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AC TITTICOCK'S WEEKLY FREE NBA BASKETBALL PICKS AND WINNERS
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AC's Wagercom 2009-2010 NBA Picks Season Record
Wins: 28 Losses: 26 Ties: 2
NBA Picks Winning Percentage: 52%
Contact AC at ac(at sign)wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Read AC's Bio
AC's outlook on the NBA is an entertaining original column featured here at Wagercom. If you are prone to NBA betting or even just an NBA fan, make sure you come back often to read his articles and free NBA Basketball picks against the spread. AC will be providing us with a weekly outlook during the basketball season including free NBA Basketball picks on some of the weekend games each Friday and Saturday.
Our NBA expert AC has had 6 consecutive winning seasons picking NBA games against the spread making you money including the VIG. AC does this out of the kindness of his heart and for the naked pictures of your girlfriends you send him as a token of your appreciation. So enjoy the columns and the picks..
AC'S FREE NBA PICKS AND COLUMN WEEK 7:
The NBA season is in full force as we’ve already had our share of injuries (Danny Granger’s heel, Lou Williams’ jaw, Kevin Martin’s wrist, and Vinny Del Negro’s ego), sleeper teams (Sacramento and Milwaukee), and great performances (Brandon Jennings 55 point night). We’ve also had enough time to judge players and get a feel for who has actually improved this year. Given that, this week AC will look at the five most improved/surprising players through the first quarter of the season.
Kendrick Perkins: Kperk, as he is known to Boston fans, came into the season never having averaged more than 9 points or 6.5 shots per game. He also came into the year holding the all-time NBA record for most times bringing the ball down in the post and having it stolen from him (an infuriating part of Kperk’s game that was such an obvious and fixable blemish, like Jewel’s teeth or Einstein’s cosmological constant (ok, maybe the cosmological constant wasn’t a blemish after all, but I digress)).
This year Kperk has cut down that flaw by a factor of about a million and as a result he is hitting more shots (since he is not getting them blocked) to the tune of a league leading 65% shooting %. He is also scoring 12 points a game (which is just under his scoring average if you add up what he averaged per game in each of his first four years) in only 27 minutes of playing time while rebounding and blocking shots at rates of 8 and 2 per game. Most of all though, his defense continues to improve as he is an immovable force in the paint. Not even D-Wight Howard or Shaq can move him and thus he is able to force the dominant centers away from the hoop and into shots that are more than simple dunks or baby hooks. He’s not quite an all-star, but his game gets better every year and if he could get his rebounding up a bit while improving his ft %, he could be a force. Some team is definitely going to overpay for him when he becomes a free agent and being on a different team would certainly raise his scoring average as he currently has to compete with KG, Pierce, and Ray Allen for shots.
Ersan Ilyasova: Ersan has come back to the US much stronger and better than before (you hear that David Beckham guy? Maybe you should leave and then come back in a few years and people will give a fuck about you. Or maybe just do something that Americans give a shit about other than play soccer, like race a car, drink a lot of beer, or cheat on your wife with a bunch of skanks). Ilyasova, was way too young when he first tried playing for the Bucks three years ago, heck he wasn’t even old enough to buy alcohol or even get abused by a catholic priest.
In his return from the delicious country of Turkey, he has put up solid numbers for the surprising Bucks while always being around the ball when it matters. He’s a bit like a Turkish Scottie Pippen but with a smaller nose and about 17 fewer kids. He’s averaging 12 points and 7.5 rebounds in 24 minutes a night while playing reasonably decent defense. Ersan is just 22 so he has plenty of time to improve and could be an all-star in three to four years if he continues to get better at this rate.
Josh Smith: You might be asking how could a border line all-star be one of the most improved players in the league and the answer is simple: Volume. Smith has reduced the volume of his three point shooting where for the last four years he bricked them up at a rate under 30% while shooting almost 1.5 of them per game. He has averaged over 100 three point field goal attempts over the last four years while through 21 games this year, he has attempted only 3 (and missed them all too). That is an amazing adjustment and one that would have been impossible to forecast. How often do you see a player stop doing something fun (take threes), check his ego, and make the team better?
As a result of his shooting decisions, Smith has raised his FG% to 53% from his previous lifetime average of ~45%. His blocks have also come back to the level they were two years ago as he is leading the league with 2.5 blocks per game. The amazing thing about Smith is that he is only 24 and if he can figure out that he shouldn’t be shooting threes, there is no telling what other parts of his game he can improve upon in the next few years (like rebounding and passing).
Trevor Ariza: While this is not as surprising as running into the heretofore unknown Gracie Glam on spankwire and falling deeply in love with her in ways that would make all of our anuses hurt (and Gracie, AC knows you are reading this and can assure you that he would treat you and every hole you have like princesses should you so desire), it is still quite a bit of improvement. To be honest, the most amazing thing about Ariza’s improvement is that despite this being his 6ff year, he is still only 24 years old.
Ariza averaged 9 points in the regular season last year before breaking out somewhat in the playoffs and averaging 11 points per game. He has always been a big upside player but until the end of last year, he had mostly languished on the bench for marginal teams and only once averaged more than 20 minutes a night. Well Houston plugged the data into their model, watched Ariza step up for the Lakers in the playoffs, and decided to drop a big sum of dough and sign him. And wow, were they right. Ariza is carrying Houston’s scoring load by averaging 18 points a night on a whopping 17 shots per game (Hint: That’s not very good as he is shooting below 40%). Interestingly, he is attempting over 6 three pointers a game and hitting just over 2 of them, again, a terrible shooting % but someone on Houston has to shoot the ball. Add to his scoring 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals per game and you have a pretty good player. He’s going to have to figure out how to shoot a higher % if he wants to be an all-star, but he is filling a big need for Houston who is without their volume scorer from last year in Tracy McGrady.
Carl Landry: Landry has moved from really underrated to completely underlooked. Heck, I wrote this column and only included the previous four players, completely forgetting about Landry. This year he has almost doubled his scoring average to 16 per game while continuing to shoot at a blistering 57% from the floor and 88% from the line. He’s one of the five most efficient players in the game. Add in his 6 rebounds per game in only 26 minutes of floor time and you have not just a potential sixth man of the year, but a budding star.
Honorable Mentions: Ryan Anderson, Marreese Speights, Jason Thompson, and Anthony Morrow.
Friday Night Picks:
Houston at Philadelphia Under 194:
Neither of these teams is particularly good at scoring and the Sixers are still figuring out how to play with Iverson again, while Iverson is simply figuring out how to play again. The only thing that has been worse than AI’s shooting in his two game return to Philly this week has been all of the Tiger Woods jokes coming out. To remedy this, AC is going to take 5 minutes and write as many bad Tiger Woods jokes as he can just to show you all what a comedy dream this is.
1. What’s the difference between Tiger Woods and a rotting piece of shit?
A: A rotting piece of shit doesn’t have herpes
2. How may Tiger Woods does it take to screw in a light bulb?
A: Only one, but I don’t know how he gets in there and I don’t want to touch the light bulb afterwards.
3. What’s the difference between Pepe Le Pew and Tiger Woods?
A: One loves skunks and the other loves skanks.
4. Why did Tiger Woods cross the road?
A: To get to the other whore.
5. What’s the difference between Tiger Woods and a gardener?
A: A gardener only has one hoe.
So there it is 5 minutes (actually 6) and 5 very bad Tiger Woods jokes. Fuck give me 5 more minutes and I’ll have Leno’s job.
As for the Sixers and Rockets, they both struggle to score and unless AI gets really hot, this should be a game in the low 90s. So take the under and hope Samuel Dalembert keeps swinging those elbows and scaring people out of the lane.
Orlando +1.5 at Phoenix:
Orlando just lost a tough game at Utah where they imploded in the third quarter like Tiger Woods’ advertising career (see the jokes keep coming, like Tiger Woods in a Vegas hotel room…). The Magic are too good of a team to not come back after their poor showing last night so even though this is the second of back to back games on the road against a rested decent team, Orlando should prevail. The last time they lost on the first of back to back nights, they came back and destroyed Atlanta in Atlanta on the second night. Take the Magic and hope Rashard Lewis finds his stroke (speaking of which, what is Tiger Woods’ favorite part of a golf stroke? The steady head. Boooyah!!!!!!).
New York Knicks +7 at New Orleans:
Gentlemen, ladies, miscreants, this bet hurts me more than Dunkin Donuts hurt Kirstie Alley’s career. The Knicks are an abomination, just truly terrible, and yet how can I take them on the road? Makes no sense. Just hear me out for a second though.
1. New York has won three in a row and four out of five after jettisoning Nate Robinson to the bench and cutting the rotation to eight players.
2. New Orleans does not have much offensive firepower and thus if the Knicks can dictate the pace, they can keep the game close.
3. New Orleans’ record is overstated (that is if you can overstate 10 and 11) because they have played an inordinate amount of bad opponents).
4. Chris Paul can play this game and could dominate the Knicks by himself (wait, this point hurts me, fuck).
So is AC really going to trust the Knicks on the road when just two short weeks ago it looked like they were going to be taken out behind Madison Square Garden and put down for the sake of humanity? Yes, yes he is. But let this be our dirty little secret, like Jamie Grubbs was Tiger Woods’ dirty little secret (and Jamie Jungers, and Rachel Uchitel (to be fair, AC does love him some Rachel Uchitel)….).
Portland at Cleveland -9:
There are very few things I like about this pick except Cleveland is 8 and 2 at home and four of their last five home wins have been by double digits and Portland is 6 and 5 on the road but have lost four of their last five away from home. I’d feel a lot better if this line were only 5 points, because the Blazers could pull out a victory, but Cleveland has just lost two in a row on the road and should be energized by being back in Cleveland (and yes, that is the first time anyone has ever called anything about Cleveland energizing). Take the Cavs and root for Shaq to fit in.
Saturday Night Picks:
Another tough night for AC. A narrow loss in the Phoenix game and an exactly right call in the Cleveland game, but too stupid to take his own advice. This is what AC said about Cleveland-Portland: “I’d feel a lot better if this line were only 5 points” and sure enough, Cleveland won by 5. That is the second time in two weeks AC has correctly guessed the final line and yet bet the other way. Something is rotten in wagercom.com land, but AC will soon remedy it and find his groove.
Indiana +8 at Washington:
After watching Washington sleepwalk and fumble their way against Boston on Thursday night, I just can’t see how they are 8 points better than anyone, even a Granger-less Pacers team. To say the Wizards lack chemistry, is to say Tiger Woods may have slept around once or twice. The Pacers are coming off a good win last night and only have to travel from NY or NJ (where the fuck do teams stay when they play the Nets?) to DC so they shouldn’t be too tired (unless of course they spent last night in NYC, and then the stank on Roy Hibbert’s breath from Wild Turkey and whore may be enough to deter the Wizards from going to the hole). Take the Pacers and hope TJ Ford can push the action.
Phoenix +9 at Denver:
At home, Denver treats teams like they are the butt in a Big Butts, Round Asses video. They absolutely dominate them. That said, Phoenix has just enough bite in them to keep this under 10. We don’t need Phoenix to win, we just need them to play decently for 3 quarters.
LA Lakers at Utah -1.5:
I assume the Jazz are favored because Kobe broke his finger last night when he used the wrong digit to go shock thumb on a hotel worker. Ok, that’s probably not how he did it, but after injuring it in the first half, he came back for the second and reports are that he will play tonight. Granted, his shooting may struggle but anytime the Lakers are getting points this year, AC is taking them. Just make sure you check the news to see if Kobe’s playing status has changed before you bet this.
Boston -9.5 at Chicago:
This is a tough one. To take the Celtics here, you have to believe Chicago has absolutely no fight in them because Boston is due for a stinker. This Celtics team tends to get disinterested when things are going to well for them and having just won 9 in a row, things are going too well. The Bulls showed some friskiness by barely beating a bad Golden Shower State Warriors team in overtime at home last night, so they might be feeling good about themselves. For Boston to cover, they are going to need Ray Allen to find his three point stroke and RaWeed Wallace to forget about his. Take Boston and hope good Rondo shows up.
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