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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's Wagercom 2006-2007 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 33 Losses: 34 Ties: 1
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 49%
Record updated Saturdays and Mondays
Contact AC at ac@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC has had 3 consecutive winning seasons picking NBA games against the spread for a combined 317-281 record yielding a 53% winning percentage which would have won you money including the VIG. AC does this out of the kindness of his heart and for the naked pictures of your girlfriends you send him as a token of your appreciation. So enjoy the columns and the picks..
AC'S NBA FREE PICKS WEEK 9:
One third of the NBA season is done and there are many questions to be answered. Who is going to come out on top in the West? Will anyone win the Atlantic Division? And will Ron Artest’s rap album outsell Stephon Marbury’s $14 sneakers (the answers are Phoenix, No, and No, if you’re keeping score at home, and why wouldn’t you be?). This week I will answer four of the biggest questions about the remainder of the NBA season to help you get a head start on the next 6 months.
With all of the injuries, which is going to be most damaging to a team’s championship run?
This season has featured more injuries than a Quentin Tarrantino movie. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, Chris Paul, Tracy McGrady, Peja Stojakovic, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, and Yao Ming. Plus we still have a healthy Grant Hill waiting to have his foot give way any day. Out of all of these there are two that really matter for the playoffs though and those are Yao Ming and Marcus Camby.
With Yao, the Rockets have a chance to win it all. He has gone from being a tall guy who has some moves to a tall guy who can dominate games in only 3 years. Before his injury this year, Yao was averaging 26 points 10 rebounds and 2 block per game, but more importantly, he was forcing teams to double and triple team him which opened up space for McGrady, Rafer Alston, and even Luther Head. Plus, his passing from the high post has allowed for easy lay-ups on cuts to the basket and even the occasional give and go. Heck, McGrady was averaging over 6 assists per game with Yao in the line-up. Without Yao, Houston is not much different than the Celtics when Paul Pierce is healthy. McGrady will go back to shooting 33% by forcing up too many shots and turning the ball over 6 times a game while opposing teams will be able to focus more on the boards and thus shut out much of Shane Battier’s value. Yao is a game changer and if he gets healthy, he can lead Houston to the Finals.
The other major injury is to Marcus Camby, especially now that AI is in Denver. The Nuggets now match up favorably to the Suns with Camby a mixture of Shawn Marion’s athleticism and Amare Stoudamire’s height. With the Nuggets determined to shoot the ball 13 seconds into every possession, controlling the defensive boards and blocking shots for quick outlet passes is key to their game. The Nuggets will win by hitting more lay-ups than other teams and the lay-ups start by pulling down rebounds. This is why Bill Russell was the greatest center ever. He owned the ball on the defensive end and while Camby is not Bill Russell (and I may be struck by lightening for even mentioning him in the same sentence), he has the athletic ability to be that kind of difference maker on the defensive end. If he is hurt, the Nuggets will struggle a bit, while with him, they will make a great opponent for Dallas and Phoenix.
Are the Jazz for real?
For short, no. The Jazz are like the book Dead Souls by Gogol which started out brilliantly and then fell apart at the end (mainly because Gogol didn’t include an end, but that is not the point). The Jazz are still very injury prone, play without a real center, and have already started to fade. I don’t think they will fall out of the playoffs, but I would not be surprised to see them as a 6 or 7 seed. What happens with a team like the Jazz, who is a bit undermanned yet a veteran team who plays hard and is well coached, is that they can take teams by surprise at the beginning of the year. The more athletic teams or teams going through transition sometime need more time to gel. The Jazz had almost no turnover and thus were able to gel at the beginning of the season and outplay opponents. With that delta shrinking, and with injuries to Boozer and Kirilenko bound to happen any day, the Jazz’s window is slowly closing. They are 9-8 in their last 17 games which sounds about right to me. This isn’t a bad team, they’re just not at the level of Phoenix and Dallas.
Which coach is next to get fired?
With Fratello gone, there is one down and about 20 left to go. Bad coaching in the NBA is more of an epidemic than hot young Hollywood chicks not wearing underwear, though not nearly as delicious. In AC’s previous writing, Mike Fratello was the 4th most likely coach to get fired http://www.wagercom.com/nba_07_02.html so the prediction was marginally accurate. Doc Rivers was the most likely but with Pierce injured he has bought himself some time. Sam Mitchell was the second most likely but with Chris Bosh injured and the Raptors not folding, he has bought himself some time. And Isiah Thomas was the third most likely but with incriminating photos of James Dolan anally violating small animals (it has to be something like that right?), he has bought himself even more time. I guess that leaves Dwyane Casey of the Timberwolves and/or Terry Stotts of the Bucks as the next coaches to go. They won’t have it as good as JC Penney CFO Catherine West who got ~$10MM when fired after only 6 months on the job, but they will still get paid. The real question is who is out there to take over and if the answer is ever Jim O’Brien, your team is in more trouble. Doug Moe anyone?
Who is going to win the Greg Oden sweepstakes?
This is going to be a close race this year. There are legitimately five teams who could finish with the worst record with those five being Memphis, Charlotte, Philadelphia, New Orleans/OKC and Boston. Now if you assume Paul Pierce comes back relatively quickly, the Celtics should be able to finish above last place so you can take them out of the equation. New Orleans is completely dependent on Chris Paul and without him they should drop quickly. However, he will be back at some point in time so they will likely play themselves out of the Oden sweepstakes as well. So it comes down to Memphis, Charlotte, and the Sixers. Charlotte actually has a bit of talent with Okafor and Felton but with Morrison chucking up shots like his diabetes depended on it, they are just awful. I am not a betting man (uhhh, scratch that) but I am willing to gamble the Bobcats would have a better record if they kept Morrison on the bench.
The Grizzlies not only have a new coach but recently got Pau Gasol back. Gasol should be able to work into playing shape over the next few weeks and help Memphis to at least a .400 winning percentage. The Sixers simply blow. If they were in the West they would be assured of the worst record but getting to play more games against the Knicks and Celtics works out in their favor. That said, they are still just awful. Andre Igoudala is a nice player but he should never be the first option in any offense while Samuel Dalembert makes more stupid plays in one game than Rosie O’Donnell eats dingdongs in one taping of the View. The Sixers legitimately have a chance at winning fewer than 15 games this year and that should be bad enough to get the most ping pong balls in June.
Friday Night Free NBA Picks:
It has been a tough year for AC in picking NBA games. I have seemingly spent the whole year treading water, fighting off fastballs, and trying to stay in the game just like an aging Sylvester Stallone, Dikembe Mutombo, or Janine Lindemulder if you will. Every great gambler goes through tough times and if a record 1 game under .500 is a tough time, then you should all stick with me. Things will get better because I need to get paid. Tonight things turn around faster than a stripper does on your lap after you give her a $50.
Denver -5 at New Orleans:
Chris Paul is questionable and the Nuggets are still without Melo and possibly Nene. That said, Iverson loves to score and Earl Boykins is averaging 25 points per game since the AI trade, no joke. Boykins has to be the most talented player in the NBA, and I am not making that up. He is 5 foot 6 at best and scores half of his points by going to the hole (insert your own porn reference here). The Nuggets just have too much firepower for a banged up Whorenets team. The only thing NO has going for them is that Denver is playing the second of back to back games and may actually get stranded in Denver and not show up. Take the Nuggets and root for Earl Boykins.
New York at Phoenix -12:
Is 12 points a lot to give? Yes. Is Phoenix that good? Yes. Have the Knicks been playing hard? Yes. Have the Knicks been getting lucky? Yes. Is Isiah Thomas still an idiot? Yes. Is Stephon Marbury still a crappy point guard? Yes. Is Eddy Curry still a human turnover? Yes. Is there any reason to think the suns won't win by 30? No.
Atlanta +8 at Houston:
Sometimes you just have to go with your gut. I really have no better explanation.
Chicago -2 at Toronto:
It was either this or Orlando +6.5 at Washington and I am pretty sure that no matter how well they are playing, Toronto still blows. The Bulls are due for a loss and going up to Toronto is never an easy proposition for NBA teams, which has nothing to do with the Raptors and everything to do with the Brass Rail, one of North America's finest strip clubs (imagine hot women and money that is worth about $.50 on the dollar so lap dances are essentially half price, god bless Canada). Anyway, take the Bulls and hope they play any semblance of defense. If you're feeling good, tease this game with the Magic, seriously, the Wiz are due for a letdown game and they have no one to stop Hoard on the boards and thus will struggle with the fast break since outlet passes will be few and far between.
Saturday Night Free NBA Picks:
Another 2-2 night last night, painfully average. Tonight we start to roll.
Miami at Orlando Over 176.5:
Every game sucks tonight, really, every game. If two marginally ok NBA teams can’t break 176.5 then I don’t want to be a part of the NBA anymore. What? I’m not a part of the NBA? Damn.
Charlotte +10.5 at Indiana:
Wallace, Felton, and Okafor should be able to keep the game close. You all know I think Indiana is overrated so hopefully the Bobcats can prove me right. Just hope Morrison shoots fewer than 10 times.
Portland at Utah -11:
Ugh, ugh, ugh. Just an awful game to pick.
Toronto at Memphis -5:
This will be the first and only time we are going to take Memphis giving points. Toronto is on the road for the second of back to back nights which can’t be good. Take Memphis and hope Gasol gets some support.
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