AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC has had 3 consecutive winning seasons picking NBA games against the spread for a combined 317-281 record yielding a 53% winning percentage which would have won you money including the VIG. AC does this out of the kindness of his heart and for the naked pictures of your girlfriends you send him as a token of your appreciation. So enjoy the columns and the picks..
AC'S NBA BASKETBALL FREE PICKS PLAYOFFS WEEK 4:
The NBA playoffs have been an anomaly this year and less predictable than Oprah Winfrey’s weight or the ending to a Kafka novel (especially since many of the novels don’t really end, but maybe that is the point, either way this is besides the point, or is it? I don’t really know). Nonetheless, the playoffs have been even more exciting than usual. We’ve had upsets (the Warriors), feel good stories (Derek Fisher’s game 2 vs. Golden State), whining (Amare calling out Bruce Bowen for kicking him), and even the usual out of playoffs bad move by Danny Ainge of the Celtics in extending the contract of Doc Rivers (the icing on Danny’s 4 year turd cake, and now that I think about it, what kind of icing would you put on a turd cake? I might go with something thick like a cream cheese based icing in case it was hot outside and the cake got mushy, but I really have no idea. If you do, let me know.).
“It’s easy to find things that every coach does wrong,” Ainge added later. “X’s and O’s are somewhat overrated in my mind. Critiques of substitution patterns and timeouts are overrated because, in my opinion, just about every NBA coach is on a fairly equal field in those regards. Those are the least of my concerns.”
“I think he’s shown he can coach,” Ainge said. “That’s the difference between what I think and what most people think. He has shown a firm hand in managing our players.”
“Putting the ball in the basket more than other teams is just not that important,” Ainge opined. “The final score of the game is simply irrelevant in evaluating the team’s performance.”
Ok, I made that last quote up but I swear to God, Jebus, Allah, Ben Vereen, whomever you want, that the first two quotes came directly from a real NBA GM. Ugh.
Anyway, not only have the playoff games been unpredictable but we have had several unexpected players step-up and take on significant roles. Below are the three players who have been the biggest positive surprises in the playoffs so far (the biggest negative surprises would be Dirk, Dirk, and Dirk).
Matt Barnes:
Barnes is the proverbial bad player, usually on a bad team, and usually on that bad team’s bench. Nothing about his game sticks out as he is 6 foot 7, not particularly big, and not a great shooter. Until this year Matt had distinguished himself by being cut by 5 different teams since being drafted in 2002 and having more tattoos than Pacman Jones has arrests. The most incredible thing about Barnes is that he went from averaging 0.3 3 point shots per game over his first 3 years to averaging 3.8 per game this year and shooting 36% from behind the arc. He completely changed his game under Don Nelson and was actually very effective throughout the year. However, he has clearly stepped up in the playoffs to the tune of 12 points per game (vs his regular season average of 10 and career average of 6), 6 rebounds a game, and boundless energy. He has shown that the right player in the right situation, given the chance, can excel. While I fully expect him to turn back into a pumpkin next year, Barnes has clearly been the biggest surprise of the playoffs.
Sasha Pavlovic:
First interesting fact, Sasha’s real name is Aleksandar. Second interesting fact, he was a huge bust until the end of this year. Third interesting fact, and I 100% swear I am not making this up, his real name (Aleksandar Pavlovic) is an anagram for “Cavaliers vodka plan,” which is also about all he was good for until the last 20 games.
The 19th pick of the draft in 2003, Pavlovic was so bad that the Jazz left him unprotected in the expansion draft (insert your Shawn Kemp unprotected joke here) and then the Bobcats selected him and dealt him immediately to the Cavs for a first round pick. In his first two seasons with the Cavs, Sasha was nice enough to average under 5 points a game but supply the team with all of their vodka needs.
All he has done in the playoffs is step-up to give the Cavs an outside scoring option and someone who can play perimeter and penetration defense. He’s averaging 16 points per game in round 2 after dropping in 7 a game in round 1. Most of all though, he brings athleticism to the floor and has taken some of the pressure off of the disappointment that is Larry Hughes. He has clearly learned how to play (he says he focused on defense this last off-season) and is providing Cleveland with a much needed option after LeDong.
Luol Deng:
While Deng’s breakout has been mitigated a bit in round two by Tayshaun Prince being draped all over him like a groupie on Erik Estrada in the 1970s, he averaged 26 points per game in the Bulls decimation of the Heat. Not only did he score, but he averaged 9 rebounds and 3 assists. Deng has steadily improved every year and even averaged 18 points per game this season but that pales in comparison to his dismantling of the Heat. They simply couldn’t stop his mid-range jump shots or his offensive board work. Deng is very good and perhaps this playoff experience will vault him in to all-star status, after all he just turned 22.
Friday Night 5/11/07 NBA Playoff Picks:
Utah at Golden Shower State -6.5:
This game is almost too easy to pick, which is why I would be very worried. The Warriors played well enough to win both games in Utah and yet folded down the stretch due to missed free throws, poor penetration defense, and the lack of the Mormon special underwear. At home in Oakland, the Warriors have to be thinking blowout. Once they hit their first few threes, the Oaktown crowd will go nuts as if it were 1989 and MC Hammer was going to be performing at half time with the original Oaktown 357 (the Cooper Manning of female rap groups) Add in the fact that the Jazz are in for a huge let down after emotional wins and the Derek Fisher side story (and we here at wagercom.com wish Derek and his people the best, no joke) and you are primed for a blow out. This is what worries me. Everything points to Golden State taking Utah and treating them like the high priced call girls that they are (work with me here) and when all signs point to one thing, it is usually wrong. Anyway, take the Warriors and hope they get off to a fast start.
Utah at Golden Shower State Under 217:
The two games so far have gone for 228 and 244 total points, which is huge, like Peter North's equipment or Kobe Bryant's ego. Move the games to Oakland with the raucous crowd and the Warriors dictating the style and you should have even more points, right? One would think so, but I expect this to be a blow out by the Warriors on the order of about 115-198 so take the under on 217 and hope the Jazz are really really bad. The under is really predicated on a flat Jazz team.
Saturday NBA Playoff Picks:
Your boy AC had the Warrior’s blowout pegged last night, but missed on the under. Tonight I will make up for that lost vig.
Oh, by the way, if you missed Baron Davis flushing one in Kirilenko’s eye last night, you have to watch the clip below. I haven’t seen someone get abused that much since Dudley went to Mr. Horton’s bike shop.
Cleveland at New Jersey Under 185:
I think the Nets win this game but 5 points is a lot to give. There is a 50% chance the Nets win by 20 and a 50% chance the Nets win by 3, so taking the under is probably the safest bet. Just hope Vince Carter keeps playing like he has the palsy and hope the Cavs slow it down.
Phoenix at San Antonio -4.5:
I hate taking the Spurs for so many different reasons but they are very good. Tony Parker is the most underrated player in the league, hands down. He really is that good.
