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JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
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Jiggy's 2006 Football Picks Season Record
Wins: 7 | Losses: 9 | Ties:
NFL Free Picks Winning Percentage: 44%
Record updated by Tuesday
Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
For those of you new to this football betting picks column, our expert NFL football handicapper Jiggy is coming off a money making 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006 NFL season.posting a winning record on both his NFL football picks and NFL Lock of the Week against the spread. Each week during the NFL season Jiggy will share his free winning NFL football picks as well as his entertaining take on the current happenings of the NFL.
NFL Week 4 Free Picks & Column
I know how T.O. feels. I too wanted to commit suicide after the games this weekend. In a very scientific study that I perform each week (read a football pool that I run) I learned that last week was the second hardest week to pick games against the spread dating back to the beginning of the 2005 season. That isn’t an excuse, but rather an observation.
This was a week of odd news stories. There seems to be this pattern, a news story breaks and then later we learn it was either totally false, slightly misreported or completely covered up and re-spun. This was true of the Terrell Owens story (in case you missed it, the world was taken over for 12 hours whilst we believed that Terrell had finally tried the ultimate publicity stunt and tried to kill himself – I would link to the article, but the only way you could have missed this is if you don’t have a computer – this is ironic and funny because if you are reading this column then you probably have one – but again, jokes aren’t funny if they have to be explained, so please disregard the aforementioned analysis – this parenthetical keeps getting funnier (and deeper – if you catch my meaning)) and it appears to be true of the Matt Leinart story (this story is only important to Arizona Cardinal fans and people who have either Matt Leinart or Kurt Warner on their fantasy teams, so to the nineteen of you, read on), for those of you who missed this one, Denny Green was reported to have named Matt Leinart the starting QB for ‘Zona’s next game and then on Wednesday he recanted.
What is interesting about both of these stories is how plausible they both were. The T.O. story sounded truer to me than the alternative (‘real’ story) and Denny Green would do well to go with his gut. Let’s unpack them a little further.
The first things we hear about T.O. is that he took 35 pain pills, and then after his publicist called 911 and tried to rip more pills out of his mouth, he told the police that he had in fact tried to ‘harm himself.’ Then on ESPN radio I hear that T.O.’s girlfriend broke up with him over the weekend. This all made some sense. The saga of T.O. is filled with heartache, mania and an ever-increasing need for the spotlight. One could imagine that after he was hated in Philly and then taken in by Dallas, only to be hampered by an injury that no one believed he would be distraught. Here is a guy that seems to need ‘all eyes on him’ at all times. When he had a hammy (apparently trainer speak for having an injured hamstring) he couldn’t really get too much positive attention. Then he had one good game in a loss and then a really terrible game (statistically) in the Big D’s win. He then had a hand injury (always troubling for chronic masturbators and pro wide receivers alike) and he was being forgotten in the Dallas passing game. (This is not unlike forgetting condoms to the 7th grade ice cream social – true there is a chance you’ll need them, but in the end, the evening is really more about hand jobs than it is about sex). His ego was getting destroyed. And if you followed his antics with Philly (in my opinion, they should have just paid him more) he was a true psychopath. So I when I first heard the news, it made sense to me.
The more refined story with T.O. was that after work he came home, had a ‘doctor’ come over and give him a massage on his own personal training table and then he enjoyed 35 Vicodin pills. He then waited for his ‘publicist’ to sashay on over. When she arrived, she saw an empty pill bottle and T.O. was unresponsive – she called 911. (A top-notch ‘publicist’ would have slipped in to something a little less comfortable and waited for T.O. to arise – pun intended.) To me, this sounds like a perfectly dreamy evening. Of course my publicist would look like Julia Bond and my Doctor could be any member of the Texas Tech Swim Team. And I would add some Gentleman Jack or some 10 year Tawny to the Vicodin, you know, to take the whole narco edge off the stuff and also allow for a little refinement.
And I am not sure how many of you frequent the many massage parlors in these proud United States. But let me tell you, after a couple of drinks and a great massage (con happy ending) I am more than unresponsive, I am out for the night (sometimes two). I am not sure this was T.O. being suicidal, he just may have overscheduled. This would also jibe with the report that he had recently been shit-canned (or he could have been the shit-canner) by his girlfriend. The common response is to immediately schedule mass amounts of debauchery (sometimes too much). So this story also makes some sense.
 The real story (or last story) is that T.O. had his massage/therapy, took two Vicodin and his supplements and fell asleep on his training table. After having played high school football in the San Fernando Valley (where the heat index and smog contents of the air made doing anything outdoors dangerous) and practiced there, I was always close to non-responsive after practice. The feckless Lt. Rat was often throwing up, so I suppose being non-responsive was better than some of the alternatives. Now I imagine that pro football practice in Dallas in the late summer is far worse and more tiring than anything I have had to endure, now add the pain killers, some ‘supplements’ [editorial note, if any of those supplements are flaxseed oil, then the controversy will be far more exciting than if they aren’t – see Barry Bonds] and a massage. I would think that four Jolt Colas, a vial of cocaine and Roseanne Barr trying to give you a reach around (con strap-on) wouldn’t be able to wake someone up given the day T.O. had had. Now his publicists comes over and sees the empty bottle of Vicodin on his table (he had put the remainder in his drawer) and T.O. seems groggy. She then calls 911 and he is taken to the hospital.
 The final story is the least believable, but hey, it is the truth (whatever that means). I would love to find out a couple of things. First, why didn’t the publicist do a little more research before she called 911? Why didn’t she manage the cops and paramedics better? Why didn’t she manage the initial story better? (especially if she was with T.O. the entire time.) And finally, probably the most interesting question about Kim Etheredge (and maybe the most damning) is why isn’t she hotter?
Obviously, the real question here is whether or not T.O. will play this weekend and what it means for the line on the Dallas game. I am of the mind that few NFL receivers are difference makers for their teams. Sure, it is better to roll out Chad Johnson, TJ Whoseyourmamma and Chris Henry that it is to start Sammy Parker, Eddie Kennison (seriously, wasn’t this guy drafted in 1947?) and Dante Hall (shouldn’t this be D’ante or Da’nte or Dan’te or Dant’e or finally, Dante’?) but in the end I think the main delta between winning and losing is not the YAC yards, but the YBC (yards before the catch). The point is that Dallas is going to do virtually as well with Terry Glenn out there as with T.O. out there. So let’s stop worrying about this and let’s get to thinking about how T.O. can get a better looking publicist.
 Denny Green, I am talking to you. Get rid of Kurt Warner. Bench him. He is just like Trent Dilfer, a guy who loves Jesus and makes for a great shaper of young QB minds. You are 1-2 (barely beating the Niners shouldn’t really count) and you are about to lose to Atlanta and Chicago (isn’t it a shame that we all don’t have the equivalent of Herm Edwards with Damon Huard on our work schedules? Can you imagine how great it would be to have three weeks in your work life (the NFL season is about 1/3rd of the year, so one week for them is the same as three weeks for us working stiffs) when you could totally phone it in and still get the win? So Denny, you will be 2-4 and you will already be slightly out of contention – this isn’t your year. Go ahead, let Matty Leinart start. He is the future of your franchise and Kurt Warner (whose wife has the same haircut he does – not that we should let that bias our judgment) isn’t. The time is now.
Jiggy took it on the chin last week (not in the pornstar sense of semen splatter, but in the boxing sense of a stiff punch) with a 1-3 week. I am distraught that our friends, the Carolina Panthers let their panties getting bunched in their collective vaginas couldn’t muster an extra couple of points to cover. But the beatings that New England took and Atlanta took were just unbearable.
Interesting observations from the third week.
Minny’s defense was better than expected and their offense proved that Chicago’s defense is awesome.
Cincy’s performance was somewhat expected. Jiggy knew that Pittsburgh wouldn’t be dominant this year. This has much to do with the randomness of football. Every single play has millions of variables in it. One could imagine that every blade of grass under every cleat has some small effect on the outcome of the play. One needs to have a sufficient number of small things go right for a team to win. When two teams of relatively equal strength, preparation and desire meet, the game can hinge on a few of these seemingly absurdly little things. As such, the Steelers out performed a little last year (though I am still a Big Ben supporter) and this year they will still be a good team, but Cincy is loaded. Anyway, this was a come out game for Carson et al.
Green Bay has a pulse – alert your local clergyman (or clergywoman) that we may have a new miracle to pontificate about.
Miami squeaked by the Titans, at home. Miami is truly terrible. WOW.
Steve McNair was exposed this week. Baltimore just doesn’t have the O.
Never, ever, never, ever take an east coast team that is coming off of a big win that then must travel all the way across the country to play against someone that looks like Craig Stadler. This is a nice coming out party for the Seahawks – but come on, Plex looked like he was throwing the game. Literally.
On to the free NFL picks…
Alex Smith (SF) at Damon Huard (KC)– SF+7
The 9ers had a rough showing last week. But let’s take out the two freak plays. First, the flea flicker to begin the game. Is this high school? Was Donovan in the backyard before thanksgiving? Who calls that garbage? (The more salient question is ‘who falls for that garbage and I guess the answer is the Niners.) The theme this season is that the Niners aren’t that bad (2-1 ATS) and we know that Herm Edwards is bad. The great news is that his starting QB is also bad. This one looks like a great time to bet the money line (currently going off at +260). I will take the money line and then bet two-three times as much on the following Teaser, Niners +13 and Under 46.5. This sounds like some free money! Take the Niners and the points and wish Herm well.
Jax (Jax) at Mark Brunell (Was) – Jax -3
Washington, who is 1-2 with their only win coming against the Texans, hosts the very, very angry Jaguars. Look for the Jags defense to some very naughty things to the ineffective Redskin offense. And then the Jags will methodically take care of some business on O. Take the Jags and give the points.
Matt Hassleback Sans Shaun (Sea) at Rex Grossman/Kyle Orton (Chi) – Chi -3.5
 Seattle is going to be all partied out after their ass whipping of NYGs. Chicago, at home, with a dominant defense, struggling (but improving running game) wins this one in a blow out. I love taking Chicago at home and giving less than four points.
Dem Bolts (SD) at Air Mcnair (Bal) – SD -2.5
 Wow. I am not sure Baltimore will get in to SD territory (except with a defensive score/big play). The Charger defense is excellent and now they are also well rested (coming off of a byre week). The Ravens, ineptly led by McNair are coming off of an emotional win at Cleveland. Let me write that again so it sinks in. The Ravens have just come from an emotional (and come from behind) win against the Brownies. This one is going to look like child abuse. Call child protective services and take the Bolts.
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