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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's Wagercom 2006-2007 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 101 Losses: 99 Ties: 2
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 51%
Record updated Saturdays and Mondays
Contact AC at ac@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC has had 3 consecutive winning seasons picking NBA games against the spread for a combined 317-281 record yielding a 53% winning percentage which would have won you money including the VIG. AC does this out of the kindness of his heart and for the naked pictures of your girlfriends you send him as a token of your appreciation. So enjoy the columns and the picks..
AC'S NBA BASKETBALL FREE PICKS PLAYOFFS WEEK 5:
The first two rounds of the NBA playoffs are now over and AC’s pick to win it all has been eliminated. The Phoenix Suns fell to the San Antonio Spurs in six games in a controversial series. The Suns whined, the Spurs complained, and Shawn Marion disappeared in Game 6 like a ham in Rosie O’Donnell’s house. It would be easy to say the Suns would have won had Stoudamire and Diaw not been suspended for Game 5, but unfortunately, those are the rules (however dumb they may be) and the series will forever be tainted (hehehe, I said taint) for it. The reason the Spurs won though was because Bruce Bowen pestered, fouled, manhandled, and even deflowered Steve Nash last night. Bowen was on Nash like Ruben Patterson on a baby sitter (and Ruben, you need to register as a sex offender when you move, I thought you would have figured that out already). The Suns simply couldn’t overcome this and the Spurs executed almost perfectly. I mean when Jacque Vaughn comes into a game and you rally and your opponent is not Kansas State, you know you are in for a big night. I applaud the Spurs, they are clearly the best team, playing the best basketball.
Below is a breakdown of the Conference Finals and I am sure the NBA is excited at the potential for a Utah-Cleveland championship, I bet David Stern is rolling over in his grave.
Eastern Conference Championship
The Pistons are everybody’s favorite. They pretty much cruised through the first two rounds with only a bit of a hiccup against the Bulls. They are experienced, solid in their rotation, and don’t have any glaring weaknesses (except perhaps on the boards). The problem for them is that Cleveland has the best player (LeDong James) and we all know the best player can take over a series if he is surrounded by competent players (unlike Kobe on the Lakers who is surrounded by more incompetence than the US Oval Office).
Ilgausksas, as slow and plodding as he is, is a match-up problem for Detroit because Webber only has one good leg and hates playing defense, and RaWeed Wallace is just not big enough. If the Cavs can play the two man game with LeDong and Ilgauskas, while sitting Pavlovic and Daniel Gibson on the opposite three point line for the swing around after the kick-out, they should be able to score on Detroit. Plus Gooden and Donyell Marshall should be able to do just enough to bother the Pistons on defense to keep them off balance.
If Gibson and Pavlovic can contain Hamilton and Billups, while Ilgauskas can give a modicum of effort, the Cavs should make this a competitive series and provide an upset (and no I am not making that up).
Prediction: Cavs in 6
Western Conference Championship
The Jazz are unfortunate in that they have to play the Spurs who are putting on a performance that rivals Pacino in the Godfather, Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland, and Nipsey Russell in Wildcats. Duncan is playing the best basketball of his career, Manu is as clutch and whiny as ever, Tony Parker is an offensive force by pushing the ball quickly up the court, and Bruce Bowen is proving that defense wins championships.
On paper, the Jazz have no chance, but paper loses to scissors so they have that going for them. Below are ten reasons the Jazz can win followed by ten reasons the Spurs can win.
10 Reasons Utah Can Win
1. San Antonio's biggest defensive weapon, Bruce Bowen, can be neutralized to some degree since Utah's biggest weakness is the lack of offensive wingmen on whom Bowen feeds. Without Bowen shutting down Utah's best players (and he doesn't match up well with Okur or Boozer), the Spurs are losing a big weapon. And if they put Bowen on the PG like they did against Nash (and Bowen won Game Six against the Suns by pestering Nash to no end), big deal. With Derek Fisher and Deron "Darren" Williams, the Jazz can play essentially two point guards at the same time and thus the Bowen hounding the PG strategy may not work. So do they stick him on Kirilenko? If so, that almost completely takes Bowen out of the defensive flow which is a huge positive for the Jazz.
2. Kirilenko may be able to slow Parker down if Sloan decides to gamble (and I hope he does because Williams' defense can be sluggish at times). Kirilenko did a great job on Baron Davis when he was on him, as Bowen just did on Nash, and as Marion did on Parker in Game 5 (is this a new trend by the way? Slow down the quick PG with the quick 3/4. Did I fall asleep for a few years or did this strategy just begin recently?). Slowing Parker down is the key to stopping the Spurs.
3. Obviously the Spurs may be in for a Game 1 let down (though the Spurs are so professional) and if Utah can steal that one, they could gain confidence. Just like the Warriors couldn't maintain the rally after their emotional series against the Mavericks, the Spurs may be a bit emotionally spent right now. Not saying this is a definite, but it could happen. Game One is Sunday after all.
4. Boozer is really coming into his own. Who do the Spurs put on him? Duncan, Ellson/Oberto, or Bowen? If they go with Duncan, Boozer may be able to wear him out a bit or get him into foul trouble. As I said before, Bowen isn’t as effective in the post against bigger players, he is best when neutralizing quickness (which Utah doesn't have much of), so I don't expect him to bother Boozer. So that leaves Ellson/Oberto and Boozer should destroy both/either of them.
5. Deron "Darren" Williams is getting better by the day. His mid range game has really been a surprise and if he can play under control and limit turnovers, you never know.
6. Derek Fisher loves to hit big shots.
7. Okur will create all kinds of match-up problems for the Spurs. He will crush Bowen in the post, he will take Duncan outside, and he will abuse Oberto/Ellson like a 6 year old boy in a confessional.
8. Jerry Sloan hates gay people which means Ginobili is in trouble.
9. The Jazz may be able to neutralize Ginobili with Derek Fisher who has somehow remembered how to play clampdown defense. While Fisher gives Ginobili six inches (and perhaps I phrased that wrong, but you get my point), he should be able to get in front of him to stop his drives to the hoop. With the height advantage, Ginobili can post Fisher down low but whomever is covering the Oberto/Ellson duo can easily rotate off of them and help with Ginobili in the post. And hey, they can always dust off Ronnie Brewer to pester Manu all over the court.
10. Danny Ainge has nothing to do with the Jazz, even though he is from Utah.
Reasons San Antonio Can Win
1. Tim Duncan
2. Tim Duncan
3. Tim Duncan
4. Tim Duncan
5. Tim Duncan
6. Tim Duncan
7. Tim Duncan
8. Tim Duncan
9. Tim Duncan
10. Utah Sucks.
This should be a better match-up than I am guessing most experts will predict.
The most interesting thing though is that the Jazz and Spurs excel because they adapt to the style of the teams they are playing. I don't think either one really has a pace or style of their own (the Spurs ran with the Suns to some degree and obviously can play half court, while the Jazz ran with Golden State and banged it out with the Rockets). I am curious to see who sets the pace for this series and what that pace is. I am also fearful that we wind up with a mid to late 1990s slugfest, which would be a shame given the offensive progression of the league.
Anyway, the Jazz should give the Spurs a good run, but you can’t pick against a team that has won before and is running on all cylinders. Unfortunately, you have to play it safe and take the Spurs, but I would not be surprised if the Jazz sneak it out. If you have to play it straight up, take the Spurs, but if you’re getting better than 5-1 odds, lay it on Utah.
Prediction: Spurs in 7
Friday Night 5/18/07 NBA Playoff Picks:
Cleveland +3 at New Jersey:
Things I would rather do than watch this series: Perform cunnilingus on Rosie O'Donnell, take a dump in the bathroom stall of a Cleveland bus terminal without wiping down the seat or shutting the stall door, wrestle Mike Tyson, read a Jane Austen novel, watch Everybody Loves Raymond, or wear a pro-Bush t-shirt. This series is not just bad, it is Artie Lange's acting in Beer League bad (and I am a big fan of Artie Lange's but his acting was less believable than Barry Bonds' denials of steroid use). Cleveland is the better team so take the three points and hope LeDong remembers that he is being paid to play and not watch.
Phoenix +3 at San Antonio:
I hate picking against the Spurs at home in a deciding game, it's almost like betting the sun won't come up tomorrow. Everything points to a Spurs victory here, everything. That leaves me with three options: 1. Tell you to take the over 201 and wuss out of making a real pick. 2. Tell you to take the Spurs and root against my pick to win it all. 3. Tell you to take the Suns based on nothing but hope and a young boy's dream. In short, take the Suns despite the slim chances and hope that young boy's dream comes true.
Sunday NBA Playoff Picks:
Utah +6.5 at San Antonio:
Here is your chance to get in before people realize the Jazz are going to create problems for the Spurs. Bet big and bet often.
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