pick this game. My gut, which was right about game 4 (as always) thinks the Heat will cover -2, but my head still sees the Mavs as a clearly better team. However, without Stackhouse, I just don’t know how the Mavs will react. Dirk should score 50 but then again he’s German so he’s just as likely to smoke a pack of cigarettes at half time before downing some schnitzel, and I don’t actually know what that means. Either way, all the Mavs have to do is stick Howard and Terry on Dwyane Wyane Wade and let Williams and Payton beat them. It really is that simple. Anyway, take the under and hope the Mavs can continue to play tough D on Shaq.
NBA FINALS FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY (GAME 6):
Miami +6 at Dallas:
This game will be close, but Dallas will win. Game 7 will be a blow out in favor of Dallas (or vice versa, either way Dallas is taking the next two). Dallas has basically won 4 out of the 5 games so they should prevail here. They choked in Game 3 and then the refs gave Miami every call in Game 5 after Stu Jackson had already taken away Jerry Stackhouse. I would expect Dallas to get the calls tonight but Miami to hang tough. I haven't quite figured out why Avery is not quadruple teaming Dwyane Wyane Wade but perhaps he thinks it is 1996 and Antoine Walker is still good. Jason Terry has abused Gary Payton like Macaulay Caulkin at a Neverland Ranch sleepover so the Mavs should really just play the two man game with Terry and Dirk. Dallas is just a superior team but with Dirk doing his Arod impression, Miami has the dominant player in Wade. Take the Heat and hope they can survive the opening onslaught.
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