JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS

NFL Forecast & Week 1 Free Football Picks

Here I am. The world of the NFL is blank canvas waiting to be secreted upon by the performance artist that is Jiggy. I can already see the urine, blood, saliva and semen stains that will adorn that canvas. And you know what? It looks beautiful. Now this column is usually flippant, dashing, somewhat edgy and even funny. But that was preseason and this is serious. No more jokes, no more fun (except at the expense of the stupid, frail or homosexual – sorry you had to hear that Jeff Garcia). But I don’t want to come off as a homophobe – especially because I love lesbians. But enough preamble, let’s get to the nitty and the gritty.

So as the season begins I am going to work with a couple of hypotheses. The first of which is that typically defenses gel faster than offenses do. Last season in week two all of the following teams won and beat the spread, New England, Baltimore, Dallas and Miami. I would classify all of these squads as defense oriented. Also, many of them were visiting teams. And you will see the importance of noting that in the next paragraph.

The second is that home field advantage doesn’t really have any effect until the middle of the season when injuries are worse, bodies are tired and travel is truly draining. Late in the season the time change and the time lost in the air, car, security and the like is more valuable. In fact in the first 3 weeks of last season, the home team won only 50% of the time – and that percentage rose every week of the season (or at least every three weeks – you know a brother has got to get some data smoothing going on). Another interesting note from last season is that in the first 3 weeks of the year, the home team won only 36% of the time against the spread.

Also of note is the scoring. In the beginning of last season the odds makers were overly optimistic about the offenses, in fact only 40% of the games in the first three weeks went Over.

Given the info from above, let’s try and highlight defensive oriented teams that are favorites (they covered 52% of the time during the first three weeks) and also lean toward taking the Unders when available. I also want to highlight a bet that I am sure some think is a sucker bet, but the teaser can be a nice maneuver.

Dolts @ Pats – Patriots -3.5

I can’t help but getting some love on the first game of the season. And what is good is that is possesses many of the above traits – or at least one anyway. You have to love the defensive prowess of our pals from New England. And this early in the season when you have a defense that is relentless and angry and an offense that hasn’t really had a chance to see full speed, full quizzicality defense you have a mismatch. In addition you have a home team that is a favorite. We aren’t going to give points for the homeness – but we do know that favorites cover more often than underdogs in the beginning of the season. And then of course you mix in the fact that Tony Dumby and Gayton ‘I wish my dad would stop all of these mean defensive players from jumping on me and causing my passes to be intercepted’ Manning versus ‘Hoodie’ Belicheck and Corey ‘Thank the gods I am not on the Bengals anymore’ Dillon it is almost a no-brainer. I am going to look for this one to go under the number and see our Pats get nutty with a low scoring win. Take the Pats and give the points. Also make a special note to count the number of times Eli Manning is mentioned and how odd it is that Gayton never has a girlfriend. I am not insinuating gay incest – but let’s not rule anything out just yet. Oh, and did I mention that the Pats whipped the dolts last season and then went on to win the Stupid Bowl?

Boys @ Vikes – Cowboys +4.5

Can a brother get a Amen? I just like asking that. I am sticking with my theory with this game. You have one of the premiere defenses in the league versus an offense that requires timing and features a back with bones of brittle tin who will miss this game. I think that the Tuna has the Boys ready, willing and perturbed. I think that the Tuna will befuddle Duante and prevent the Viking offense from getting anything started. I think that Vinny ‘Testicles’ Testaverde will perform in a workmanlike manner and I think the Boys will either win a close one or lose and still cover. I love the defense.

Tenny @ Bienvenidos a Miami – Miami +3

This one is an interesting play. I think we have a world that don’t give no respect to the phish. Yes, they lost all word blunt smoker, Tricky Icky and yes their coach’s IQ is in the single digits and yes, their QB was on the ‘get ready to be cut’ list – but they have an all-universe defense, their coach managed to almost get them to the play-offs last year, Tricky Ricky only put up about 2 yards per carry and their QB managed to get some tough wins. The world has overlooked the Fins and they have showered praise on the Titans because of their ‘oh so revered’ QB, Stevie ‘ray vaughn’ McNair. I don’t have real confirmation of this, but I bet that poor Steve can’t even rub one out most nights because he is so arthritic and tired. And if any of you can name the starting running back in TN I will be impressed. It ain’t Eddie ‘murphy’ George ‘foreman’ no more – he is stinking up Dallas. It could be impressive youngster, Kris Brown or Antoooooowaaaannn Smiff. But it don’t matter. The D of the fish will be enough to sputter the Titans. Take the fish and the points.

NFL Lock of the Week

Prime Time ‘n Ray Ray @ ‘I am not Gay no Matter What T.O. Says’ - Ravens -3

Batten down the hatches, close the shutters and get the women and children to the cellar – Ray Ray is coming to town. Now I love to make fun of strife and natural disasters – but I am not sure that those two hurricanes could do as much damage to Florida as the Ravens are going to do to the Clowns. This defense is filled with primal cannibals and that is no exaggeration. Ray and his ilk are going to dismantle Cleveland. Jeff Garcia wasn’t good with TO running routes and Kevan Barlow and Garrison Hearst shouldering the load (I said load in the same sentence as Jeff Garcia – tee hee) how do you think he will do with the all-penal facility backfield (I said penal in the same sentence as Jeff Garcia – ho ho ho) and Ellen Winslow JUNIOR? I will give you a hint – he is going to get himself killed. I am not sure Garcia will live to see week two of this season and if he does, he will wish he didn’t have to see week one. Look for a shutout from the Ravens. Oh yeah and get ready for the Kyle Boller era to begin. Just kidding. But the Ravens will easily win and cover.

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