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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's Wagercom 2008-2009 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 110 Losses: 83 Ties: 0
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 57%
Contact AC at ac(at sign)wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC has had 6 consecutive winning seasons picking NBA games against the spread making you money including the VIG. AC does this out of the kindness of his heart and for the naked pictures of your girlfriends you send him as a token of your appreciation. So enjoy the columns and the picks..
AC'S NBA 2008-2009 NBA FREE PICKS PLAYOFFS WEEK 1:
The NBA playoffs are here and while most people think a Cavaliers-Lakers Finals is more likely than an eventual Isiah Thomas recruiting violation at FIU (and I’m going with “improper contact” as the offense), that doesn’t mean the games won’t be exciting. Non-LA/Cleveland plot lines include the Celtics trying to win without KG (and don’t forget they still have the guy who was the best player in the playoffs last year in Paul Pierce), the Blazers trying to be the first trendy team ever to actually win more than one playoff series, the Magic trying to prove to everyone that they are not phonies, and the entire Miami Heat dance team trying not to distract Dwyane Wyane Wade too much from unleashing his powers.
We here at www.Wagercom.com are more excited for the NBA playoffs than a fat guy with a free box of twinkies and a five minute work break. As always, AC will break down the first round series by series.
Eastern Conference:
Detroit vs. Cleveland:
This is not your father’s Piston’s team, heck this isn’t even your Pistons team. Sure they still have Prince, Wallace, and Hamilton but now they also have Stuckey, Bynum, Kwame Brown, and Jason Maxiell. Their team is older and shallower than Alan Thicke or Sarah Palin at an AARP convention. Rodney Stuckey has not lived up to expectations and this team is so disjointed it makes even lepers cringe*.
As for Cleveland, there just isn’t much more you can say other than they have the best player in the world in his absolute prime and have surrounded him with role players who embrace their roles. The Cavs may drop one game out of boredom, but the Pistons are barely a warm-up.
Prediction: Cavs in 5 and RaWeed Wallace gets into a fight with his own teammate Rodney S(t)uckey.
*The leper cringe joke was funny because many lepers don’t have limbs, so they don’t have joints. Therefore a leper cringing at someone having no joints (a pun on disjointed) is absurd and therefore funny. I am explaining this because Jiggy doesn’t think this joke works but I will defend it all day long. Just wanted to clear that up.
Chicago vs. Boston:
KG’s injury is about the worst thing that could have happened to Boston other than Rick Pitino coming back. With a healthy KG, they had a 25% chance of winning it all and without him that chance has shrunk to about 3%. Luckily for them, they still have Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, and Ray Allen which is three more players than they will need to beat the Bulls.
As for Chicago, I have said it here before but they are what I call a lesbian team because they look good on paper but the parts don't fit. Gordon, Tim Thomas, and John Salmons are headachingly redundant and Noah and Ty Thomas are just missing Mikki Moore to make that the Three Stooges front court (I think Tyrus would be Moe, Noah Larry, and Mikki Curly, but they all just may be Shemp). Rose is good but if good Rondo shows up, it won’t matter.
Prediction: Celtics in 4. Get out the brooms folks, this one is going to be uglier than Steve Colter.
Philadelphia vs Orlando:
Warning: Upset special brewing here. This series has the biggest upset potential no matter what John Hollinger’s corny and completely made-up PER says. The Sixers play extremely well as a team and the Magic are 95% reliant on a player who has no offensive post moves, can’t shoot free throws, and may have too much of a happy-go-lucky demeanor to put a team away in the playoffs.
This series 100% comes down to Dwight Howard. If you look at the teams, every position is a tie or an advantage for Philly except for center.
PG: Miller vs. Alston
Say what you want about Miller but he smoothly runs the Sixers while Alston is a dime a dozen.
Winner: Slight advantage Sixers
SG: Willie Green vs. Courtney Lee
Lou Williams is getting more and more of the minutes and he can fill it up. Lee plays solid defense but doesn't do much else while Green is a surprisingly effective scorer (which is my nice way of saying he sucks 5 out of 6 games but in that 6th game he is really good).
Winner: Push
C: Dalembert vs. D-Ho
Ummm, Dalembert is like Mikki Moore with just a bit more coordination. D-Ho is a beast.
Winner: Orlando by alot (but do not count out an errant Dalembert elbow hitting Howard in the head and knocking him out).
Forward: Igoudala and Thaddeus Young vs. Hedo and Rashard Lewis
Igoudala may not be a number one player, but he is actually pretty good as long as he is not forcing up his shot. While Thad Young must lead the league in shots per assist, he has been shooting ~50%, can hit the 3, and actually gets ~2 steals per game. He is slightly more than one dimensional, which is a slight dimension more than Rashard Lewis. Lewis and Young are really not that far apart. Over the last month Young averaged 20 points and 5.5 boards while shooting 55% and Lewis averaged 16.5 points and 5 boards while shooting 44%.
Hedo is not necessarily a big game player as he was about 3-18 in a must win game against the Celtics the other week plus he is banged up. He's basically a slightly taller less athletic Igoudala.
Winner: Slight advantage for Orlando for the experience and Young's injury.
Bench: Speights, Lou Williams, and the underrated and all-workman teammates Reggie Evans and Royal Ivie vs. the French guy, JJ Redick, El Busto Battie, that Gortat guy, and Anthony "Beetlejuice" Johnson http://www.nba.com/media/magic/anthonyjohnson_article.jpg (compare for yourself):
Winner: The Sixers have way more talent and give much more effort unless the French guy Pietrus is for real.
So basically every position but center is close with the Sixers having a better bench and better point guard. So the question is, is Dwight Howard good enough to take over a playoff series? If D-Ho is mediocre, the Sixers win. If D-Ho plays the game with intensity and not like he just wants to get on tv, then the Magic should win because they have the best player by far. I guess I am just not convinced that Howard isn't still full of shit when it comes to winning, plus he can’t take over offensively, especially when Philly has 24 fouls to give between Dalembert, Speights, Ratliff, and Reggie Evans.
Prediction: Sixers in 7
Miami vs Atlanta:
Miami has the best player but Atlanta has the experience. I am pretty sure the Hawks have been playing possum for the past three months and will step up to this challenge. Unfortunately for Dwyane Wyane Wade, his only reliable teammates are a rookie in Mario Chalmers, a solid, though unspectacular, PF in Udonis Haslem and a 30+ year old big man who has lost about 15 steps in Jermaine O’Neal. The success of the Heat is going to come down to Michael Beasley not only becoming a reliable second scorer but also playing defense more than 15% of the time. Seeing as how at this point in his career Michael Beasley is as dependable as a Taco Bell burrito, the Heat will struggle.
The Hawks stepped up in the playoffs last year and there is no reason to think Joe Johnson, Al Horford, and Josh Smith will not do it again.
Prediction: Hawks in 6
Western Conference:
Utah vs LA Lakers:
Let’s not tell anyone and just keep this between you and me, but Utah is going to give the Lakers a challenge. The Jazz are finally healthy and although they have yet to put it together (in fact one could say they are in the midst of falling apart), they have the talent to stay with LA. Boozer, Deron “Darren” Williams, Kirilenko, Okur, Brewer, and even Milsap are decent players. Any chance they have to win though will come down to how well Ronnie Brewer can guard Kobe Bryant.
With Bynum back, LA’s front court is going to be just a little too much for Utah and Brewer probably won’t be able to stop Kobe when it counts unless he uses the anus of a teenage female hotel worker to defend Kobe. The one big wild card is Deron Williams as LA has no one to guard him.
LA is going to win, but this will be closer than people think.
Prediction: LA in 6
New Orleans vs Denver:
I have been crapping on Denver all year, waiting for them to implode since they’re not really that good. That said, New Orleans is playing horrible basketball right now. The Whorenets are basically Chris Paul and a bunch of has-beens, never-beens, and wanna-bes (except for David West, though K-Mart and Chris Andersen can shut him down). I wouldn’t be shocked if New Orleans upsets Denver, but it would take a Jordan-esque performance from Paul to do it.
Meanwhile, has any team disappointed more than New Orleans this year? AC thought they would contend for the regular season title in the West and yet they barely hung on to the 7th seed. If they don’t get some young talent in there next year, they may have peaked before they were even all that good like a young Punky Brewster .
Prediction: Denver in 6
Dallas vs. San Antonio:
It would be easy to pick against the Spurs here as Ginobili is out, Duncan is hurt, and Matt Bonner is still starting games for them. However, the Spurs still know how to win and Dallas still doesn’t play defense. I’ve learned three things over the last five years: 1. People who believe in free markets only do so in good times. 2. Just because you watched her on www.youporn.com, does not make her your girlfriend. 3. Never underestimate the Spurs.
The things Tony Parker is going to do to Jason Kidd make even Marilyn Chambers blush (and can we all pour out our next jimmie hat to the great Ms. Chambers? As Jiggy so eloquently e-mailed me on news of her death, “flags are at half mast.”). The thing most people forget is that Tony Parker is one of the top three point guards in the NBA and a top point guard on a veteran team who knows their roles and plays defense is more than enough to win a playoff series.
Prediction: Spurs in 5
Houston vs. Portland:
This is a very tough series to predict. On one hand you have everyone’s favorite trendy pick, the Blazers, and on the other hand you have everyone’s second favorite trendy pick, the Rockets. These are arguably the second and third best teams in the West, and by arguably I mean definitely. They both finished off the season on 22-8 runs and Blazers recently defeated the Lakers. Both teams do the little things well, neither has a dominant star player, and both have good coaches except for Houston (seriously, Rick Adelman blows. He’s done less with more talent than Eliza Dusku).
This series is simply going to come down to talent and the Blazers just have more of it. Sure the Rockets have Yao and Artest but the rest of the team is a bunch of role players like Battier and Lowry who excel at giving effort and at the things that don’t show up in the stat sheets (though missed shots do show up in the stat sheets, you hear that Kyle?). The thing is, those types of players become less effective in the playoffs since in the playoffs, everyone gives effort every night instead of 10% of the players giving effort on any given night in the regular season. The Battiers of the world are regular season winners because they always show up to play, when the more talented guys show up to play for real in the playoffs, they lose their effectiveness. Plus Portland has Oden and Pryzbilla and Aldridge to bother Yao.
Prediction: Portland in 6
As for AC’s overall playoff prediction, if KG does not return, the Cavs will beat the Lakers in 6. If KG does return, the Cavs will beat the Lakers in 6. Put those two together and you get the Cavs beating the Lakers in 6.
AC closed out the regular season 104-81 good for a 56% winning percentage and a ton of lap dances. If you would have bet $100 on every game with AC, you would have pocketed $1,490 after the VIG. So not only did AC give you a season’s worth of dick jokes and NBA insight, but he also gave you 74.5 free lap dances and that my friends is worth the price of admission (especially as admission is still free here at wagercom.com so remember any gratuities or pictures of your lady friends making out with other lady friends is greatly appreciated).
Also, AC will be picking games Saturday and Sunday to make up for the NBA’s idiotic decision to not start the playoffs on Friday night.
SATURDAY FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
Chicago at Boston Over 196.5:
I can’t tell you how much I hate the over/under and the spread for this game. Boston is going to win but it is difficult to tell how they will come out to play in Game 1 since
1. They have not quite found themselves defensively without Garnett
2. They are re-integrating Leon Powe into the rotation
3. They are still figuring out how Marbury fits in (though I am told by NY Knicks interns that he fits in quite well, though a little rough at times)
4. They haven’t played a real game in several weeks
If the line were 5, we’d be all over the Celtics but 8.5 makes me just a bit nervous, like when you’re watching a MILF Hunter video and your lady friend is asleep in the next room. You know there is a less than 5% chance that you get caught, but still, the repercussions of that 5% chance are never good.
Given that, the over seems like a better bet as we know the Bulls can score since they have a bunch of shot chuckers on their team and we know the Celtics defense is still in flux (see point 1 above). Plus there is a 35% chance the Celtics just demolish Chicago and go up by 20 in the third quarter thus opening the door to 8 minutes of scrub time in the fourth quarter when no defense will be played. The Celtics should score 110 so Chicago just needs to hit 86 and with Salmons, Gordon, and Tim Thomas begging for the ball, that should easily be done.
As a special bonus, tease the over and the Celtics minus the points if you can. That is the best bet here, other than that Tyrus Thomas will not hit a shot outside of 3 feet from the basket.
Detroit at Cleveland Over 175:
Another over here as 12 points is too many to give to the Pistons although it may also not be enough to take with the Pistons (see the dilemma?). These teams have met four times and the point totals have been 185, 170, 177, and 152 which is a 171 points per game average. I know the line is over that but Cleveland is going to be so pumped up for this game that they will easily drop 90+ points. To hit the over on 175, you just need one 50 point quarter and the Cavs are going to drop 30+ in the first so the odds are pretty good here. Take the over and watch LeDong show Detroit who’s the boss.
Dallas at San Antonio -4:
Ugh. Have I mentioned I hate picking the first game of playoff series? There are just so many uncertainties, like a night out with Ron Artest or the actual ingredients in a McDonald’s hamburger. With Ginobili out the Spurs will struggle to score against most teams but luckily for them, Dallas is not one of those teams. Jason Kidd trying to stop Tony Parker is like a moth trying to stop up a piece of elephant shit from falling on him, just not going to happen. Dallas plays defense like Isiah Thomas contributes to society which is infrequently and not well. Take the Spurs, give the points, and hope Roger Mason comes to play.
Houston at Portland Over 182:
Almost a round of overs today. I like teasing this with Houston and the points almost as much as I like teasing the poor and unfortunate. Aaron Brooks can push the ball, Brandon Roy can push the ball, and both teams go 9-10 players deep. This feels like a 100-95 type game and that gives us a 13 point cushion on the over so bet the over and consider it a down payment for the bottle of Cristal you’ll be toasting me with at the club later tonight. As always, bottoms up.
SUNDAY FREE NBA PLAYOFF PICKS
Utah +11.5 at LA Lakers:
This is the playoffs and we’re no longer giving more than 10 points to anyone in the West. The Lakers are assuredly going to win this game and Utah is awful on the road, but they should be able to keep this to under a touchdown and a field goal. I know LA just beat Utah by 13 in the final regular season game, and I know Utah was trying a lot harder than LA in that game, but the Jazz are just not losing by double digits here. Milsap and Boozer should be able to score with Gasol and Bynum while Kirilenko should be able to hamper Odom. That means it will come down to Kobe vs. Brewer and Williams vs. Fisher. Is the Kobe-Brewer difference 11.5 points greater than the Williams-Fisher difference? I don’t think so. Take the points and hope for a late scrub time rally by the Jazz, especially after the opening quarter barrage in which they will get caught up.
Philadelphia +9.5 at Orlando:
This is the one game Orlando could blow out Philly but I just don’t see it happening. As mentioned in the preview, the only real advantage Orlando has is Dwight Howard and he is still unproven in the playoffs. As long as Andre Igoudala shoots above 35%, Philadelphia should keep this in single digits. Also, watch Lou Williams, he loves to score like Joannie loves Chachi.
Miami at Atlanta Under 186:
If you’re feeling good, tease this with the Hawks -4.5 and if you’re feeling really good, instead of watching this game go run a 5k and then follow it up with a two hour session at The World Famous Mitchell Brothers O’Farrell Theatre. The Hawks don’t normally play defense but they will in the playoffs and they just need to hold Wade to under 33 for the under to hit.
New Orleans at Denver Over 194.5:
I know New Orleans doesn’t really have any scorers other than Paul and West but I do know that Denver still likes to fill it up despite not playing the hectic style some of you are used to seeing them play. These teams have played 4 times this year and only twice hit the over on 194.5 but this could be a close game so there will likely be a lot of free throws in final few minutes. Take the over, hope Melo comes to play, and enjoy the Chris Paul.
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