|
|
JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
|
Independently ranked the number one NFL picking site in 2007 (by BigGuy Sports Network)
Jiggy's 2008 Football Picks Season Record
Wins: 22 | Losses: 21 | Ties 1:
NFL Free Picks Winning Percentage: 51%
Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
For those of you new to this football betting picks column, our expert NFL football handicapper Jiggy has had a money making 2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, and 2007-2008 NFL season (where he picked over 60% correctly). Besides one down year (2006-07) Jiggy has posted a winning record on both his NFL football free picks and NFL Lock of the Week against the spread. Each week during the NFL season Jiggy will share his free winning NFL football picks as well as his entertaining take on the current happenings of the NFL.
2008 FREE NFL PICKS WEEK 11
The Flu Bug…
What with kwanza, hannukah and the hookers and blow, I should have known that I would get sick. And now I am.
Trust me, it makes writing harder than you think.
So I will just give all of you an idea of how sick and deranged I have become. I think Herm Edwards actually made a nice call. Many people have second guessed his attempt to go for two to win the game this week. I want to analyze why it was the right call.
The Chefs who have been as disgusting as that stripper, you all know her, she is well past her prime, but still shows up at the club. It is rough. Much of their problem is their awful coach and then the rest of their problem is lack of talent. Seems like an insurmountable set of circumstances, but at least they will get another high draft choice and squander another great college player’s chances of playing in the NFL playoffs.
So the situation: The Chefs have actually managed to lead for much of the game against the San Diego Chargers (a team sinking to mediocrity as Jiggy mentioned in a column the probable retirement of LT at the end of this season). And then Phil Rivers (a fantasy stud who makes many terrible plays on the field) took the lead back after a second half rally.
The plucky Chefs took the ball down the field and with the help of some questionable officiating came within and extra point of tying the game. But Herr Doktor Herm would not settle for a tie and a trip in to overtime. He went for the win right then, right there. He decided to go for two and as you all know (and was probably expected) the Chefs lost.
But here is the point. The season was already officially over for the Chefs. 1-7 or 1-8 or 2-7… what is the big difference? It wasn’t about the playoffs or about ‘contending.’ It was about potentially getting a win and preventing the chance of injury to his players.
Firstly (and simply) it shortens the game. It prevents injury and agitates the NFL who probably sold advertising for overtime. And the nine people who were probably watching the game needed to be advertised to. Trying for two insures that the game ends on that play – fewer injuries and Herm can get home in time to go running or go to church or do whatever herm Edwards would do on average Sunday night (except he should probably be on monster.com or some other job board – I am just saying.)
But here are the facts. The Chargers are more talented that the Chefs at every position. The Bolts have better coaches (also probably at every position). If they played this game 100 times, the Chargers would blow out the Chefs like 99 times. Anyway. Here is the point.
If you are playing poker against a player who is significantly better than you, you should bet very big on a few hands. This is because over time the better player’s skills and knowledge will win out. But on any given hand, you may get lucky or just have better cards. Herm probably would have no idea what I was talking about if I explained this to him, but he made the right call.
On any one play in football there is a significant amount of uncertainty about outcomes. Take for instance the Jets v. NE game from last night. In overtime, the Pats had the Jets at like 3rd and 17 from the Jets 20. If you gave me that situation (and a point spread of 2.5 or less) I would take the Patriots all day long and twice on Sunday. As you all know, Brett Favre pulled one out and drove the JETS on to win. This displays the randomness of one play.
Similarly, the Chefs didn’t have to be better than the Chargers to win the game, they just had to better/luckier on that one two-point conversion. If the game went in to overtime, there would be significantly more plays – more chances for the superior athletes and superior coaching of the Dolts to take control. So herm, great call. I think it may be your first, so go on out and celebrate. And remember, rose goes in the front big guy.
JIGGY'S FREE NFL PICKS
Show me your tits (NO) @ Hermie the wonder statistician (KC) – NO -5.5
The Chefs blew their proverbial load last week. Take the Saints.
Ray Ray Flacco-stein (bal) @ Eli Eli Oh (nyg) – NYG -7
The defense is going to be far too much for the lowly Ravens to handle. Look for a blow out at home.
Kerry Collins (tenny) @ Duke Garrard (jax) – Tenny -3
I feel like such a horse’s ass picking the titans. But there are rules and whether or not we like it, we have to obey those rules. And those rules dictate that you don’t mess with a streak. If a player thinks he’s winning because he’s getting laid or not getting laid or because he is wearing women’s underwear, then he is. So take the Titans until they stop winning.
Az @ Sea – AZ -3
The Seachickens just aren’t that good. (with or without Hassleback).
Many of my fans ask me where I wager. I have a gambling problem so I bet on everything from the ponies to how long (in inches) my excrement is. But I have been a proud customer to superbook.com for some time. They have good lines, great promotions, many betting options and most importantly, I get my money from them on time. They have signed a deal with Wagercom.com. So if you are looking for an online book, try them out. They are Jiggy tested and Jiggy approved.
|
To sign up to receive the Wagercom.com Newsletter w/ Jiggy's Free Picks click here.
|
Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
|
