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JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
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Independently ranked the number one NFL picking site in 2007 (by BigGuy Sports Network)
Jiggy's 2009 Football Picks Season Record
Wins: 11 | Losses: 9 | Ties 0:
NFL Free Picks Winning Percentage: 55%
Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
For those of you new to this football betting picks column, our expert NFL football handicapper Jiggy has had a money making 2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, and 2007-2008 NFL season, posting a winning record on both his NFL football free picks and NFL Lock of the Week against the spread. Each week during the NFL season Jiggy will share his free winning NFL football picks as well as his entertaining take on the current happenings of the NFL.
FREE NFL PICKS - WEEK FIVE
The Season Continues…
Dear Michael Crabtree,
You are an idiot. I don’t like you or your style.
Jiggy (oh no he didn’t just go third person in the first three lines of this column – oh yeah, he did (pronounced ‘dit’)) loves him some money (props for the double reflexive) and I understand that it is what makes the world go round. (Another aside – the booze prevents me from thinking clearly for more than one sentence - I know that many of you will say that love, or happiness or health are actually far more valuable things and that these nebulous concepts are what make the world go round. Jiggy is nothing if not cynical – cold, calculating and cynical, and thus he would claim that all of those things can be purchased with greenbacks. So by reducing the equation we get back to money = everything. If this bothers you, please re-read some economics texts and then email your concerns to goeffyourself@iamstupid.com.)
So, Mike (can I call you mike?) I understand that you wanted to maximize your value. But I think you made a terrible miscalculation. I think that your position actually diminished your earning potential.
Let’s throw out the fact that you’ve missed four game checks – though it likely cost you close to $750,000. You are being pennywise and pound foolish – you are seeing the trees, but not the forest. The average NFL career (per the NFL Players Association) is 3.5 years. If you are on the 49ers that will likely mean on average 16.5 games per year (let’s assume that they make the playoffs twice and lose in the first game) or a career of 57.75 games. That means that those four (I know we could argue that one’s career begins when they play their first game – but we are working with averages here, so go with me) games represent 7% of your playing career. Not something to sneeze at. (Or more formally not something at which one should sneeze – lord knows that Jiggy doesn’t like to end anything with a preposition. Or was it proposition? Whore humor.) The point is that your time to earn big money is finite. Yes, it has much to do with how many times you put yourself in harm’s way (possibility of injury) but it also has to do with the only undefeated athlete in the world and that is Father Time. Whether you see it/feel it/believe it, you skills are diminishing every day. If you want to perform at the highest level, you want to work as much as possible whilst you are young and your physical prowess can make up for lack of wiliness or preparation. This is especially true if you want your stats to match up to the greats.
But the silliest part of all is that your little stunt has arguably hurt your earnings far more than you probably have calculated. It has done so in two large ways. The way that your next contract will be more lucrative (assuming you play longer than the average in the NFL – you signed a six year deal that is voidable to five – both longer than the average career) is that you will put up eye-popping stats. Your hold out has cost you almost one full season. You will not even play until week six of the season (you’ve missed 29% of your first year) and when you do play, you will not be able to be a big part of the offense because you just don’t know what you are doing. But you have likely hurt yourself in another way, you’ve diminished yourself in the eyes of your teammates. They all claim that they don’t care and that they can separate the contract from the player. But everyone one of them has mentioned how hard they (as a team) have been working since the summer. And you have been watching TV. They aren’t going to like or respect you (unless you come in and work your diva ass off). This will translate (maybe slightly) in to fewer times where you are targeted on a play and fewer times that you are blocked for when you do catch a ball. Contracts don’t go up for mid-tier players.
And the second way is that your stunt has been distasteful in the eyes of the fans. During a recession, it looks bad to be offered $16-17 million in guaranteed money – the right amount based on where you were drafted – and turn it down for more. And here is the kicker, of the top 25 highest paid athletes in the USA (only one of which is a football player – Peyton Manning - http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/specials/fortunate50/2009/index.html) the average total compensation is $30 million per year – but that is 33% from endorsements. But Wheaties and GM don’t want a money hungry prima donna hawking their wares. So your stunt (assuming it isn’t erased by hard work and great play) has cost you a third of your earnings. Another way of looking at this is that your holdout should have netted you 33% more than the Niner’s initial offer to make you whole. And if my calculations are correct (and they rarely are) you managed to boost your guaranteed money by less than $1 million (from $16 to 17). That doesn’t seem like 33% to me of a contract worth up to $40 million – in fact it looks more like 2.5%. So that was a big loss for you.
 And finally… and this is going to be a little tough for you to understand, but try. Jiggy doesn’t know what it is like to be poor – he has been hustling since he was a tiny handicapper. From reading about you, I don’t think you do either – I believe you were always considered ‘middle class.’ But here is what I have found and what you will too. Once you have a certain amount of money, having more of it doesn’t make you any happier. Maslow told us that we have a graduated set of needs. Once we assuage one plateau of needs, we move on to the next. What he is saying is that fulfilling all of your current needs does not make you needless (punny), it makes you hungry to fulfill new wants. And what is crafty about us humans is that after the physical needs are met (financially possible) we then move on to needs that aren’t necessarily purchasable. For example, all the money in the world will not buy the respect of your teammates or the adoration of fans. Saying this another way, the utility gained from more money reaches an upper bound and then, it actually starts reducing utility (or happiness). So arguing and bitching for more money than you could likely use or need will not make you any happier.
I have ranted long enough. I do hope that you come in to the NFL and prove me wrong. I hope that you work your tail off and become a great star. I hope your teammates accept you and that Coach Sing treats you with love. I am sure you have the skills to be great and admired – but I suspect that you won’t have the work ethic or the drive. So have fun with your millions. You are still just a prima donna chump to me (and to many, many fans).
-Jig
FREE NFL PICKS:
Gisele (NE) @ Kyle (Den) – NE -3
Jiggy occasionally makes a judgment or decision and then no matter how often reality reveals that it isn’t true, Jig continues to stick with it. That decision this year is that the Broncos aren’t that good. So give me Hoodie and the crew coming to freezing Mile High (blah blah blah Invesco) and let’s see the Pats do what they do.
Peyton Loves Dudes (Indy) @ Kerry Loves them too (Tenny)– Indy -3.5
Come on people. I know that no one likes the Colts, but they are winning and the Titans cannot seem to right their ship. As such, I will bet on the Colts and hold my nose.
Dirty, Dirty Sanchez (NYJ) @ Tha Fish (Mia) – NYJ -1.5
If the Jets are going to compete this year (and I think they will) they need to be able to bounce back from tough defeats. Last week was a shit storm for Gang Green. This week they will show their anger by slaying the fish.
Cedric Benson (cincy) @ Ray Rice (Bal) – Cincy +8.5
Dear Benagls, I am so sorry I talked trash about you. Now go and beat the Ravens (or lose by less than 9.
Many of my fans ask me where I wager. I have a gambling problem so I bet on everything from the ponies to how long (in inches) my excrement is. But I have been a proud customer to superbook.com for some time. They have good lines, great promotions, many betting options and most importantly, I get my money from them on time. They have signed a deal with Wagercom.com. So if you are looking for an online book, try them out. They are Jiggy tested and Jiggy approved.
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