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JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
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Jiggy's 2006 Football Picks Season Record
Wins: 9 | Losses: 13 | Ties 2:
NFL Free Picks Winning Percentage: 41%
Record updated by Tuesday
Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
For those of you new to this football betting picks column, our expert NFL football handicapper Jiggy is coming off a money making 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006 NFL season.posting a winning record on both his NFL football picks and NFL Lock of the Week against the spread. Each week during the NFL season Jiggy will share his free winning NFL football picks as well as his entertaining take on the current happenings of the NFL.
NFL Week 6 Free Picks & Column
In my family the number six has special significance. It is the number of reflection. It is the number of coming of age and it is the number of destiny.
The true magic behind the number six is that it represents one’s second threesome (3+3 or 2 x 3). As we all know, the first threesome is often subpar. [Editorial note: subpar in the same way winning $10 million is subpar when you could have won $12 million – subpar in the same way as when you come home with the DVDs your wife wants to see and the video store accidentally put in a the newest Pirates movie with Carmen Luvana, Teagan Presley and Jesse Jane instead of Pirates of the Carribean. But the video store didn’t swap out ‘Maid in Manhattan’ with ‘Maid to Order.’ You get the point.] There are a host of reasons for the subparity (should be a word). During the initial threesome one is concerned with etiquette, one is concerned with proper boundaries, one is concerned about where to plop the precious money shot. (For one is never sure if the first threesome will be the last threesome.) All of this tension results in a great event, but it isn’t the life altering soiree that it could (and should) be.
The life altering event is often the second threesome. That is when you can relax. You now feel confident that this may be a common occurrence and you can take some risks. Maybe your girlfriend doesn’t want to be spit on, called a whore and asked to finger the anus of Melanie, the prostitute hired for the event. But this time you have the cojones to ask. And in my deep experience, often one’s girlfriend does want to do all of those things. She is often held back by her own social/moral code, the desire to seem ladylike to her boyfriend (I would argue that there are few more ladylike things than having spittle dripping from ones chin whilst one rams a digit in the pooper of a call girl – but not everyone necessarily holds my same values – I mean some people thing wagering on sports is the devils work. Tomato tomahtoe) or maybe she is just worried because it is past her ten o’clock curfew and she has a really important algebra test tomorrow. The point is that one feels comfortable going for the gusto. And that feeling is what makes the event magical.
So to honor the sixth week of the season, I am going to go back to Jiggy’s preseason expectations and expound upon them further.
 Assertion One: When will the Reggie Bush façade crumble?
Being touted as the second coming of Gayle Sayers is a large burden for anyone to shoulder. Poor Reggie. In Gayle Sayers’ rookie season he had the following stats:
Rushing – 867 yards on 166 carries for 14 touchdowns and an average of 5.2/rush.
Receiving – 507 yards on 29 catches for 6 touchdowns and an average of 17.5/catch
Returns (kickoff) – 660 yards on 21 returns for 1 touchdown and an average of 31.4/return
Returns (punt) – 391 yards on 27 returns for 2 touchdowns and an average of 14.5/return
Keep in mind, this is for a full 14 game season. (I didn’t want to note that he also had 111 yards passing and one td pass). So let’s take all of those stats down to a per game and then extrapolate what they would have been over Reggie’s 5 games. Please see the chart below.
Of the 16 statistics cited in this chart, Reggie has outdone Mr. Sayers on four occasions, or about 25% of the time. Not too shabby. What we can learn from this is that right now, Reggie isn’t living up to his own preseason hype. However, Reggie has been improving. And in an uncharacteristic move, I will say that Jiggy was a little hard on Reggie at the beginning of the year. Reggie has contributed to the Saints surprising resurgence this year. Reggie single-handedly (as much as one person on a 53 man roster can do anything by himself) won the game for them with his electrifying touch down return. In short, I think it is too early to judge whether Reggie is going to be great or not. His on-the-field numbers aren’t fantastic but it seems that he has done wonders for the Saints. I can’t count the number of 25 jerseys in the stands when the Aint’s play and I have to imagine that the sellouts this season are not for Drew Brees and his arthritic shoulder. So I am going to give Jiggy a draw on this one.
Assertion Two: How long before the Herm Edwards magic rubs off on KC?
This is a trainwreck. Herm Edwards has stolen one big win from the Niners and he has managed to beat Arizona. Other than that, things look tragic in old KC. With games against Pitt, SD, Seattle, St. Louie and Miami for the next five weeks, it is more than conceivable; it is likely that KC doesn’t win another game until they face Oakland in mid November. I have railed against Herm for years and I still don’t understand why he is a pro coach. As a head coach, he is now 43-46. Sounds like a high profile hire to me. Get him out of here. He can’t get the job done. Score this one for Jiggy.
 Assertion Three: When does Matty Leinart take over and show that he should have been the first QB taken in the draft?
Well, Matt finally has the helm. It was only a matter of time. In my mind, he has already shown that he gives the Birds a better chance of winning than does Kurt Warner. His QB rating for the season is a whopping 80.4 (not bad compared to Alex Smith’s rookie year where he hung a 40.8). And in his last game it was a respectable 91.7. Let’s compare that to Vince Young’s (qb rating of 46.6 and a nice low last week of 34.4 – one has to imagine that Vince is getting worse – week 2 – 70.0, week 4 – 47.3 and week 5 – 34.4). There is no way, NO WAY, the Titans should have let Matty slip by when they took Vince Young. Vince will NEVER be a consistent qb in the NFL. And Cutler… Cutler… Anyone… Cutler. Well, he looked good in the preseason, but he is playing behind the ever patient and ever capable Jake ‘handlebar rides’ Plummer. So we shall see on Jay. But score another one for Jiggy.
Assertion Four: How will Peyton handle being the third best qb in the family (Archie has to be number one)?
 
Well it looks like Jiggy was right again. Eli is dominating Peyton in almost every category (except arguably the most important one, wins – but that might make this argument even stronger – if the schedule is tougher for the G-men and the supporting cast is weaker, it makes Eli’s achievements all the more impressive). Let’s just see here, QB rating – Eli, Completions/game – Eli, Completion percentage – Eli, yards/game – Eli, yards/attempt – Eli, tds – Eli, tds/game – Eli but Peyton does seem to be better about controlling the ball – fewer interceptions and fewer fumbles. But it looks like el tiempo de Eli is upon us. Editorial Note: Eli is still a class A douche bag. Everytime we mention Eli we have to remind the world that he wouldn’t come and play for the Chargers because he thought he was too good for them. Phil Rivers did go play for them and he has a legitimate Superbowl shot this year. Eli is 2-2 and struggling. If I were a young QB I would rather have LT than Tiki, I would rather have Antonio Gates than Jeremy Shockey and I would rather have the SD defense than the NYG defense. Bad move Eli, bad move.
 Assertion Five: Who will be blamed for the downfall of the Steelers?
Yesterday, on October 12th, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette ran an article entitled, “What is Wrong with the Steelers. I wonder if old Ed Bouchette was reading Jiggy and decided to steal some of my gem-like material. The short story is that we all (the bright bulbs) knew the Steelers couldn’t have another year like last year. When a team is 1-3 there is enough blame to go around. I think the main culprit in all of this, and one that is not going to be cited, is simply the reversion to the mean. The Steelers vastly outperformed last year. They got all the breaks and took advantage of many of them. Let us not forget the tackle that Big Ben made to get them in to the superbowl. That was a ridiculous stroke of good luck. Little lucky breaks like that happened to them the entire second half of last year. That just couldn’t continue. Big Ben is still a great QB (even if he is having a little trouble reacclimating) the defense is still solid and Wee Willie hasn’t gotten hurt yet. The season isn’t over for Terrible Towels. This isn’t going to be a superbowl year for them, but they can still rally and put up a nice record. So we have to give this one to Jiggy.
Jiggy was 4-0-1 with his preseason predictions. We will have to check in again during the 12th week of the season. The number 12 is especially magical because it is the fourth threesome (3+3+3+3) or after the second threesome is the first sixsome (3+3+6). So we shall anxiously await the next update.
Interesting observations from the fifth week.
Has Rex Grossman actually gotten it all together? Hard to say, but the Bears look ferocious. I still think the Chargers are the best team in the NFL right now, but one cannot give short shrift to the Monsters of the Midway.
Can anyone blow a game quite the way the Detroit Lions can?
New Orleans needed some voodoo from Reggie to beat the pathetic Bucs. But Jiggy did warn y’all about Gradkowski.
Favre is still careless and probably regrets his decision not to retire. I think we all regret that decision.
The Jax are serious.
Bledsoe’s clock is running down. Time to shit or get off the pot Drew.
Finally, we can all start talking about how over-hyped Steve McNair was. He reminds me of Herm Edwards in that he doesn’t do that well, but everyone can’t wait to stand in line to nibble on his willy.
On to the free NFL picks…
Carson (Cincy) at Gradkowski (TB)– Cincy -5.5
Cincy has an extremely stout defense that is ball hawkin’. Cincy also has one of the most potent offenses we’ve seen in quite some time. Rudi loves to run, Carson loves to throw and Chad loves to look like a tool and make ESPN ads. Tampa is not at peace with their inner child. Take the Cats and give the points.
Westbrook (Phi) at Reggie (NO) – Philly -3.5
I know I was touting Reggie earlier in this column, but I am afraid that even if he were Gayle Sayers I would still take the Eagles here. Philly is a complete team (if you forget the fact that they have a lousy receiving corps and are weak at tailback) and the Saints are starting to lose their Katrina momentum. Take Donovan and give the measly 3.5.
Joey Harrington (Mia) at J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets (NYJ) – NYJ -3
Joey Harrington will always be that slightly effeminate duck who played piano before their bowl game. He will never be a winning NFL QB. Take the Jets and give the points.
Julius Peppers (Car) at Ray Ray (Balt) – Car +3
The defense of the Panthers is just too much for the antiquated Jamal Lewis and the rickety, poor decision making McNair. (Oh and a trivia question can anyone name a single starting wide receiver on the Ravens? I can’t either.) The Panthers are finally finding their midseason form. This one should be a blow out. Take the Cats and the points.
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