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JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
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Jiggy's 2006 Football Picks Season Record
Wins: 29 | Losses: 38 | Ties 3:
NFL Free Picks Winning Percentage: 43%
Record updated by Tuesday
Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
For those of you new to this football betting picks column, our expert NFL football handicapper Jiggy is coming off a money making 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006 NFL season.posting a winning record on both his NFL football picks and NFL Lock of the Week against the spread. Each week during the NFL season Jiggy will share his free winning NFL football picks as well as his entertaining take on the current happenings of the NFL.
NFL SuperBowl Free Picks & Column
The Stupid Bowl
Ahh, it is finally here. This is a very special time for true gamblers. The world rejoices in the spreaditude of the Big Game – but the reality is that for gamblers it offers little excitement. We only have one game to pick and there is far too much hype surrounding it.
Jiggy will however breakdown the match ups and give his statistical breakdown…
Quarterback – Advantage Colts
This, and it pains me to say it, is a whitewash. Peyton Manning may or may not be the best QB in the NFL. (I would argue that Ben Roethlisberger will have more rings than Peyton in the end and I would rather have Tom Brady at the helm for me.) But he is the best quarterback in this game by a healthy margin. (Editorial Crow Eating – I also said that Peyton would fold under pressure - he performed excellently in the game against the Pats and he should be applauded for it – but that does not make him any less of a child molester.) Rex Grossman, though called the best pure passer he’d ever seen by Steve Spurrier (a man not unfamiliar with the art of quarter backing) is woefully overmatched here. In fact, if the spread for this game was only on QB stats, I would think Peyton would be favored by 22 (I am not kidding). This category falls ever so squarely in the camp of the Colts.
Running Back – Advantage Bears
Thomas Jones is a seriously powerful and angry man. He is universally loved by his teammates and if it were just TJ versus the two headed monster of Dr. Rhodes and Joey Addai, I would probably say that the advantage fell gently to the Bears. But now, add in Ricky Dos (as in the second coming of Ricky Williams) in the form of Cedric Benson and this becomes a landslide for the Bears. TJ and CB are arguably the best running duo in the NFL (LT and Michael Turner also come to mind as do Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney – but my money is on the Bear’s gruesome twosome). Addai will develop in to a good, if not great back and Rhodes can be shifty, but they are just amateurs in a man’s game. If one also throws in the fact that the Colts have a seriously under-sized defensive line and one can imagine that the Bears will be able to waltz down the field virtually unchallenged. This (and the defense) may define this superbowl.
Wide Receivers – Advantage Colts
I think Wide Outs are generally over valued in the NFL. The difference between T.O. and Eric Parker just isn’t that great. Success of any pass play depends on far too many factors. There is the snap, the O-line, the qb, the coverage and the weather. In the end, only a small portion of the glory for a successful pass play should fall to the receiver. But that said, the Colts receiving corps is excellent. They have knowledge, size, speed (not too much speed), hands and experience. Whereas, the Bears have a shaky Berrian and an aging Mushin. The Colts win this match up.
Defense – Advantage Bears
By almost any metric that you choose, the Bears dominate this category. The Bears are top five in yards allowed, points allowed, turnovers… This is going to be the story of the game. Baltimore held the vaunted Colts to 15 and if they had any offense, they would have won that game. Baltimore’s defense is extremely stout, but imagine how that game would have been different if the Ravens had the running game of the Bears. The Ravens defense would have been on the field for a shorter time and been better. The Colts have not faced a defense quite like the Bears before and I think it will get to Peyton and cause havoc for the Colts offense.
Special Teams – Advantage Bears
I have forty two words for my feckless readers. Devin Hester.
Now the statistical analysis
If you read Jiggy’s column two years ago, you would know that the nature of the Super Bowl has changed with the changes in free agency and the salary cap. There is far more parity in the NFL these days. First let’s look at our two teams. I love the end of the season because we have a much larger data set from which to draw conclusions.
The Colts score 26.5 points per game, the Bears score 27.4. The Colts give up 21.5 and the Bears only give up 16.1. The Bears typically score about 11 more points than their opposition and the Colts only score 5 more. All of these factors point toward a Bear victory. One must remember that the Bears do play the Packers, Vikings and Lions twice and the Niners once – that can seriously skew your data. But over a long season, all of this is somewhat washed away – I like the Bears.
Now let’s take a look at Super Bowls. In the last fifteen years, when there was a spread of 6.9 or greater, the favorite covered only 36.4% of the time. This also points toward taking the Bears. (click her to view the spreadsheet.)
Stupid Interjection – if one remembers the old adage offense wins games, but defense wins championships, then you also must take the Bears.
Jiggy is taking the Bears, and Jiggy is taking the moneyline on the Bears. I love getting +210 with the better defense, better running game and better special teams.
And finally, the over under; Jiggy is all over the under. Over the 37 games that these two teams have played, they have gone over 48 only 40% of the time – if you tease the Bears with the under (Bears +13 and under 54) you almost can’t lose. These two teams have only gone over 54 27% of the time.
My dear fans, it has been a rocky season and we all would have liked to have won more. But the right thing to do is the following. Mortgage the house, divest the mutual funds, sell the daughter in to slavery, pawn the wife’s jewelry and make the following bets. (Assume you get $1 million from all of your scrounging) $350,000 on the Bears +7, 350,000 on the Teaser of Bears +7, Under 54, $150,000 on the under and $150,000 on the Bears +210 (no points).
All of that should leave you with a little change in your pocket.
Remember fans, we are only one bet away from a winning streak.
Have a great off season. And Go Niners.
Many of my fans ask me where I wager. I have a gambling problem so I bet on everything from the ponies to how long (in inches) my excrement is. But I have been a proud customer to superbook.com for some time. They have good lines, great promotions, many betting options and most importantly, I get my money from them on time. They have signed a deal with Wagercom.com. So if you are looking for an online book, try them out. They are Jiggy tested and Jiggy approved.
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