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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's Wagercom 2008-2009 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 38 Losses: 26 Ties: 0
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 59%
Contact AC at ac(at sign)wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC has had 6 consecutive winning seasons picking NBA games against the spread making you money including the VIG. AC does this out of the kindness of his heart and for the naked pictures of your girlfriends you send him as a token of your appreciation. So enjoy the columns and the picks..
AC'S NBA 2008-2009 NBA FREE PICKS WEEK 8:
I am sure you have all been reading Wagercom.com’s brilliant football analyst Jiggy over the past several months. As a colleague of his, I can assure you his depth is only out-paced by his breadth (and also his breath which smells wonderfully of 18 year old cheerleader panties). In his column last week, Jiggy pontificated on randomness in the ways of an existential rational logician. While AC respects the thoughts of the good and able prognosticator, he has his own take on the world.
You see AC also views himself as a rationalist, but his critical thinking is driven by an agnostic Calvinism (I know that is terribly oxymoronic and not just mostly moronic) and an overbearing belief in entropy leading to Dionysian tendencies since there is no causal effect. In other words:
1. Shit happens
2. Once it happens you can’t do anything to make it better again
3. So you might as well enjoy it
Given that, the recent spate of coach firings in the NBA shouldn’t ruffle anyone’s feathers (though if someone had feathers, ruffling them should be the least of their worries). You see in the NBA there is only so much a coach can do given the players he has. The team’s record is pretty much pre-determined based on their talent level so a coach might as well just enjoy the ride and take advantage of his fame while he still has it. Sure some coaches can make marginal improvements and add a sort of cohesiveness, but mainly a coach can only stay out of the way and try to motivate the players ala Doc Rivers. I can name on no fingers and no toes the number of inferiorly talented teams who have won NBA titles. There is simply no room for upsets or underdogs in best of seven series.
So given that, there is not much a GM can do in the middle of a season to show fans he is trying to turn things around. With salary caps and guaranteed contracts, it is very difficult to make roster overhauls mid-year that don’t involve salary dumps or investing for the future. Bad teams have to give up current assets to try to build through younger players but this in no way helps the current coach. The coaches of teams with bad players are just fated to be unsuccessful, there is no way around it. Given that, all a GM can do to continue to earn his salary and not fire himself is to dismiss his coach mid-year, not necessarily through the fault of the actual coach.
Here is an example of what an NBA GM faces during the season.
Suppose you live on a deserted island in a log cabin and suppose your log cabin catches on fire (and this can happen because for once I am not using “log” as a euphemism for anything else). What are your options? You can’t call the fire department because you live on a deserted island (similar to trading for better players, they simply aren’t around given salary cap restrictions), you can’t put it out yourself because you can only carry so much water at a time in buckets (you are handcuffed by guaranteed contracts), so all you can do is try pissing on the fire, knowing it won’t make any bit of difference but giving off the illusion that you tried (firing the coach).
So fear not Sam Mitchell, Mo “Ass” Cheeks, PJ Carlesimo, Reggie Theus, Eddie Jordan, and Randy Wittman, you are not necessarily bad coaches, just merely the urine of a man whose house is burning down. There was nothing you could have done so accept that you were fated to have crappy teams thanks to your talent level and enjoy your paid vacations. Take solace in the fact that you are rich in this time of financial stress and the cost of blumpkins is decreasing by the day.
In other words:
1. Shit happened
2. You couldn’t have done anything to make it better
3. So blumpkin away
Also, before we get to the picks, Jiggy asked that I discuss covariance. Covariance is a measure of how two variables change together. It is related to correlation which is essentially a scaled version of covariance using the standard deviations as scalars. In simple terms, every time Jiggy and I attend the World Famous Mitchell Brothers O’Farrell Theatre, we both witness an extreme amount of pleasure. So our pleasure positively covaries with time at the Brothers. The correlation between our pleasure and the Brothers is positive and I would argue equal to 1 (correlation is limited to being between -1 and +1, 1 being 100% positively correlated, 0 being no correlation, and -1 being 100% negatively correlated). In short, Mitchell Brothers rules, which is the point I believe Jiggy was hoping I would reinforce.
FRIDAY NIGHT FREE NBA PICKS
Toronto -6 at Oklahoma City:
The Raptors have lost 8 of their last 10 games and many think they are in a free fall. Oklahoma City has lost 22 of their last 24 and if the Raptors are in free fall, I guess the Thunder are just in fall, or maybe they already fell. Whatever terminology you prefer to use, giving fewer than 10 points to the Thunder is always a good bet. Jeff Green has been playing better lately and Russell Westbrook is running circles around other point guards (the problem with this is he is literally running in circles, like a chicken with it’s head cut off so his energy is not all too affective) but Kevin Druant still hates defense and the Raptors still have Chris Bosh. Toronto needs this game and although it is on the road, expect a blow out. And fantasy hoops players, look out for Jason Kapono who is bombing 3s now that he has been inserted into the starting line-up.
Cleveland at Denver Under 197.5:
Denver is kicking it old school and playing hella better than expectations. It is amazing what a good point guard can do for a team. This actually might be a decent game even with Cleveland regularly treating opponents like a fat man treats a free plate of cookies, in other words they are just demolishing everything in sight. The one thing I do know is the Cavs can play some defense and thus I fully expect them to hold Denver sub-90 which means the Cavs would need a 20 point victory for the over. So take the under and root for a Greenspanian measured pace without the Greenspanian economic collapse.
Chicago at Boston Under 196:
If you can tease this with Boston -12, then by all means do it but taking Boston and giving the points isn’t a slam dunk victory tonight (bad pun intended). There are three outcomes for this game: 1. The Celtics blow Chicago out. 2. The Celtics starters blow Chicago out only to have their scrubs (and by scrubs I mean bench) let the lead get whittled down to single digits. 3. The Celtics have a let down game which they are due for after their record setting start. Now in 2/3 of those events, the Celtics don’t cover but those three do not have equal probabilities. Unfortunately, they are close to even outcomes so given the uncertainty, it is wiser to bet on the Celtics defense which is an absolute given. I know the Bulls have been filling it up and I know they won’t have Tyrus Thomas tonight to clang 10-15 shots, but the Celtics defense is as relentless as Ahab’s chasing of the whale. Take the under and hope Boston’s bench keeps up the defensive intensity.
Dallas -3.5 at New Jersey:
What goes up, must come down (no matter how much Viagra you take). In this case, the Nets are due for and in the midst of their fall back to below mediocrity, something AC predicted two short weeks ago. While I’d prefer this game to be a pick’em, and while I am itching to take the Wizards against the SIxers in a pick’em, giving 3.5 isn’t all that bad, especially if Josh Howard is really healthy. The downside is that Josh Howard likely spent last night in New York “enjoying” the night life, so his eyes may be redder than usual. Even so, take the Mavs and hope they can keep it close at the beginning.
SATURDAY FREE NBA PICKS
Last night was AC’s first losing night of the season, and for that we are all a little bit sad (and poorer). Tonight we will make up for it as we can’t have our favorite stripper going hungry again.
Golden Shower State at Charlotte Over 208.5: Don’t look now but Charlotte has won 2 games in a row, really though, don’t look, they are horrible. Here’s the thing though, we are always going to take the over with Golden State if the line is under 210 unless they are playing Houston, Boston, or San Antonio. So the fact that Charlotte is barely an NBA team is irrelevant because Golden State is an equally bad team and plays less defense than the Oprah channel shows porn. Take the over and hope everyone is healthy.
LA Clippers +4.5 at Miwaukee: Here is something we don’t advise doing unless you are a pro: taking the Clippers on the road on the second of back to back nights. But, as AC said the other week, this Clipper team is quietly pretty good. As much of a malcontent Zach “Two Times Anal” Randolph is, he is putting up ridiculous numbers and Marcus Camby is rebounding as if each rebound were a dime bag. The Bucks have won 3 of their last 4 but they are still a crap team and Randolph will demolish Bogut. I have no idea who wins, and having Zach spend last night in Milwaukee worries me, but we’ll take the points and root for close one.
Denver at Phoenix -4: Phoenix is still adjusting to a new coach and new players but they have won 4 out of their last 6. Denver played Cleveland last night and are due for a mini losing streak. They have been playing way over their heads, like Jennifer Connelly http://i48.photobucket.com/albums/f241/openyoureyestotheworld09/jennifer-connelly-002u3edit.jpg trying to do Shakespeare. I don’t love this game, but the Suns are hungry and the front court of Shaw and Amare is too much for the Nuggets.
LA Lakers -1.5 at Orlando: AC has yet to pick the Lakers all year so what better time to do it then tonight when they are coming off of a loss and are playing a way overrated Magic team. As intrigued as I am by Houston giving 6 to the TerribleWolves™, I’ll take Kobe and hope this Laker team shows some heart this early in the season.
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