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JIGGY'S FREE NFL FOOTBALL PICKS
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Jiggy's Football Picks Season Record
Wins: 41 | Losses: 31 | Ties: 2
NFL Free Picks Winning Percentage: 57%
Record updated Mondays
Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
For those of you new to this football betting picks column, our expert NFL football handicapper Jiggy is coming off a money making 2003-20004 and 2004-2005 NFL season.posting a winning record on both his NFL football picks and NFL Lock of the Week against the spread. Each week during the NFL season Jiggy will share his free winning NFL football picks as well as his entertaining take on the current happenings of the NFL. Here are the free nfl football picks for the Superbowl:
NFL Superbowl Football Picks
Look Boss, the Superbowl, the Superbowl.
That’s right Tattoo, it is the Superbowl. So my Herve Villechaize impersonation needs work.
I have a couple of special things for all of my loyal readers today. First, I have included a handy spread sheet to break down the super bowl lines, overs, unders and the like. It is downloadable if you have Excel. CLICK HERE FOR JIGGY's SUPERBOWL SPREAD SHEET. There is also a snapshot of it at the end of this article. When using the file, only fiddle with the blue numbers to do your analysis, otherwise it may not work right.
But before I get going with the Super Bowl picks, I wanted to take our attention away from the pro game and languish (if we could) in the ranks of college. As many of you have read, I took the time to do a little ‘dr. phil’ with Ricky Williams (http://www.wagercom.com/fantasy_advice.html) now I want to help out another troubled youth, Matt Leinart.
Dearest Matthew,
I wanted to give you a little personal story about me, Jiggy. I am not sure if you can see how it relates to you, but a man with a great education (and SC is clearly one of the top 365 schools in the country in terms of academics) like yours should be able to piece this together.
So there was once this young man, he was a student, we’ll call him Jiggy. He went to one of the top academic institutions in America. From the time he was little, all he ever wanted to do was become a corporate finance investment banker for Goldman Sachs. Goldman was the pinnacle for him. When he was little, he and his father would go over the Wall Street Journal together and bandy stock ideas about. And from the time he was in elementary school, he would enter finance and investing competitions. Much of that effort contributed to him attending The University of Chicago, one of the foremost schools in the country in all academics, but almost always at the top in terms of economics. Granted most of the tough finance competition was usually out East, in New York and Pennsylvania, he wanted to take a shot with a western school. Well, young Jiggy did great. He was the captain of the finance team in his sophomore year. He led his team to a share of the number one ranking that year. During that year, his team won not in spite of him, but certainly not because of him. That all turned around during his junior season. That year he led his finance team to an unquestionable national title. They were crowned and he was clearly, the MVP. At the end of that competition, Goldman offered him that coveted job. And what is more, they didn’t even expect him to finish his education. He was ready for the big time. Do you know what he did Matt?
He took the effing job. And he wouldn’t have even had 315 pound linebackers chasing him and potentially ending his career. Matt, you are not a bright man for staying in college. (Part of this is sour grapes because you could have made a terrific first pick for my niners but I digress.) Matt, I know you have an insurance policy in case one of those angry aforementioned linemen catches you and end your playing days. But have you thought of the more likely risk? The most likely outcome is that you don’t perform nearly as well this year as you did last year. This is simply a mean reversion theory you can’t possibly be that much better than the rest of the QBs in the NCAA and so one of the other ones (or bunch of other ones) will have a great season and yours will be average. Additionally, it is extremely unlikely that you go undefeated again and win another championship. In fact the probability of you going undefeated is something like 1 in 4096 (granted, that is assuming you are equally likely to win or lose any game) but let’s assume that you only have a 25% chance of losing any game, that is still a 1 in 32 chance. Those are not great odds, and believe me, when you are facing Cal again you will not be a huge favorite.
So, some pundits have argued that you like being a big man on campus. I assume it helps you with the ladies. Try earning $15 million and still looking the same, only now being flown around the country (first class) staying at expensive hotels and also, being a back-up so there is no chance of injury. I bet that lifestyle comes complete with threesomes every night with chicks way hotter than your model girlfriend. (Readers, it wouldn’t hurt to do a quick Google Search on his girlfriend, Veronica Kay.)
Additionally, don’t think that Pete Caroll is too concerned with your future, to him, you are just a meal ticket. You keep winning, keep putting fans in the seats, keep getting on the covers of magazines and you will be helping USC not you. And how much are they going to pay you for all of this? I will give you a hint it is fuck-all.
So here is my prediction, USC will go about 9-2 and finish in the top 15. There will be a better QB next year and you will get hurt during some part of the season not enough to end your career, but enough to make the scouts wonder. Matt, go to the NFL. This has probably been your dream (except for the Janine Lindemuller ones) since you were cognizant. Now you have a chance to be the number one pick in the draft and leave the college game at the pinnacle. Matt, for your sake, please reconsider. Don’t be a moron, and for the love of God, don’t fall for that rah rah bullshit.
xoxo
Jiggy
Now back to the Superbowl.
Although the spread sheet tells me to go another way, I am afraid that I am obligated to go with the Patriots. The breakdown is frightfully short. You have two teams that have been playing extremely well. They have each clobbered the competition and are now poised to take home the glory (and I assume that means that they all get bonuses and tons of ass not normal groupie ass, but superbowl ass you know, young, beautiful, tan, strong ass, that swallows and has twin sisters the good stuff).
But Jiggy, why are you so confident in the Pats? All my blathering can be summed up in one little anecdote about the recent press maneuverings. An associate of mine described it thusly, the Eagles are all so excited to be in Jacksonville, they are taking photos of one another and savoring every moment. Whilst the Pats are all about business. It reminds me of Fast Eddie Felson…
EDDIE
You can't see it, can you, Charlie? I mean,
you've never been able to see it. I came after
him. And I'm gonna get him. I'm goin' with him
all the way. The pool game is not over until
Minnesota Fats says it's over. Is it over,
Fats?
He stands before Fats and Bert Gordon, waiting for an answer. Fats and
Bert exchange glances but nothing is said.
EDDIE(to Bert)
I'm gonna beat him, mister. I beat him all
night and I'm gonna beat him all day.
Still no reply, no sign of giving in. Eddie starts to go back to his
chair, suddenly turns, a weary, clowning smile on his face.
EDDIE
I'm the best you ever seen, Fats. I'm the best
there is. Now even if you beat me, I'm still
the best.
Eddie walks over to the water cooler.
BERT
(quietly, to Fats)
Stay with this kid. He's a loser.
The point is that the Eagles already think they have accomplished it all. Even if the Pats beat them, they think they are still the best. As such, one knows that the Eagles don’t have shot.
But anyway, let’s go through the match ups…
Defense
Pats v. Eagles
This has to go to the Patriots. Yes, the Eagles D has been alright, but they have been playing against inferior competition. And the Pats have only shut down two of the more prolific offenses in the last two games, not to mention hammering the Colts and holding them to a field goal. Advantage Pats
Running Game
Brian ‘mini me’ Westbrook v. Corey ‘I want to release my years of Bungle frustration on someone’ Dillon
Come on man. Maybe you could argue that Westbrook has a quicker first step or can catch the ball better. But if you want speed and catching ability, go get a wideout. Dillon is an every-down runner that can pound it out as well as make a nifty move and then turn on the jets. Dillon is the whole package and he has so much to prove that he will undoubtedly be at the top of his game. I like Brian, but he isn’t in the same class as Dillon. Advantage Pats
Receiving Corps
Freddy ‘fright night’ Mitchell (the people’s champ), T.O., Todd Pinkston v. Deion Branch, David ‘don’t call me robin’ Givens, Troy Brown
Wow, this is like one big bag o’ shit. Obviously the whole story here is Terrell. Now I am a big T.O. fan and like what he brings to the game, but I am just not convinced that he is going to be healthy. And if he ain’t in the game, then this little matchup becomes laughable. Fright Night (though a gutty bruin to the core) is not an NFL starter and Todd Pinkston is going to be the answer to some AFLAC trivia question in four years. Now the Eagles are weak at receiver, but the Patriots aren’t much better. In fact the Patriots remind me of the guy on the gong show (http://thegongshow1976.com/) that would wear the paper bag over his head and dance. I am not sure what that means. But I will say this, the best defensive back in this bunch is definitely Troy Brown. With an injured, but playing TO, this is a draw, with a healthy TO this goes to the Birds and with no TO it is a walkover for the Pats. Advantage = Draw
QB
Donovan ‘campbell’s soup’ McNabb v. Tom ‘greg’ Brady
This is actually an interesting discussion. You have a more athletic guy, with a bigger arm versus a guy who is described as a ‘game manager.’ All y’all out there who like the Mike Vicks of the world and the Peyton Mannings of the world, you can have McNabb, but when the chips are down, I want Tom Brady running my offense. (Unless of course this is fantasy football in which case, I would gladly have any of the two aforementioned guys.) I used to think Brady was just a relatively smart guy with some marginal athletic talent and a great coach. And you know what, I was right. But he did show me a thing or two during the Pittsburgh game homeboy can launch the pig. He can get the rock down the field in a hurry. So that gave the Eagles a little something else to worry about. In the type of game that I expect this one to be, I am all over Brady. I think he will make fewer errors, panic less and be less affected by the media spotlight. Brady went from Michigan (talk about national attention) to a two Superbowl MVP trophies he will be as cool as the other side of the pillow. McNabb went from Syracuse (without Shawn Moore to Herman Moore, this school would only be known for its basketball) to flame outs in the NFC Championship game like 22 years in a row. Advantage = Pats
Coach
Bill ‘fashion police’ Belicheck v. Andy ‘down syndrome’ Reid.
From WebMD
What is Down syndrome?
People with Down syndrome have an extra or irregular chromosome in some or all of their body's cells. The chromosomal abnormalities impair physical and mental development. Most people with Down syndrome have distinctive physical features and mild to moderate below-normal intelligence.
What causes Down syndrome?
The extra or irregular chromosomes related to Down syndrome result from abnormal cell division in the egg before or after it is fertilized by sperm. Less often, the abnormal cell division occurs in sperm before conception. It is not known why the cells divide abnormally.
What are the signs?
Signs of Down syndrome usually appear at birth or shortly thereafter. Many children with the condition have a flat face, small ears and mouth, and broad hands and feet, although these features vary from person to person. Most young children have a lack of muscle tone (hypotonia), which generally improves by late childhood.
Often developmental disabilities result from the combination of a lower intelligence level and physical limitations related to Down syndrome. Heart defects, intestinal abnormalities, and irregular ear and respiratory tract structures can also occur and cause additional symptoms or lead to complications.
I rest my case. In all seriousness, this is not even close. Belicheck has shown the ability to achieve peak performance from his players week in and week out as well as being able to create strategies that expose other teams weaknesses. This one is probably the key to the game. Advantage = Pats
And finally, I am taking the under.
Final score prediction
31-10 Pats
Have a great offseason.
Superbowl Sunday New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles - Pats -7 / Under 47.5
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Contact Jiggy at jiggy@wagercom.com or post your questions/comments on the Wagercom Message Board
Check the current point spreads and game lines.
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