 |
AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
|
AC's Wagercom 2008-2009 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 122 Losses: 93 Ties: 2
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 57%
Contact AC at ac(at sign)wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC has had 6 consecutive winning seasons picking NBA games against the spread making you money including the VIG. AC does this out of the kindness of his heart and for the naked pictures of your girlfriends you send him as a token of your appreciation. So enjoy the columns and the picks..
AC'S NBA 2008-2009 NBA FREE PICKS CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES:
The Finals are here featuring the upstart Orlando Magic and the favorite Los Angeles Lakers. This promises to be an intriguing series as LA has the talent advantage but Orlando has the scrappiness and the "plays well together as a team” advantage. Sure if KG’s knee had been healthy or if Cleveland had one supporting player to help LeDong, Orlando would be sitting on the beach enjoying the sun, but neither of those were the case so now the Magic get to attempt to be the worst team to win an NBA title since the 1994-1995 Houston Rockets. The NBA, where amazing happens.
As usual, AC will break down this series and then give his picks against the spread for each Finals game (so check back on game days). To assist the analysis, AC will answer the most important question for each positional match-up before letting you all know who is going to win (and this is where someone would sneeze “Lakers” if this were a TV show).
Point guard: Will Jameer Nelson play and contribute?
As dumb as this sounds (though not as dumb sounding as Roscoe P. Coltrane reading Dr. Seuss or Sarah Palin speaking in mononsyllabic words), Jameer Nelson could win this series for Orlando. I know it is a huge leap to think that could happen but before Nelson got hurt, he was absolutely the heart of this team and the key to their winning. He controlled the offense, got them to play lock down defense, and created a mid range jump shooting game which left their three point shooters even more open.
Now, he hasn’t played in four months, he might not be 100% injury-free, and the Magic are gelling without him so there is only a 3% chance he will return to what he was in February. That said, if all he does is take Anthony “Beeltejuice” Johnson’s 12 minutes a night, that could be a big jolt for the Magic’s chances.
Without Nelson coming back, the point guards are largely irrelevant, like Todd Bridges or a stripper’s real name. Rafer Alston has enough knucklehead in him that one is never quite sure what to expect and Derek Fisher’s best days left him in 2003.
So while Orlando is saying Nelson will play, you have to pretty much discount that and/or his ability to contribute after such a long lay off.
Shooting Guard: Can Courtney Lee bother Kobe?
First of all, AC loves him some Courtney Lee. Lee is athletic, smart, and most of all fearless. He has hit several big shots for the Magic in crunch time in these playoffs and he never seems to really force anything. He plays within the game and pesters his opponent on defense.
Of course, that’s all well and good against Delonte West and his facial herpes but covering Kobe is an entirely different thing. It’s like going from filming Disney movies straight to riding on the Bang Bus. This series is Kobe’s chance to cement his legacy after choking away that opportunity last season. With his legs not getting any younger and the unknown happenings of an NBA season, this could be Kobe’s best last chance to try to be the top dog on a title winner so expect him to bring it.
Therefore, as much as I love Courtney Lee (and yes I was early on Lou Williams, Carl Landry, and Paul Milsap as well), he is going to be running into a force. I don’t expect Lee to be able to bother Kobe enough to make a difference in this series, but when you play as fearlessly as he does, there is always a small chance.
Center: Will the real Andrew Bynum please stand up (unless standing up will cause him to break his knee again):
Andrew Bynum is an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, dropped in a mystery, and currently covered in feces. To say he has underperformed in the playoffs is like saying General Motors is just having some tiny growing pains. The thing to remember is that Bynum only played four regular season games after missing over two months with a knee injury. He’s still only 21 years old and in the five games he played before getting injured he averaged 26 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 blocked shots. Those numbers are impressive for even an in his prime Shaq. Of course, since coming back Bynum has been less consistent than a burrito and warm beer ridden diarrhea. For the playoffs he is averaging a Mark Acres-esque 6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1 blocked shot per game.
The point is, Bynum has a ton of talent and if he can just be a presence on the defensive end, the Lakers could dominate (the key word being could) the Magic. As we saw during the Celtics-Magic series, Dwight Howard has the offensive moves of a blind leper with arthritis. Kendrick Perkins totally shut him down by staying behind him and not getting pushed around. Howard was able to dominate the Cavs because Ilgauskus (which comes from the Lithuanian root “gaus” meaning “statue-like” or having “statue-like qualities) simply can not guard quicker players (and by quicker, I mean any). Unfortunately for the Magic, Bynum has a similar body type to Kendrick Perkins and he is young and athletic. Fortunately for the Magic, he currently sucks.
If Bynum can just keep Howard off of the offensive glass, not get pushed around, and force Howard to catch the ball and make offensive moves, this will be a short series. If he sucks like he has against Utah and Denver, LA will run into problems.
Power Forward: Is this the reason people no longer watch men’s tennis (of course, it’s not clear to me anyone ever did)?
Let me explain the question. First of all, I am not a tennis fan nor have ever been one. Watching two dudes prance around and hit a ball over a net with a racquet while the crowd must remain quiet is as interesting to me as the White House pet or anything on the country music channel. That said, from what I understand, even tennis fans are bored of men’s tennis because there are so many aces. Players serve the ball at ungodly speeds and thus there are fewer volleys, rallies, and diddles (or whatever they call them). Basically, whoever has the biggest serve wins which I guess is exceedingly dull as opposed to just regular dull. The point is, the person serving usually can not be stopped.
This is like the Rashard Lewis-Pau Gasol match-up. Neither one should be able to stop the other one on offense. Gasol should be able to take Lewis down low and treat him like he’s auditioning for a role in Deliverance. Gasol is extremely talented in the post and can simply over power and out finesse Lewis. The flip side of that is that Lewis can completely abuse Gasol on offense as well. Lewis can draw Gasol out on defense and either blow by him for a quick pull up or get enough separation on him to drain a three pointer. Lewis has been creating mismatches for two series now, but this is the first time he will also be stuck in a defensive mismatch. I know the Lakers can shift Gasol to center and bring Odom in to play Lewis which would mitigate this offense-a-thon, but if that doesn’t happen, expect both of these guys to put up points.
Small Forward: Are two heads better than one?
Unfortunately for Orlando, the answer in this case is yes. While the Magic run out the king of the step back three pointer at small forward in Hedo Turkoglu, the Lakers run out a rotation of Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom. Ariza is quick enough that he should be able to alter Hedo’s offensive game, shutting down any ability to drive and getting a hand in his face at the three point arc. Taking Hedo out of Orlando’s offense would be a big bonus for LA. Of course, since Ariza sucks at offense, Hedo will get to take a breather on defense until LA brings in Odom.
Lamar Odom is like the inconsistent, blacker, slightly less Turkish version of Turkoglu. He doesn’t shoot as well as Hedo, but he can drive and pass better. That said, he apparently takes every 3rd or 4th game off as he comes down from his sugar highs (though perhaps during pre-game shoot arounds JJ Redick can let him know the proper way to eat a Jolly Rancher).
Basically LA has two guys who can go at or mitigate Turkoglu and neither one is much of a step down from Hedo (in fact good Odom is a step up). So LA will have fresh legs throughout the game while Orlando will have a set of tired legs. This is truly a case of two heads being better than one, especially one that is as big and fugly as Hedo’s (and it looks like Hedo loves Chunk, in fact I believe he is up for the role in Goonies 2).
Bench: Are the socialists even taking over basketball now?
The answer appears to be yes as Frenchman Mickael Pietrus has wreaked havoc on the opposition in this year’s playoffs. If France had been filled with Pietrus’ there wouldn’t have been a World War II as France would have cremated the Nazis. Pietrus is everything you would want in a 6th man. He runs, he plays defense, he hits three pointers, he rebounds, he brings energy, and he doesn’t talk back (well maybe he does, but no one in Orlando speaks French so who cares).
Along with Pietrus, the Magic bench has been a huge difference maker for them in the playoffs. Anthony “Beetlejuice” Johnson has given them adequate back-up PG minutes and Marcin Gortat might be the best back-up center in basketball (and yes I typed that with a straight face and yes I have watched NBA basketball before). Plus every once in awhile they roll out Tony Battie for the occasionally 5 minutes of fun which is enjoyable for all.
The Lakers also have a solid bench with Odom, Walton, Farmar, Vujachick, and the out of nowhere Shannon Brown (and I had to google that to make sure it was not Devin Brown). From a depth perspective, LA is much deeper but they may need more than just Josh Powell to bang with Dwight Howard once Bynum gets into foul trouble. Plus Pietrus has truly been a difference maker for Orlando while Odom has just been a difference maker in every third game.
Coaching: Did Jerry Lewis ever get the girl over Dean Martin?
Honestly, I don’t know the answer to that question but Lewis was paid more so at some point he must have. Anyway, this question is significant because Stan Van Gundy is spastic, jumpy, panicky, and even a bit buffoonish while Phil Jackson is laid back, successful on his own, has been there before, and is even banging the owners daughter. So Van Gundy is a shorter, fatter, bad-mustachioed Jerry Lewis while Phil Jackson is a taller, less drunk Dean Martin. We all know Jackson got outcoached by Doc Rivers in last year’s playoffs (the same Doc Rivers who almost ruined the Celtics season by bringing Tony Allen into Game 6 of the Chicago series for which AC will never forgive him) so it is possible Van Gundy will out coach him here. For all the crap he has taken, Van Gundy has coached decently enough, especially after getting called out by Dwight Howard following Game 5 against Boston. It is possible that the spazzy Jerry Lewis one time got a girl from Dean Martin and thus it is possible that Van Gundy can get a title from Phil Jackson.
Intangibles: Who’s afraid of the big bad wolf?
This is yet to be determined but the Magic are inexperienced and though they have shrugged off all challenges so far, playing for the title against LA should increase the daily scrutiny placed upon them and thus the media and expectations will become the big bad wolf. With a skittish coach and no real leader other than the probably injured Jameer Nelson, there has to be some doubt as to how Orlando will fare if LA puts the pressure on them.
In LA’s case, the big bad wolf is Dwight Howard and they will need to contain him on the offensive boards as well as not be intimidated by him in the defensive paint. Gasol and Bynum need some of Courtney Lee’s fearlessness and if they play strong, that will be a huge advantage for the Lakers.
As far as intangible, LA has been in the Finals before, has played under scrutiny all year, and Kobe is going to be pushing his team harder than he ever has to win.
Overall: Is anybody still reading this?
Heck, I’m barely still writing this. The Lakers simply have more talent than the Magic who may run out of gas in this improbable run to the title. As shown in the match-ups above, the only real advantages the Magic have are at center (which can be mitigated), in the quality of their bench (as opposed to the quantity), and at point guard in the 3% chance Jameer Nelson is healthy and not rusty and doesn’t disrupt the current team chemistry. There are just too many ifs for Orlando (If Jameer plays, if Bynum continues to suck, if they don’t wilt under the pressure, if Hedo can score on Ariza, if Van Gundy doesn’t do something stupid) to trust them.
Most importantly, Kobe is still the best player on the court, Dwight Howard still has fewer offensive moves than Dane Cook has had good movies, and LA still has the experience.
AC is going with LA in 6 unless they decide to give effort every game and then they will win in 5. The one disclaimer is that if Jameer Nelson comes back and plays like he did pre-injury, all bets are off. Absent that, too much Kobe, too much Gasol, too much Odom, and maybe even a little bit of Bynum will send the Magic back to Disney World to wave to them during their victory parade.
Championship Game One Free NBA Pick:
Orlando at LA Lakers -6:
I honestly thought people would be overbetting this game for LA and the line was going to be Lakers -9. If that were the case, I was going to take Orlando and the points, but 6 just isn’t enough. The Magic may surprise LA at first with their feistiness, but LA is at home, well rested, and seemingly hungry after their two wins to close out the Denver series. The over 206 isn’t a bad bet either, but if LA doesn’t blow Orlando out, they will hit more free throws at the end to cover. So don’t get worried if it is a 2 or 3 point game with a minute to go, LA will get fouled and they shoot free throws well. Take the Lakers, give the points, and hope Bynum shows up.
Championship Game Two Free NBA Pick:
Orlando at LA Lakers -6.5:
Dear Orlando,
How my ass taste?
Love,
Kobe Bryant
Game One was barely a game as not even the return of Jameer Nelson could stave off the hungry and determined Lakers. There are 5 simple reasons why LA won so easily.
1. Andrew Bynum put up 9 points and 9 boards in only 22 minutes while mitigating Dwight Howard’s work on the offensive glass. In the opening 5 minutes Bynum shot 3 for 3 with 5 boards and clearly set the tone that he would not be pushed around.
2. Orlando’s 3 point shooting fell back to Earth to the tune of 8-23 (which I am told is a country and western tune and that is why it sucked)
3. Rashard Lewis can not guard Pau Gasol. He simply can’t do it. I almost wonder if the Magic would be better trying a defensive line-up of Howard and Gortat in order to stop Gasol and Bynum. Sure they would have no offense, but a healthy Jameer driving the lanes with the two big guys down low would still leave enough open space for Rashard or Turkoglu to get open for 3.
4. It was bound to happen sooner or later. Orlando has been on a ridiculous run. They were due for a deer in the headlights game where they freeze up and just get demolished. This team has been resilient for 18 games, at some point you just start becoming silient (and yes I know that is not a word, but let’s pretend it means the opposite of resilient).
5. A little thing called Kobe Bryant. Sorry Courtney Lee, I think you are going to be very good, but as AC said in his preview, going from covering Delonte West to covering Kobe Bryant is like going from Disney movies straight to the Bang Bus. You can’t just skip the intermediate steps of independent films, crappy big blockbuster movie, and b-movies on Skinamax and expect everything to be ok.
I was shocked this morning that the Game 2 spread was not at least 9.5. Are Laker fans dead? How are they not over betting this?
Look, I know it is preposterous to think Game 2 will be another blow out (though not as preposterous as Jack Black’s acting career or organized religion)as things just don’t work out like that. Teams never get blown out twice in a row in the Finals, it just doesn’t happen. If I did my math correctly, the only time in the past 20 years a team has been blown out in two consecutive games in the Finals (as defined by losing by 15+ points) was in 2005 when San Antonio and Detroit each did it (amazing, huh?). Otherwise the game after a blow out either completely reverses or is much closer.
Luckily for us, with the line only 6.5 points, we don’t need a blow out. The Magic will pick up their 3 point shooting and Dwight Howard will play better, but in the end the Lakers will prevail and 6.5 is just another few free throws at the end of the game.
I don’t love giving 6.5 here, but there is a fork ominously close to Orlando’s back and Kobe Bryant is hungry.
Championship Game Three Free NBA Pick:
LA Lakers +4 at Orlando:
I know, the Magic are a missed Courtney Lee alley-oop from having tied this series. I also know they are a healthy Kevin Garnett knee tendon from not even being in this series. The point is, you can’t polish a turd (unless it has petrified) and right now the Magic are the non-petrified turd and Kobe is doing the polishing (and we all know Kobe has a predilection for turd polishing as witnessed by his sodomoizing of unwilling hotel workers).
The Magic should certainly shoot better at home, but Andrew Bynum will not pick up so many stupid fouls either (ummm, I know that is not based on much research as he loves stupid fouls more than Joanie loves Chachi and more than AROD loves shemales).
This is the absolute worst kind of game to bet on the Lakers since there is absolutely no motivation for them to win. LA gets lazy, bored, indifferent, and downright apathetic when there is no pressure on them to win and being up 2-0 in a 7 game series with 2 more home games means there will be less pressure on them than there is on Bill Gates’ kids to support their old man in his retirement. The Lakers are the first NBA team that should be prescribed Viagra because they have performance anxiety issues and can only get up for big games.
This is what we know:
1. Orlando played better in Game 2 than in Game 1.
2. The Magic are due for a hot shooting night and when they shoot well, they are almost unbeatable in the current semi-watered down NBA.
3. The Lakers suck when they don’t need to win, and they don’t need to win.
4. Everybody should be taking Orlando -4 here, everybody.
And it is for reason #4 that AC is taking the Lakers and the points. There is absolutely no reason for them to cover and as always, when there is no reason for something to happen (like Natalie Portman dating this clown), it usually does.
Take the Lakers and just hope someone gave them their NBA Viagra and hope Bynum stops playing with the same mental abilities of Tony Allen with half a brain.
Championship Game Four Free NBA Pick:
LA Lakers at Orlando Under 201.5:
First of all, I have not yet calmed down from the travesty of Game 3. If you missed the end of the game, Kobe hit a lay up with .5 seconds to go to cut the lead to 2. Since AC had the Lakers +4 (and I assume you all bet with me), the faint scent of lobster tails and blowjobs began permeating the room at that point in time (and for those of you unaware of what the scent of a hummer smells like, it smells like “delicious”).
Anyway, with victory all but assured, Orlando immediately inbounded the ball and then the refs called a foul on Kobe as the buzzer sounded even though:
1. The game was essentially over. They put .2 seconds on the clock just to save face but there was no way for a Laker tip in from full court with that much time. Just couldn’t happen.
2. It is physically impossible to catch an inbounds pass AND GET FOULED in .5 seconds. The catch takes at least .2 seconds and the swat has to be at least .3.
So Rashard Lewis goes to the line for meaningless free throws (UNLESS YOU BET ON THE GAME) sinks them both and everybody loses, VIG be damned.
I demand an investigation into this. That foul doesn't get called 99.999% of the time, but it did in a situation where it directly affected the line. I want all phone records from Tim Donaghy’s jail from Tuesday night. This needs to be looked into by the NBA.
As for tonight, AC is perplexed. Orlando is not going to shoot 75% from the floor again, so taking the Lakers +2.5 is a pretty easy pick. That said, Orlando can shoot 50% from behind the three point arc, so they are always in the game and LA is just so inconsistent one never quite knows what to expect. The best bet here is to tease the under with the Lakers and the points but we don’t tease here at wagercom.com because we respect the feelings of others.
So take the under and just hope LA does not put up 120 points, which may happen if they remember Pau Gasol can not be stopped.
Championship Game Five Free NBA Pick:
LA Lakers at Orlando Under 198.5:
So Orlando choked away a 12 point halftime lead and a 5 point lead in the final two minutes in Game 4. I guess that is what happens when your best player’s best offensive move is not breaking the backboard when he shoots and when your best player also shoots free throws like it will give him AIDS. Hopefully you all took the under with AC (which was such a great pick that even the extra 5 minute overtime still gave us an 11 point cushion) but more than anything hopefully you all teased it with LA +2.5 as AC instructed. If so, I hope the lap dances were good.
Game 5 is a bit of a dilemma. Like Game 3, the Lakers have absolutely no reason to win, none at all. They get two games at home if they lose and there is no way they are losing both of those. This Lakers team just doesn’t play well when they don’t have to, it’s truly bizarre and a sign of how crappy the NBA turned out to be this year once Kevin Garnett hurt his knee. The problem isn’t just that the Lakers suck when they don’t need to win, it’s that Orlando is still completely full of shit. If they hit their 3s, they win. If not, they lose. So you are gambling on two great unknowns tonight: LA’s desire and Orlando’s 3 point shooting. Color me underwhelmed (unless underwhelmed is a bright pink).
Here at Wagercom.com, we don’t gamble on unknowns, which is why we consistently win you money (except for Jiggy and DJ, but humor us a bit here). In AC’s Finals preview, he said LA would win in 5 or 6 depending on their effort and AC still doesn’t know how to gauge that effort. In that case, while taking Orlando -3 feels like the right pick, we don’t bet on feels (though we try to cop as many as we can). Until Dwight Howard can shoot 70% from the line, the under is the best bet here because Orlando plays defense and can struggle to score. Plus if the Lakers don’t give effort, this game will be over early.
Take the under and if the Lakers lose, get ready to roll your winnings over into Game 6.
Wagercom.com recommends sportsbook.com for all your sports wagering. Click here to join now and receive a generous sign up bonus!
contact AC at ac(at sign)wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
To sign up to receive the Wagercom.com Free Newsletter click here.
|
